What's next for the sugar-free beverage market?

The national healthy lifestyle advocates "three reductions", namely: salt reduction, oil reduction, sugar reduction, excessive sugar intake will lead to obesity rate, related disease prevalence rate rose simultaneously, threatening human health
.

Too much sugar intake affects health

Sugar-free beverages usher in a period of development opportunities

The World Health Organization (WHO) has repeatedly pointed out that excessive intake of free sugars increases the risk
of diseases such as caries, obesity, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia.

Sugary drinks are one of the main sources of sugar intake, and the WHO recommends that the daily intake of sugar for adults is best around 25 grams, but the sugar content of a single bottle of sugary drinks is generally greater than 25 grams
.

Since 2016, China has introduced various health plans/plans to encourage residents to reduce sugar intake from the perspective of knowledge dissemination, standard definition and guidance, and at the same time vigorously develop the natural sweetener industry to better replace sucrose
.

Driven by the guidance of national policies and the improvement of national health awareness, the food and beverage industry has set off a boom in low-sugar/sugar-free consumption, and sugar substitutes of "a little sweet taste", "calorie without pressure" and "sugar-free" have become a common practice
.

At present, China is in the early stage of the development of sugar-free carbonated drinks, compared with European and American countries at least 10 times the room for improvement; Sugar-free tea drinks are in the early stage of the outbreak, accounting for only 5.

The era of national sugar reduction

The new sweetener becomes a better solution

Sugar substitutes are not sugar in nature, but they can help food produce sweetness like sugar, also known as a sweetener
.

Erythritol is superior to artificial sugar substitutes and is a new raw material
on the market today.

However, erythritol as a kind of sugar alcohol, there are natural defects, long-term consumption of people with weak gastrointestinal tolerance will form a digestive burden, causing flatulence or abdominal sounds, and as the hottest raw material in the current market, its cost has also risen
in the situation of soaring demand.

In August 2021, the National Health Commission accepted the application of D-aloxoose as a new food raw material, and it is expected that the use of aloxone sugar as a sweetener will be approved
in the second half of 2023 or 2024.

The growth rate of the sugary beverage market has slowed down

In the future, more sugar-free series will be developed

According to statistical estimates, the market size of traditional sugary soft drinks (mainly including tea drinks, functional drinks, fruit juice drinks, carbonated drinks, coffee drinks, etc.

The traditional beverage market as a whole belongs to the mature development stage, the overall user base is huge, and the categories contained are rich and diverse, it is expected that the overall market can grow from 415.

China's sugar-free beverage market has risen more than 4 times from about 3.

The "Report" predicts that China's sugar-free beverage market in 2026 will reach 30.

The proportion of sugar-free drinks in the overall beverage market will gradually increase from about 1% in 2016 to more than 6% in 2026, mainly due to the pursuit of health by a large number of consumers, sugar-free drinks for them to enjoy a refreshing taste while achieving a sugar-reduced diet is a quick choice, this advantage can attract some of the original refuse to sweet beverage consumers, functional publicity + drinking effect + product richness = comprehensive increase in sugar-free beverage market share
.

Because aloxulose is not put into use in the Chinese market at this stage, so the setting of neutral, optimistic and pessimistic three expected measures of market size: the main basis of pessimistic estimation is that aloxulose is insufficient optimization for erythritol, and now the zero sugar market has a part of the stable customer base, the emergence of aloxone sugar requires enterprises to upgrade market education, only a small number of low price sensitivity, willing to taste new users and diabetic patients and other special groups; Optimistically, the emergence of aloxulose is a renewal of the sugar-free world, and many advantages can achieve the same effect as the market penetration rate of erythritol in the early days; Neutral estimates are in the middle of optimistic and pessimistic estimates
.

The "Report" believes that after the entry of allulose sugar into the market, it is expected to cause a new round of zero-sugar drinks, because the zero-sugar beverage market already has a stable customer base, and its penetration rate will be slightly lower than that of erythritol sugar-substitute drinks, reaching 0.
2%.

In 2023, it is expected to reach a market size of 753 million yuan, and in 2030, it is expected to reach a market size of 6.
077 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 37.
46%, rapidly expanding
the market size.

Horizontal and vertical product layout expands new growth opportunities

Take the initiative in raw materials and establish high standards

Horizontal expansion Following the trend of health development, "zero sugar" will develop in the future, and it is not limited to the range of
drinks.
Enterprises should seize the opportunity to expand the scope of coverage, launch more product lines on the basis of mastering the core raw materials, expand the company from the zero-sugar beverage market to the zero-sugar diet market, and establish its own full range of healthy brand image while rapidly expanding the market share
.

Vertical expansion Constantly develop new categories and innovate self-creation capabilities
.
Irregularly launch new products, maintain product freshness, enrich their own inventory while attracting new people, and quickly establish an image to deepen the memory of
their own products in the hearts of consumers.
Through classic products + new elements, creating new topics and triggering new interests of consumers, such as integrating into the concept of festivals, adding a little "new meaning" to new products, the rendering of consumer emotions will be more sufficient
.
Seize the healthy and fresh pursuit boom, new product development at the same time add "functionality" and "seasonal freshness" to provide consumers with more opportunities to pay for health, such as adding probiotics, sleep aids, decompression ingredients, while increasing profit margins
for enterprises.

Master raw materials As the core link and main cost item of beverage development, the total raw material cost of a bottle of carbonated beverage accounts for about 40%-50%
of the total cost.
In the tea beverage industry, the raw material cost of the average cup of tea is 38.
4% of the total cost, in order to ensure that customers can get a stable and high-quality product experience, Nesher has been deep upstream since its inception, focusing on creating a supply of
high-quality raw materials.

The "Report" concludes that the raw materials used in sugar-free drinks can be divided into two parts: one is to create a "sugar-free" core sugar substitute ingredient, and enterprises should combine scientific research to continuously explore and use a variety of zero-sugar ingredients, such as erythritol and aloxone sugar, on the one hand, to prevent being supplied by the upstream supply of card neck, on the other hand, to create more new functional products with the unique advantages of different ingredients; The second refers to the unique raw materials used in new taste products, such as cherry blossoms, hawthorn, tangerine peel, etc.
, before launching new products, establish cooperation with the upstream supply chain, give priority to acquisition or development, master the cost control of core raw materials and cooperate with marketing to launch new products, and take the initiative into their own hands
.

(Luo Chen)

China Food News (2022-09-26 07 edition)

(Editor-in-charge: Luo Chen)