Vaccines are sweeter than farmer's mountain springs, selling water tycoon Zhong Wei rely on Wantai creatures "dot stone into gold"

Guide: Before there is the farmer three springs, after there is Wantai creatures, zhongwei can create a new legend againwas founded in April 1991, Wantai Biological, behind the controller is the creation of the health hall and farmer mountain spring brand of the bellafter the outbreak of the new crown outbreak, in addition to the API to obtain the favor of the capital market, vaccine research and development concept shares are high hopesListed companies as long as the vaccine, will be the main explosionSince landing in A-shares on April 29, "Vaccine Star Unit" Wantai Bio (SH:603392) has harvested 26 consecutive one-word boardsAt the closing price of 145 yuan per share on the opening day of the june 9th, it was up 15.57 times from the offering price of 8.75 yuan per sharelucky investors to make $130,000 at a time, making Wantai Bio the most profitable new stock of the year, however, there is a need for rational thinking behind the share price boomThe market value of Wantai Bio can reach 60 billion, mainly because the market identifies it as a vaccine stockAlthough Wantai does have a dicreto-price HPV vaccine product, it is still, in essence, a real medical device company with diagnostic reagents as its main business01 income is not a vaccine
founded in April 1991, Wantai biological, behind the real controller is the creation of the health hall and farmer mountain spring brand of the bellafter 29 years of development, Wantai Biology has been in diagnostic reagents, agent products, diagnostic instruments, hepatitis E vaccine and other four areas to form a product layoutin the field of in vitro diagnosis, Wantai has hepatitis A, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, hepatitis E, AIDS, syphilis, rotavirus, a fetal protein and other more than 50 kinds of in vitro diagnostic reagents production code, is the domestic production of in vitro immunodiagnostic reagents one of the most complete manufacturersin SARS (SARS), H5N1 avian influenza, influenza A(H1N1), EV71 hand, foot and mouth disease, as well as the new crown pneumonia and other major infectious diseases, Wantai's diagnostic reagents have performed well, and in the field of vaccine products, Wantai has two vaccines that are on the marketOne is the world's first hepatitis E vaccine, which went on sale in 2012, and the other is the famous binary human papillomavirus vaccine(Sinkonin), which was approved in December 2019, making it the third and first domestically produced HPV vaccine in china however, due to the high investment, long cycle and high risk of vaccine research and development, Before the vaccine products were marketed, Wantai Bio mainly used in vitro diagnostics as a source of revenue in the product revenue structure, in 2019, The proportion of In vitro Diagnostics business of Wantai Bio to total revenue was 85.9%, of which the revenue of diagnostic reagents and diagnostic instruments was 965 million yuan and 0.25 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 83.77 percent and 2.13 percent In addition, agent products accounted for 12.8% of revenue of 147 million yuan hepatitis E vaccine, though well-known, sales are not ideal Sales for 2017-2019 were RMB3.1888 million, RMB8.1894 million and RMB14.9664 million, respectively, accounting for a very small proportion of revenue source: prospectus visible, in vitro diagnostic business is to support the performance of Wantai biological "weight", the main reason is that the company master advanced immunodiagnostic technology from the technical classification, China's in vitro diagnostic market structure is mainly immunodiagnosis (33%), followed by clinical biochemical diagnosis (24%), blood and body fluid diagnosis (16%) and molecular diagnosis (14%) The diagnostic reagents of Wantai biology belong to the immunodiagnostic category, in this field, chemical luminescence diagnosis is the mainstream technical direction of immunodiagnostics at present, A total of six IVD products (in vitro diagnostic products) in The National Approval System Directory, of which four products are ranked first in the country in the number of individual batch issues 2019, the company's share of enzyme-linked immunodiagnostic reagents reached 40.4% Among them, blood screening is the exclusive market of enzyme-linked immune reagents, products have covered more than 95% of China's blood stations, more than ten consecutive years of blood station market share ranked first However, in the last three years, the proportion of enzyme-linked immunodiagnostic sagents and biochemical reagents has been decreasing, while the proportion of chemical luminous reagents has increased from 4.72% in 2017 to 19.84% in 2019, contributing more and more to performance according to the financial report, sales of chemical luminous reagents in 2016-2019 were RMB605.7 million, RMB43.575 million, RMB96.712 million and RMB228 million, respectively, with a CAGR of 335.4%, a very fast growth rate in the new outbreak of pneumonia, Wantai developed four different types of antibody testing kits, after obtaining THE EUROPEAN Union CE certification, to South Korea, Italy, Hungary, Austria, the Netherlands and other countries for supply According to third-party reports, The total number of overseas orders for The Vantai kit has exceeded 1.5 million, making it a new growth point in vitro diagnostic products contributed to the main revenue of Wantai Bio, but too much reliance on a single product revenue structure, but also for Wantai has brought a certain business worries the hidden worries behind the operation of 02
from the business situation over the years, although Wantai Bio is in the two hot tracks of in vitro diagnosis and vaccines, but its performance growth is not robust enough 2017-2019, The operating income of Wantai Bio was 950 million yuan, 983 million yuan and 1.184 billion yuan, respectively, with yoY growth rates of 12.49%, 3.49% and 20.0% yoY 46%; Net profit was RMB150 million, RMB293 million and RMB209 million, respectively, with yoY growth rates of 1.5%, 94.85% and -28.73%, respectively in-depth, the growth rate of net profit in 2018 was as high as 94.85 percent, due to the company's non-recurring profit and loss of up to 174 million yuan, which transfer of biopharmaceutical technology such as tumor virus drugs, hepatitis B virus therapeutic drugs to the health hall, and obtained 133 million yuan of non-patent technology transfer proceeds However, after deducting non-recurring profit and loss, the net profit attributed to the parent only 119 million yuan, the growth rate is only 6.58%, the growth of the performance is not ideal in fact, the main reason why Vantai's performance growth is not robust is high sales costs on the one hand, because the company's direct sales ratio is generally higher than its competitors The advantage of the direct selling model is that it can directly feel the customer's needs, and the disadvantage is that the sales cost is higher than the distribution model On the other hand, the company's sales revenue is mostly from the sales of in vitro diagnostic reagents products, making the cost rate of instrument sales much lower than reagents, resulting in a generally high rate of sales costs according to the prospectus, Vantai's sales expenses for 2016-2019 were 252 million, 266 million, 266 million and 333 million, respectively, with sales expense rates of 29.86 percent, 28 percent, 27.04 percent and 28.13 percent, respectively, higher than the industry average in research and development, Wantai Bio continues to focus on investment As early as 1998 and 2003, the company launched the hepatitis E vaccine and divalent HPV vaccine research and development projects In the last three years, the company's research and development expenses were 159 million yuan, 138 million yuan and 166 million yuan, respectively, accounting for about 15% of operating income in 2018, for example, The research and development cost rate of 14.04 percent of Wantai Bio is not only higher than the average in vitro diagnostic industry, but also higher than that of the two vaccine giants, Chifei Bio (2.73 percent) and Kantai Bio (8.82 percent) 03 future growth point a pharmaceutical company with revenue of only 1.2 billion yuan, can it support the market value of 60 billion yuan? This is the most important concern of capital markets at the moment the key point of is that The key point of the problem is that The existing in vitro diagnostic business of Wantai Bio needs to maintain steady growth, while the sales of the divalent HPV vaccine directly determine whether the company can continue to maintain a high valuation, high market value in the future as we all know that the global cervical cancer vaccine is currently in short supply, and Wantai's cervical cancer construction project cycle of 3 years, the design of an annual production capacity of 30 million units, can form a certain degree of market supply expectations Because the current market-dominated four-price and nine-valent HPV vaccine can not cover the 9-15 year-old female population, compared with GlaxoSmithKline (three-shot), Wantai not only has a small vaccination program (two injections) unique advantages, but also lower prices (329 yuan / branch), conducive to the low-age group and third-tier cities to quickly occupy the market in addition, due to the need to comply with the World Health Organization PQ certification and international mainstream