What level can corn prices rise to this year

Introduction: 1 In the function of seasonal price difference, the downward market has changed for 8 months In normal years, there is obvious seasonal difference in the price of corn in China: after the listing of new corn, due to the increase of supply, the price began to go down, and the declining market generally continued to about March of the next year, followed by the rising market, and continued to the market of new corn The trend curve of corn price in the whole year shows the inverted saddle type The depth and duration of the decline, as well as the time from falling to rising, are determined by the market supply and demand situation in that year According to the monitoring of the national grain and oil information center, the national corn market has seen a slight rise in general this year, and the signs of recovery show that the national corn price decline for eight months is changing At present, in the central part of Jilin Province, the average ex warehouse price of medium-sized corn has risen slightly to 950-970 yuan / ton, up 5-10 yuan / ton from the first ten days of March At the end of the Spring Festival, the price of corn in the region showed signs of rising Some grain storage and receiving enterprises raised the average ex warehouse price to 950-960 yuan / ton, but the market demand was still small at that time, making the actual transaction price still at the level before the Spring Festival In the middle of March, the increase of corn trading volume played a positive supporting role in the price rise In the whole country, the price of corn rose seasonally, most of which began with the price rise in East China, South China and North China East China and South China, as the main corn markets, are very sensitive to the changes of market supply and demand Huang Huai Region of North China is not only the main corn producing area, but also the main corn selling area Its sensitivity to the change of market supply and demand is higher than that of Northeast China and lower than that of East China and South China The change of corn price in Huanghuai area of North China is often the signal of the change of corn market in China; the rise of corn market in China is finally marked by the rise of corn price in Northeast China 2 In the next few months, driven by seasonal factors, will corn prices continue to rise, or will they fluctuate, or will they start to fall in advance as they did last year? 1 Analysis of current supply and demand situation of corn market: since 1995, the annual output of corn in China has steadily exceeded 100 million tons, the situation of corn oversupply in the domestic market has become increasingly serious Although China's corn export reached 10.46 million tons in 2000, and the corn output decreased by 17% compared with the previous year, the supply pressure in the domestic market is still great Under normal circumstances, the price of corn will fall seasonally after new corn is put on the market However, in 2001, the national corn price fell in advance from the middle of July According to the estimation of relevant organizations, the annual consumption level of corn in China is about 120 million tons If the current domestic corn consumption level is indeed 1.2 million tons, then the domestic corn production in the past two years is lower than the current consumption Production is less than demand, coupled with a large number of exports, corn stocks should be reduced, and supply pressure should be reduced But now there is a puzzling phenomenon Although the National Statistics Department reports that the output is decreasing, and the existence of corn in the state-owned food sector is still growing, which has recently reached a record high It is of great significance to estimate the domestic corn consumption level correctly for the analysis of the total balance of supply and demand and the prediction of the market trend With the help of relevant departments, the staff of the State Grain and Oil Information Center collected the production, import and export, inventory and other quantities over the years, and calculated the corn consumption Then, according to the principle that domestic consumption basically shows linear growth under normal conditions, we judge the change of society and farmers' grain storage based on experience, and use the change data to modify the calculated corn consumption The preliminary results show that the current corn consumption level in China is 110 million tons, 10 million tons lower than the original estimate In recent years, the average increase of annual consumption is about 1.5 million tons At present, China's corn consumption level is only 110 million tons, so the domestic market in 2001 / 2002 is not that the current year's output is less than the current year's consumption, but that the current year's consumption is less than the current year's output That is to say, the pressure of supply continues to increase, but the degree of increase is greatly reduced 2 Analysis of the factors affecting the decline of corn price: treatment of aged grain and rotation of old stock In order to improve the quality of grain stocks, the country is expected to handle a considerable amount of aged grain this year In the fourth quarter of last year, two wholesale markets, Dalian and Zhengzhou, competed for Chenhua grain, which had little impact on the market due to the small quantity Although it is estimated that the amount of aged grain processed in 2002 will be less than that in 1999, there will be a considerable amount of overdue stored grain to be rotated this year, and the two kinds of grain together will be very large After the low price grain sources occupy the normal corn consumption market, it will have a great impact on the price trend of corn In 1998, the total corn output reached a record 132.95 million tons, an increase of 27.5% over the previous year In 1999, the total yield of corn remained at a high level Although the yield of 128.09 million tons was lower than that of the previous year, it was still the second high-yield year in history Even if the inventory factor is not considered, the new supply is far greater than the total consumption In 1999, the state began to deal with aged grain, which totaled nearly 40 billion jin of aged grain, further increasing the supply pressure, and the corn market fell all the way In the normal year, the change of corn market basically shows four stages, namely: decline stop decline rise decline But in 1998 / 1999, there was no upward trend In addition to February 1999, affected by Festival factors, the price stopped slightly, and then continued to decline This time, the decline started in October 1998 and lasted for 18 months until April 2000 -- on the impact of China's accession to the WTO According to the national grain and oil information center, China's corn import may reach 2 million tons in 2002 The increase of imports will further increase the supply pressure in the domestic market, and the market pressure caused by the increase of imports of corn in the first year of China's accession to the WTO is likely to be magnified for psychological reasons In order to increase the market attraction of domestic corn, we need to take many practical measures to reduce the purchase cost At present, the contradiction between corn supply and demand mainly exists in the Northeast production area Due to the implementation of protection price acquisition, the sales price is higher than the market price in the Guannei area, so the sales has been greatly affected Efforts to increase exports and expand corn sales in the Northeast are the only effective way to alleviate inventory in the northeast 3 It is expected that the recovery rate of corn price will not be too large Due to the restorative growth of domestic output, the increase of supply pressure and the increase of factors affecting the decline of corn price compared with last year, it is expected that the upward range of corn price in this year will be smaller than that in normal years, and the possibility of fluctuation is very large, so the highest price in the first half of last year should not occur The current uptrend is likely to stop when large quantities of aged grain enter the market and imported corn arrive It is suggested that grain management enterprises around the country pay close attention to various policy factors affecting the corn market, have a clear understanding of the seasonal recovery process of corn nationwide, seize the powerful opportunity to expand sales, and grasp the initiative of the market (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: