USDA: world soybean market outlook (12.29)

In December, the U.S Department of agriculture raised its 2000 / 01 global oil crop trade forecast by 2 million tons to 62.9 million tons Almost all oil crop export forecasts have been raised this month, but the increase in soybean and sunflower seed exports accounted for most of the total increase The soybean trade volume has increased by almost 1.3 million tons, and the export forecasts of all major soybean exporting countries have increased At present, the U.S Department of agriculture forecasts that U.S soybean exports will exceed 26.5 million tons, an increase of 680000 tons from the forecast a month ago Argentina's export forecast increased by 300000 tons, Brazil's by 200000 tons and Paraguay's by 100000 tons The increase in soybean exports is due to increased demand from the EU and China Due to the EU ban on meat and bone meal (MBM), its soybean import forecast has been raised by 910000 tons China's soybean imports increased by 300000 tons to 7.8 million tons In addition, China's soybean production forecast for 2000 has also been increased by 400000 tons The USDA's forecast for sunflower seed exports this month rose by 510000 tons, reflecting an increase in export forecasts for Russia (up 235000 tons) and Ukraine (up 270000 tons) In 2000 / 01, the world's oil crushing capacity also increased by almost 1.6 million tons, reaching 251.2 million tons Soybean squeezing is predicted to increase 2.1 million tons, but the decrease of rapeseed squeezing partially offsets the increase of soybean squeezing The extra demand for soybean meal in EU is the most significant reason for the increase of squeezing volume, which not only helps to improve the squeezing forecast of EU, but also helps to improve the squeezing forecast of the United States and South America Compared with last month's forecast, the global oil stock at the end of the period in 2000 / 01 decreased by nearly 1.3 million tons, reaching 27.1 million tons The decrease was entirely due to the decrease of soybean stock at the end of the period Soybean ending inventory decreased by more than 1.3 million tons to 23.4 million tons The increase in exports to the EU and China will help reduce soybean stocks in the three major soybean exporting countries The global trade volume of protein meal and vegetable oil was revised up in 2000 / 01 In terms of protein meal trade, the monthly increase in soybean meal exports accounted for almost all the growth of 610000 tons Another reason for the increase in soybean meal trade is the additional demand from the EU For vegetable oil, palm oil exports are forecast to rise by 250000 tons to a record 14.6 million tons.