regulatory requirements, there are currently Thailand, Indonesia, South Africa and other manufacturers with Wantai to negotiate cooperation according to the prospectus, the current domestic suitable for cervical cancer vaccination of 9-45-year-old women a total of about 300 million people, even according to the domestic cervical cancer vaccine price of 1/2 of the imported vaccine (about 300 yuan / dose, 900 yuan / person) calculation, the stock market size is still as high as 270 billion yuan, according to the 1% vaccination rate estimates, market demand of about 2.7 billion yuan if China's cervical cancer vaccine into the planned immunization program, the price of the vaccine fell to 100 yuan / person, according to the domestic annual increase of 9 million women of appropriate age estimates, can also get about 900 million yuan a year in the market increase , the divalent vaccine was officially launched in May On May 18, the vaccination was completed in Hubei Province Maternal and Child Health Hospital, marking the final entry of the domestic HPV vaccine into the "home-made era" In addition, Jiangxi, Yunnan and other places have also started to play binary HPV vaccine however, there is considerable uncertainty about whether the divalent vaccine can actually be released quickly from the actual market situation, the nine-valent vaccine is more popular with women The reason is that the divalent vaccine and the tetravalent vaccine can prevent and control 84.5% of the risk of cervical cancer, while the nine-valent vaccine can prevent 92.1% of cervical cancer from the market performance, in 2019, for example, the number of two-price, four-price, and nine-price HPV vaccines issued in the domestic market was 2.01 million, 5.54 million and 3.32 million, respectively, with the least number of divalent vaccines issued from January to April this year, the total amount of HPV vaccine approval was about 4.52 million doses, an increase of 73% year-on-year However, the number of divalent vaccines continued to decline, to just 94,000, down 71% year-on-year The share of issuances has fallen from 24% in 2018 to 21%, and the market is gradually being squeezed therefore, looking to the future, Wantai biological play, but also need to fall on the development of new products by the end of 2019, Wantai Bio has 10 rapid diagnostic reagents, 4 enzyme-linked immunodiagnostic reagents, 31 chemical luminous diagnostic reagents into clinical trials, clinical evaluation stage, in addition to Wantai 7 vaccines in research products , freeze-dried chickenpox detoxification live vaccine, recombinant hpvvirus double-valent vaccine have entered the third phase of clinical, and the high hopes of the nine-valent HPV vaccine has also entered the second phase of clinical stage note, Vantay and GlaxoSmithKline have signed a global cooperation agreement to jointly develop a new generation of cervical cancer vaccinebased on the basis of original E coli raw nuclear expression vaccine antigen technology and adjuvant technology GlaxoSmithKline will pay Avant a total of 134 million euros (about 1 billion yuan) for the company's cervical cancer vaccine antigen technology, the development of a new cervical cancer vaccine, and share international market sales revenue with Vantay Wantai Bohai, a subsidiary of Wantai Bio, received an initial 11 million euro (about 85 million yuan) milestone payment in November 2019 can expect that with the sale of divalent vaccines, Wantai Bio will usher in the "diagnostic reagents and vaccines" two-wheel drive business model 04 share price "overdraft first and then repay debt" from the advantages, Wantai bio has a very large competitive advantage of the divalent HPV vaccine, and there are many research and development pipeline support, so in the long term, the company has a good investment value The downside, however, is that the company's performance and rising share prices are piling up investment risks on the one hand, the company simply rely on diagnostic reagents revenue, it is difficult to form a market value of more than 60 billion strong logical support At the same time, because the diagnostic reagent industry is in a fully competitive market, market share began to gradually close to the Murray Medical, Antu Biology and other giants Without strong support, it is difficult for the company to maintain rapid growth on the other hand, as of June 11, Wantai Bio-Rolling Price-earnings ratio and static p/E ratio were 215 times and 290 times, respectively, both well above the biopharmaceutical industry's 43.44 times price-earnings ratio, according to Tonghuashun data from the stock price trend, Wantai bio is a typical "overdraft before paying off debt." There is a short-term game space, long-term "mean regression" risk