What is behind China's GM policy?

Introduction: Dan buss of DTN agricultural resources thinks that China may be the best trader in the world This is the judgment made by DTN's market analysis experts on Thursday when answering the basic principles of China's ambiguous genetically modified regulations China's operating principle is that when China needs soybeans, they will still buy them, and China wants to do so Dan buss said there must be some reasons for China to start testing genetically modified products All of a sudden, they don't want the commodities that you and I have given them for several years Dan bass believes that the real reason China doesn't want to import soybeans at present is that Chinese farmers are ready to plant their own soybeans "Before sowing, the Chinese government tried to raise the purchase price of soybeans to protect the interests of farmers China is worried about their farmers, and also about the future of China's agriculture Their final conclusion may be to plant less products that are not right Therefore, the analyst believes that China's GM regulations are a strategy to support domestic soybean prices, although this support is temporary When the price of agricultural products is too low, the Chinese government is very clear about the consequences and situation of every major reform step they take But Dan buss said that once the dust is settled in China, China will soon issue the safety certificates needed to import genetically modified products Since 1991 / 92, China's total and unit soybean production has been stable, which is the main reason why China's soybean import has increased in a straight line In addition, China's import direction has changed from the simple import of soybean meal and soybean oil to the overall import of soybeans to meet the needs of domestic wet pressing enterprises If you don't have the capacity to meet the 30 million tons of soybean needs of the crushing enterprises, you have to shut them down Dan bath doesn't think that will happen You can be out of business, but you can't shut down these businesses In the end, China will import soybeans, even RoundupReady soybeans Since the Chinese government has implemented the qualitative principle for the detection of genetically modified soybeans, it is particularly important for us soybeans to obtain the necessary safety certificate for exporting genetically modified products to China, which is impossible for China Even if you are sure that your soybeans are not genetically modified, if your soybeans arrive at Chinese ports, the test shows that your soybeans contain certain genetically modified ingredients, and your soybeans have to turn around and return to China No exporter is willing to take such a risk But the analyst also noted that the United States appears to be the only exporter that is most qualified to obtain these security certificates The fact that Rio Grande in the south of Brazil has planted at least 40% of RoundupReady soybeans is more acceptable to the public This country cannot obtain the safety certificate because the Brazilian government claims that its domestic soybeans are non GMO soybeans If Brazil's soybeans arrive in China, can they pass China's qualitative test? The answer is impossible Therefore, Buss believes that from March 20, when the GMS regulations came into force, China may abandon the soybean market and temporarily put the import issue on hold when its farmers are about to plant At the same time, the safety certificate from the United States will be purchased after it is obtained China has 60-90 days to decide the issuance of the GMS certificate This puts the United States in a position to accumulate its share in the international market China's genetically modified regulations should be under the name of quality inspection regulations For example, a few years ago, China used such regulations to resist wheat shipped from the Pacific Northwest Coast of the United States The reason is that China is worried that as a member of the WTO, China and we are in a relatively harmonious trading family Can such strict quality inspection regulations win? Bass, an analyst at DTN, thinks it's difficult In the case of animal and plant inspection and quarantine, the party who publishes such regulations often wins Although China is now a member of the WTO, it still tries to carry out free trade through intellectual property, according to us analysts, for example, Under the provisions of WTO, China will open the markets of wheat, rice, corn and soybean oil At present, the Chinese government has established a tariff quota system In fact, it still says that "we (China) have opened the market, but for non-state-owned or private enterprises, it is only a small part of the market "For example, for wheat, the quota mechanism means that only 800000 tons are owned by private importers Private corn purchases are only allowed for 54 million bushels The quota of cotton and soybean oil is relatively large Sk2