What about corn, soybeans and pork in the third quarter? What do you think of the situation?

The third quarter of China's agricultural products market operation is basically stable - the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Market and Information Technology Department responsible for the reporter asked a few days ago, reporters from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was informed that since the third quarter, China's agricultural products market supply is generally adequate, the market operation is basically stable, by the recovery of consumption-driven prices in general stable rise.
reporter interviewed the relevant person in charge of the Marketing and Information Technology Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on related issues.
: In the third quarter of this year, China's agricultural products market performance of what characteristics? A: According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China's wholesale agricultural product price index of 119.34 (compared with 100 in 2015) in the third quarter, up 2.24 points month-on-month and 7.67 points year-on-year.
varieties, grain prices recovered, volatility is still in a reasonable range, corn prices rose relatively large, has stabilized recently; Affected by natural disasters, vegetable prices rose, the average price of 28 kinds of vegetables rose 11.7% month-on-month in the third quarter, the price of aquatic products rose slightly, but overall in line with seasonal laws;
Looking ahead to the market, this year's summer grain, early rice has been harvested, autumn grain harvest has also been finalized, pork market supply will continue to improve, "basket" production situation is good, to maintain the smooth operation of the agricultural products market has a solid foundation.
Later around the autumn grain will gradually enter the centralized market period, in the year-round grain production, adequate inventory of the fundamentals, food prices rise or fall is not likely, all aspects should be a comprehensive rational view of market fluctuations, farmers should reasonably arrange the pace of grain sales, sell a good price, to avoid poor custody caused by the loss of bad grain, traders and processing enterprises do not need to hoard and buy, to prevent speculation brought about by the risk.
: This year's wheat production, but prices continue to rise, the main reason is what, the late trend? In addition, wheat imports increased significantly over last year, what is the reason, will it affect China's wheat market? A: After the new wheat market this year, wheat prices rose steadily, supported by multiple positive factors.
first, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu and Henan provinces have started the minimum purchase price of wheat implementation plan, forming a bottom support.
is that corn prices rise by a large margin, wheat forage demand increased, the price pull is obvious.
is affected by the outbreak, the market bullish expectations increased, some large grain farmers and traders to sell, short-term food sources are tight.
overall, wheat price increases are the recovery of rising production costs and years of depressed grain prices, the increase is not very large, is a normal range of fluctuations.
mid-July, the country has increased the minimum purchase price of wheat delivery, the market supply of grain is sufficient, some traders at the risk of loose selling mentality, wheat prices have gradually stabilized.
September, Zhengzhou grain wholesale market ordinary wheat per kilogram of 1.20 yuan, up 0.7% month-on-month, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, 5.9% year-on-year.
At present, China's wheat stocks in the whole society more than a year of consumption, the government reserve adjustment capacity is strong, can fully guarantee the supply of rations market, later with a large number of autumn grain market, corn prices stabilize, wheat prices will maintain a steady trend.
the domestic market is better, wheat imports increased significantly.
, according to customs statistics, from January to August, China's cumulative wheat imports amounted to 4.99 million tons, an increase of 137 percent year-on-year.
But the absolute increase in imports is not much, imports accounted for china's output and consumption of the proportion is still very low, and high-quality strong ribs, weak ribs wheat-based, for variety adjustment, to meet the growing demand for baked food processing, China's wheat market operation has little impact.
Reporter: This year's outbreak of new crown pneumonia has brought a certain impact on domestic production and life, from the end of August to the beginning of September in the northeast region was hit by a typhoon, please ask how much impact these emergencies on corn production and market? What is the trend of the corn market in the latter stages? A: First of all, the impact of the outbreak.
Although the first quarter of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the normal operation of the corn market caused a certain impact, but with the outbreak was effectively controlled, corn purchase and sale quickly returned to normal, the beginning of April compared with the same period last year, the progress of grain sales has been basically flat, the impact of the epidemic on the fundamentals of corn supply and demand is generally limited, more in the market psychology and expectations of the impact.
to talk about corn production this year.
This year corn planting area is basically stable, the overall trend is better, at the end of August and early September, the northeast production area suffered three consecutive typhoons, some areas of corn collapse, but when the typhoon occurred in most areas of corn growth has entered the late wax cooked, the yield has been basically formed, and the disaster-stricken areas are better, the total corn production is expected to increase steadily this year.
From the corn market trend, this year by the demand growth and market speculation factors, corn prices continue to rise, in August, the average wholesale price of production and sales areas reached 2270 yuan per ton and 2444 yuan, respectively, is the 2016 corn storage system reform Since the new high, but after entering September, with the gradual listing of new corn, as well as the auction of corn, prices have shown a certain seasonal decline, the average monthly wholesale price in September production area of 2222 yuan per ton, down 2.1% month-on-month.
Later in the year, with the gradual increase in the market volume of corn in the main producing areas, the export of corn, traders to speed up the sale of grain in hand, as well as imported corn and substitutes to Hong Kong, corn market supply situation will gradually turn loose, in the short term prices are expected to remain stable or slightly lower.
: This year's rice prices opened high, the main reason is what? What is the price trend after the late mid-to-late rice market? A: This year, the state issued a series of policies to support food production, raise the minimum purchase price of early rice and medium- and late-night rice, and co-ordinate the integration of funds of more than 4 billion yuan to support the resumption of double-season rice production in the main rice producing areas, early rice cultivation area for many years after the decline to resume growth, although affected by the floods in the south, the average yield of early rice decreased, but the total output was increased.
the price of early rice increased, mainly the central and local reserve replenishment demand increased, and the market has relatively few high-quality grain sources, the lowest purchase price increase also formed a certain support for the price.
In these years, rice prices are generally down, farmers grow early rice basically do not make money, this year's price recovery, is conducive to protecting farmers' enthusiasm to grow early rice, promote early rice production next year, and better ensure the absolute safety of national rations.
At present, the southern new season in the middle and late rice began to list, the market body actively acquired, the overall high price opened steadily, it is expected that the late market trend is similar to early rice, the acquisition price will be stable and strong, and the proportion of market-oriented acquisitions further increased, high-quality price characteristics more obvious.
Due to the current national rice stocks sufficient, more than a year of consumption, and this year's rice harvest has been finalized, the market supply is fully guaranteed, the possibility of a sharp rise in prices in the later period is unlikely.
: The recent domestic soybean prices from rising to falling, please ask soybean prices to fall for what reason? What is the market situation in the future? A: Since August, domestic soybean prices have fallen back from high levels.
, according to monitoring, in September, the average purchase price of domestic edible soybeans in Heilongjiang was 2.52 yuan per kilogram, down 4.1% month-on-month, and down more than 4% month-on-month for the second consecutive month, up 34.3% year-on-year.
recent decline in domestic soybean prices, mainly due to the new season soybean production on the market, coupled with the National Reserve soybean auction, soybean market supply and demand phase easing.
In early August, Hubei and other middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River production areas of the new season soybeans have been listed, in late September, North China, Northeast soybean production areas have also been harvested and listed, the main trade body wait-and-see psychology gradually strengthened, the production area market transactions turned light.
as of September 25, the State Reserve soybean auction in 2020 sold a total of 1.188 million tons, of which, in the third quarter, a cumulative turnover of 998,000 tons, accounting for 84.0% of the total volume, the domestic soybean market supply increased significantly.
Into the fourth quarter, the new domestic soybean season will usher in a concentrated listing period, as soybean production is expected to continue to recover this year, market supply tends to be loose, prices have the possibility of continuing to fall back high, remind the vast number of soybean farmers to pay attention to market changes, grasp the pace of grain sales, pay attention to prevent market risks.
: The third quarter of domestic edible vegetable oil prices rose sharply, the main reason is what? What is the supply and demand situation of edible vegetable oil in the future? A: In the third quarter of 2020, the price of edible vegetable oil in China generally rose.
Among them, shandong national standard four-grade soybean oil factory average price per ton 6505 yuan, up 16.7% month-on-month;
The first half of the global new crown pneumonia epidemic, domestic and foreign edible vegetable oil prices fell sharply, it should be said that the third quarter of edible vegetable oil prices are still a restorative rise, the main reasons include the following aspects: First, by the rapid recovery of domestic oil consumption.
With china's new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control into normal, food industry consumption has obviously recovered, especially in September, the national primary and secondary schools and the Mid-Autumn National Day, consumer demand further boosted.
is driven by a sharp rise in international edible vegetable oil prices.
Affected by the decline in palm oil production in Malaysia and the Indonesian government's plan to further increase palm oil export tariffs to support biodiesel schemes, the FOB price of 24 degrees of palm oil in Malaysia rose 33.3% YoY in the third quarter, while the average CNF price of soybean oil in South America (FOB plus freight) increased 14.2% YoY.
is supported by rising domestic oil prices.
In 2020, China's rapeseed imports decreased significantly, domestic rapeseed production was lower than expected, the average price of canola plant in Hubei in the third quarter increased by 18.0% YoY;
Looking ahead to the market, with China's northern rapeseed and domestic new peanuts fully listed, coupled with China's continued imports of U.S. soybeans this year, domestic oil and oil supply is guaranteed, but by domestic consumer demand continued to recover, it is expected that domestic edible vegetable oil prices will remain stable and rising trend, the increase is expected to gradually narrow.
: What has been the situation in the pork market since the third quarter? What is the situation and price trend of pork supply and demand in the later period? A: Since the third quarter, as pig production capacity continues to recover, market supply continues to improve, pork prices from the rise to fall, since the end of July has been more than two months in a row to maintain a small fluctuation and decline trend, the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day period market operation is basically stable, prices continue to stabilize.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitoring and dispatching 200 wholesale markets, the average price of the national wholesale pork market in the second week of October 2020 (October 5-11) was RMB44.42 per kilogram, down 2.9% month-on-month and 9.5% year-on-year.
based on the current pork production and consumption situation comprehensive judgment, it is expected that the fourth quarter of domestic pork prices will be mainly volatile operation, volatility will not be too large, more than last year's historical high is unlikely.
, pig production capacity continues to accelerate recovery.
According to data from 400 monitoring counties of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of sows in storage has increased month-on-month for 11 consecutive months since October 2019 and has expanded;
, according to the previous pig production capacity recovery data, the fourth quarter will enter a period of continuous cashing of production capacity, and the growth rate is expected to gradually expand.
addition, the import and stockpile of frozen pork can effectively supplement the market supply.
, according to the General Administration of Customs, pork imports in January-August were 2.91 million tons, up 133.7 percent year-on-year, surpassing the total pork imports for 2019.
other hand, with the new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control situation is improving, China's social and economic activities have steadily resumed, pork demand will gradually increase to normal levels.
according to the National Bureau of Statistics, residents' out-of-home consumption activity increased, and the food and beverage industry showed clear signs of recovery, with food and beverage revenue falling 7.0 percent year-on-year in August, a decline of 25.8 percentage points from June.
fourth quarter is the traditional peak consumption season of pork, consumption growth and pig supply to restore synchronization, supply and demand tension will gradually slow down, pork prices are unlikely to rise or fall.
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