USDA Forum: China and Argentina are uncertain factors of soybean market

Introduction: the U.S Department of Agriculture said today that China and Argentina were uncertain factors in the world soybean market in 2002 Argentina's production is still unknown, and how much the genetically modified regulations will affect China's soybean import is uncertain This is the outlook report made by Robert Riemann Schneider, grain and feed Department of USDA overseas agricultural service at the 2002 Agricultural Outlook Forum The report said the world's soybean supply is record and demand for soybean products is strong, but the debate on genetically modified products will continue and restrictions on meat and bone meal will increase demand for soybeans Riemann Schneider concluded that low prices stimulate consumption, there is no shortage of main soybean products, export competition is still fierce, and world soybean prices are expected to remain weak China is an uncertain factor in the soybean market because of the controversy over genetically modified regulations If the ambiguity of GM regulations can be clarified quickly and favorably, China's soybean imports will remain strong in 2001 / 02 China's soybean production will not increase significantly in the near future, which means that China will continue to rely on imports to meet domestic demand The report also said that after China's accession to the WTO, although China has increased the tariff rate quota of soybean oil, it will not immediately change from imported soybean to imported soybean products The key question, the report said, is whether China will open its soybean market fairly For Argentina, soybean production in 2001 / 02 may not be affected by the current financial crisis, because the decision on soybean cultivation has been made A devaluation of the currency would be good for soybeans because the cost of those imports (such as imported fertilizer) would be reduced The level of soybean production in Argentina depends on the comprehensive effect of various factors Brazil's soybean production will continue to grow in 2002 / 03, and Brazil will continue to increase investment in transportation and reduce the cost of soybean exports Good weather and weak Brazilian currency are favorable for the increase of Brazilian soybean production in 2001 / 02 The U.S soybean production in 2001 / 02 is estimated to be a record 78.7 million tons South American production in 2001 / 02 is also expected to reach a record level, close to 76 million tons, slightly lower than that of the United States According to the outlook report, soybean production accounted for 57% of the world's oilseed production in 2001 / 02, up from the previous year Despite the low price, soybean production in the United States and South America in 2002 / 03 is likely to reach a new high The report points out that soybean demand is in line with the pace of supply Soybean imports from soybean importing countries grew faster than soybean products, for example, China expanded its crushing capacity Despite the increase in supply, the end of 2001 / 02 is expected to be close to the previous year's level due to strong demand In 2002 / 03, the strong growth of world soybean demand is expected to keep pace with the supply The report also noted the need to pay close attention to the progress of GM issues in order to determine the impact on demand The most genetically modified products are expected to be identified in Asia and Europe On the other hand, the recent EU and Japan bans on meat and bone meal have added to the opportunities for soybean and soybean meal imports The EU is expected to replace 2.5 million tons of meat and bone meal imports a year, equivalent to 2.9 million tons of soybean meal The length of the ban will have an impact on future market demand for soybeans and meal, the report said Vegetable oil prices are also expected to pick up slightly in 2001 / 02 due to a decrease in world inventories Due to the decrease of oil seed production in 2001 / 02, the market supply of sunflower seed oil and rapeseed oil decreased The report points out that although the overall level of palm oil increased, the growth rate of production slowed down compared with the previous year, resulting in the decrease of inventory in 2001 / 02 market Soybean oil, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil are expected to increase in 2002 / 03.