What is the more fundamental reason behind the price rise of grain and oil

Introduction: Recently, the increase of grain and oil prices in some parts of the country has attracted widespread attention 5CP from the perspective of the phenomenon, the direct reasons for the price increase of grain and oil are as follows: first, due to the weather and other reasons, grain production has been reduced, for example, the price of wheat per kilogram has increased by about 0.06 yuan Second, the national wheat inventory has been decreasing year by year, and now it has an impact on the market Third, the rise in food prices has led to the rise in feed prices In addition, due to the disaster in the south, the supply of pork is tight and the cost of pork increases Fourth, wheat prices have risen in the international market, and soybean production in the United States has been cut by about 10%, which also has an impact on the domestic market In particular, the import of finished soybean products has accounted for about half of the free consumption, which directly affects the price of edible oil 5CP but these factors are only incentives What are the more fundamental reasons behind them? It should be said that China's agricultural product market is still dominated by domestic supply (accounting for more than 95%), and the changes in the price of agricultural products in the international market, except for a few varieties such as soybeans, have little impact on China Therefore, the reason for the price fluctuation is still the domestic supply, that is, agricultural production The decline of agricultural products output and the recent increase of grain and oil prices for three years in a row are signals that we must analyze the agricultural problems in depth, and ensure the stability of agricultural products supply while maintaining the rapid growth of the whole national economy, which is also an important part of solving the problem of Agriculture, rural areas and farmers that is widely concerned 5CP economists tell us that the factors that determine supply are system, resource investment and technological progress The analysis of the supply of agricultural products should start from these three factors From the system point of view, the household contract system has effectively promoted the development of agriculture in China But this system must also keep pace with the times, that is to say, it must be adjusted and improved with the progress of the times In recent years, there are two problems to be solved in perfecting this system First, how to protect the farmers' right to contract for 50 years, or even longer Second, how to guide the household contract to achieve scale management If these two problems are not solved systematically, it is difficult to guarantee the stable development of agriculture As far as the current situation is concerned, the main impact on agricultural production is input, which includes manpower, land and other inputs In order to make farmers willing to increase investment, the first thing is to ensure that the income of investment is greater than the cost The phenomenon of not making money or even losing money in farming is more serious in some areas Farmers' enthusiasm for farming is frustrated, and the phenomenon of land waste is quite considerable On the one hand, the price of chemical fertilizer, agricultural machinery, seeds, pesticides and other inputs is rising, on the other hand, the price of agricultural products is stagnant It should be said that in the market economy, agricultural products are a completely competitive market, and low prices are inevitable Farmers themselves cannot solve this problem The way out lies in the government's direct supply to farmers The price of agricultural products is determined by the market, and the government should not intervene Only by the government's supply to farmers can we solve the problem of increasing their income, encourage farmers to increase their input and maintain stable production The price rise of agricultural input should also be restrained by market methods Only by protecting farmers' land can they increase their income, they will increase their input and production Only when production is stable and meets the needs of the whole economic development can the price of agricultural products be stable Land is an important part of agricultural investment The occupation of arable land in some places has also reduced agricultural production This should also be noted 5CP people have a deep understanding of the role of technological progress in manufacturing and high-tech industries 5CP but this also applies to agriculture To meet the demand of people's consumption and production of agricultural products with less and less agricultural population and land, the progress of agricultural technology is crucial Unfortunately, the investment in technology in agriculture has been relatively small in recent years There is a lack of major breakthroughs in agricultural technology, and the number of agricultural technicians at the grass-roots level is even decreasing The significant difference between agricultural technology progress and manufacturing technology progress lies in that the development of Applied Technology in manufacturing industry can be carried out by enterprises, but agricultural technology progress completely depends on the state Farmers themselves have no ability to achieve technological progress After all, their strength is too small In developed countries, the basic scientific research and applied research of agriculture are invested by the state, and are applied by farmers free of charge Agricultural scientific and technological personnel should also be supported by the state Without the full investment and promotion of the state, agricultural technology can not progress The price rise of grain and oil in 5CP should be a short-term phenomenon Although there is a rush to buy in some places, it will not cause serious problems On the whole, the supply of grain and oil is sufficient But this kind of price rise is also a kind of warning, reminding us to attach importance to agricultural problems If we can see the underlying problems in the phenomenon of rising prices, we can turn bad things into good things and provide a stable agricultural foundation for China's economic prosperity 5CP