"Vegetable basket" guarantees a fundamental improvement in pork supply

Vegetables, eggs, and meat are not only the "vegetable basket" products that consumers care about, but also important factors that affect CPI
.

Pork supply has improved fundamentally

Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that on June 11, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 23.
89 yuan/kg, which was 41.
37% lower than the 40.
75 yuan/kg on June 11, 2020
.

"China's pork supply situation has fundamentally improved, and national pig prices have fallen for 20 consecutive weeks
.

Monitoring data from 500 bazaars of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that in the second week of June, the price of live pigs was 16.
24 yuan/kg, compared with 36.
01 yuan/kg in the third week of January, a cumulative decrease of 54.
9%
.

Zhu Zengyong said that the survey found that the current stock of large pigs of more than 150 kilograms still accounts for about 20%, and it is urgent for the market to slowly digest
.

As domestic pig prices have fallen sharply and the economic recovery in Europe and America has driven pig prices back up, the gap between domestic and international pork prices has narrowed significantly
.

"By the end of the first quarter of this year, the national live pig stock has recovered to 417 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 29.
5%, reaching more than 94% at the end of 2017.
It is
expected that the national live pig stock will return to normal in the second quarter, and the supply of live pigs will return to normal in the fourth quarter
.

Egg price rises to a reasonable range

On June 11, the main continuous egg contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 4793 points, a 7.

"This year, the national laying hen inventory will decrease first and then increase.
It is expected to reach the average level of the past three years, which can effectively meet the demand for egg consumption
.

In the first five months of this year, the national average monthly wholesale price of eggs was 8.
84 yuan/kg, 19.
94% higher than the same period in 2020.
Does this mean that the price of eggs this year is too high?

Looking back at the same period in 2020, the national stock of laying hens is at the highest level in the past two years, and the supply of eggs is sufficient, coupled with the new crown pneumonia epidemic that has suppressed consumer demand, causing egg futures and spot prices to continue to fall, and the entire industry suffers serious losses
.

In fact, this year's egg prices have also experienced complex fluctuations.
The wholesale price dropped from 9.
49 yuan/kg in January to 8.
20 yuan/kg in March, a cumulative drop of 13.
59%
.
After that, it continued to rise.
The average price in May was 9.
13 yuan/kg, a cumulative increase of 11.
34%
.

In the first ten days of May, the national wholesale egg price rose slightly by 2.
21%, fluctuated around 9.
19 yuan/kg in the middle, and slowly fell back to 8.
99 yuan/kg on May 31 in the second ten days
.
After entering June, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday boosted demand in the short term.
On June 4, the national wholesale egg price rose to 9.
24 yuan/kg, after which the wholesale egg price fell slightly to 9.
15 yuan/kg on June 11
.
Zhu Ning believes that after the Dragon Boat Festival, egg consumption has dropped significantly, and egg prices will fluctuate
.

What needs to be vigilant is that global corn, soybean meal and other feed prices continue to rise, which has significantly increased the cost of domestic breeding
.

Vegetable prices are seasonally down

"The national vegetable supply is steadily increasing, and vegetable prices are mainly seasonally down
.
" said Zhang Jing, chief analyst of the vegetable market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
.

In the first half of this year, vegetable price fluctuations basically conformed to the seasonal law, reaching the highest point in the year around the Spring Festival, and seasonally dropping rapidly after the holiday
.
In June (to the 11th), the national average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 4.
27 yuan/kg, a decrease of 6.
8% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 9.
8%
.
In terms of varieties, the prices of 18 kinds of vegetables fell month-on-month, one kind remained the same, and 9 kinds increased
.

"The decline in vegetable prices is because the overall supply capacity has risen steadily
.
" Zhang Jing analyzed
.

This spring, the national vegetable planting area increased by about 1% year-on-year
.
In the first five months, the cumulative trading volume of 28 vegetable national wholesale markets monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs increased by 1.
3% year-on-year
.
In addition, the prices of some vegetables were high last year, and the summer vegetables in some production areas have expanded this year
.
Since May, vegetable production in various regions has been gradually completed.
In summer, vegetables such as solanace fruits, melons, and beans, as well as fast-growing leafy vegetables, will be on the market in large quantities and the supply is sufficient
.
As the temperature continues to rise, vegetable production areas continue to move north, the proportion of the real estate vegetable market is steadily increasing, and the transportation distance is further shortened.
In the short term, there is still room for a 5% to 10% drop in vegetable costs
.

However, Zhang Jing said that there is not much room for the seasonal downward trend in vegetable prices
.
After entering the midsummer, the temperature will further rise, and measures such as cooling and keeping fresh on the way will increase the cost
.
It is expected that as long as there is no large-scale severe weather in the later period, the supply of vegetables will remain stable and increase, and the price of vegetables will still be seasonally downward, with small fluctuations within a reasonable range over the same period of the year
.

"This year, the supply of melons and fruits nationwide is relatively sufficient, and the prices are generally low,
" said Zhao Junye, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
.