Views on soybean market in the near future

Introduction: (1) soybean market production in Heilongjiang Province this year: according to statistics, the planting area of Heilongjiang Province this year is about 43 million mu If the land not included in the statistical scope is added, the planting area is expected to reach nearly 48 million mu, accounting for 36% of the total planting area of soybean in China This year's climate conditions are very conducive to soybean production, and the investment in science and technology is further strengthened It is expected that this year will be a harvest year In addition, some farms will issue subsidies for planting high oil soybeans (the basic oil content is calculated as 21%, and the price of oil content will increase by 0.03-0.05 yuan / Jin for every percentage point higher) Therefore, this year's soybean quality and per unit yield are expected to be further improved, and the total output of Heilongjiang is expected It should be around 5.5 million tons, accounting for 37% of the country's expected total output, about 10% higher than last year (II) soybean market consumption in Heilongjiang: in 2001, 1.2-1.5 million tons of soybeans were used for oil extraction This year, the agricultural reclamation vigorously promoted the technology of "sugar to oil" and increased the processing capacity It is estimated that this year, the soybean used for oil extraction in Heilongjiang Province should be about 1.5-1.8 million tons, plus 1.5-1.7 million tons of grain left in rural areas and other high-tech processing beans The total demand in Heilongjiang Province is about 3.5 million tons, and the soybean flowing out of Heilongjiang Province is about 2 million tons, accounting for 18-20% of the national production demand gap (3) soybean market price in Heilongjiang Province: the price of car board rose from 1850 yuan / ton at the beginning of April to 1950 yuan / ton at the end of April, continued to rise to 2100 yuan / ton in the middle of May, and reached 2240 yuan / ton in some cities and counties At present, it is stable at 2000-2020 yuan / ton It is expected that the price will slow down from July to August, and should fall back to about 1850-1900 yuan / ton in September to October The main reason for determining the soybean market price is the introduction of a series of genetically modified policies, which makes the soybean price in Heilongjiang province begin to rise, and at present, it is stable at a high level Our government's genetically modified policy is to slow down the speed of soybean import In the short term, the regulations can restrain the excessive influx of foreign soybeans and promote the consumption of domestic soybeans The interests of soybean producers will be protected for the time being, and then the price of Heilongjiang soybeans will be boosted However, with the loading and unloading of two ships in Chiwan and Tianjin new port on June 12, a total of 120000 tons of soybeans arrived at the port, and another ship from Qinhuangdao, Dalian and Zhangjiagang would arrive at the port successively It is estimated that the import volume will be 600000-700000 tons in June, about 1600000-1700000 tons in July, and 9-10 million tons by the end of this year It is reported that the recently arrived soybean duty paid price is about 2100-2200 yuan / ton, so the soybean price in Heilongjiang Province is relatively reasonable at present With the increasing import volume, the price will decline But in the long run, the impact of the regulations on Chinese soybeans is very complex First of all, the regulations will lead to the competition between American non GMO soybeans and Chinese Non GMO soybeans At present, more than 70% of American soybeans are non transgenic soybeans In 2000, about 22.61 million tons of non GMO soybeans were produced in the United States, 7.21 million tons more than China's total output of 15.4 million tons in 2000, more than five times of Heilongjiang's total output of 4.3 million tons in 2000 Its price and quality can fully compete with China's Non GMO soybeans Second, the regulations will to some extent limit the import of soybeans and stimulate the import of soybean oil In 2002, the soybean oil quota was 2.518 million tons, equal to 13.99 million tons of soybeans Although the actual soybean oil import may not reach the quota, the domestic soybean oil price is higher than the international market, and non-state-owned enterprises are allowed to use the quota, so the possibility of increasing soybean oil import is very large The increase of soybean oil import will certainly reduce the domestic soybean pressing volume, and will eventually curb the soybean market price (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: