USDA food outlook in June

Introduction: the author: Allen Baker, Edward Allen and William Chambers, the Bureau of Economic Research of the U.S Department of agriculture, reduced corn supply and inventory, and boosted food prices This month's main adjustment to the domestic supply and demand balance table is to reduce the output of corn in 2002 / 03 by 285 million bushels Because of too much rainfall in the central and western regions, the sowing area and yield per unit of maize decreased Corn exports also fell slightly to 2075 million bushels The decrease of corn production led to the tightening of feed supply and the increase of annual average farm price (SAFP) of all feeds In 2002 / 03, the global corn ending inventory was lowered by 11 million tons compared with last month, 20 million tons lower than last year, and it was also the lowest inventory since 1983 / 84 The decrease of American production results in the decrease of American stock, and the increase of Chinese corn export results in the decrease of foreign corn stock Corn prices in the United States rose, which is expected to help China's corn exports In 2002 / 03, the output of American feed (corn, sorghum, barley and oats) decreased by more than 7 million tons, reaching 267 million tons, but still increased by 2% compared with the previous year However, as the inventory is lower than that of the same period last year, after this month's production reduction, the 2002 / 03 annual feed supply decreased to 314.7 million tons, 2 million tons less than that of the previous year, which is also the lowest since 1998 / 99 The only adjustment this month was to reduce exports (all corn) by more than 600000 tons because of higher corn prices Feed and other consumption is expected to remain at 157 million tons, down 1 million tons from 2001 / 02 Food, seed and industrial use (FSI) is expected to be at the same level as last month, at 60.9 million tons The total feed consumption is expected to be 277.5 million tons, higher than 271.8 million tons in 2001 / 02 The end of the period stock of feed is expected to be 37.2 million tons, lower than the 45 million tons of last year, and the lowest since 1996 / 97 The proportion of inventory to consumption is expected to be 13.4%, which is almost 2 percentage points lower than the forecast of last month Unchanged supply and demand in 2001 / 02 the only adjustment this month for supply and demand in 2001 / 02 is to raise the oats price estimate by 3 cents to $1.58 per bushel The prices of corn, sorghum and barley in 2001 / 02 are still expected to be $1.85-1.95, $1.80-1.90 and $2.23, respectively In 2002 / 03, corn planting area and unit yield decreased In 2002 / 03, corn production in the United States is expected to be 9.65 billion bushels, a decrease of 285 million bushels compared with last month Corn acreage is expected to be 78 million acres, compared with 75.8 million acres in 2001 / 02 The adjustment in the month to month ratio is due to a 1 million acre reduction in corn sown and harvested areas from the previous month, and a 2.1 bushel reduction in unit yield from the previous month, all due to excessive rainfall in the Midwest As of June 9, 98% of American corn planting had been completed, slightly lower than the five-year average progress Most of the fields that have not yet been seeded are in Indiana and Ohio, with 92% and 89% of corn being seeded, respectively Although corn planting has accelerated in recent weeks, it still lags behind, especially in the eastern corn belt As of May 26, only 83% of corn planting had been completed, and the five-year average progress was 94% As of May 26, the emergence rate of corn that had been sown was 53%, compared with 78% in the same period last year This month's corn yield is expected to fall by 2.1 bushels per acre from the linear trend used last month, as a result of delays in seeding progress Corn yield per acre is 2.4 bushels lower than last year's level Total corn supply is expected to be 11.286 billion bushels, slightly lower than the previous year and the lowest in three years Opening inventory is expected to be at the same level as last month at 1.6 billion bushels, down from 1.9 billion bushels in 2001 / 02 Total consumption is expected to be a record 9.985 billion bushels, slightly lower than last month, but 2% higher than in 2001 / 02 In 2002 / 03, exports decreased 25 million bushels from last month to 2075 million bushels, an increase of 150 million bushels from 2001 / 02 Despite the export reduction, the export volume in 2002 / 03 was still the highest since 1995 / 96 There is no adjustment of domestic corn consumption this month Ending inventory is expected to be 1.301 billion bushels, down 260 million bushels from last month, the lowest since 1996 / 97 The inventory to volume ratio for 2002 / 03 is 13% and last month is expected to be 15.6% No correction was made to the supply-demand balance of sorghum barley and oats in 2002 / 03 Sorghum production is expected to be 533 million bushels, the same as last month, but nearly 4% higher than last year, which is also the highest value since 1999 / 2000 As of June 9, 74% of the planting had been completed nationwide, basically equal to the five-year average The barley output in 2002 / 03 is expected to be 278 million bushels, an increase of 28 million bushels over the previous year As of June 9, the proportion of barley with good rating was 64%, and only 4% of barley with poor rating was very productive Oat production is expected to be 155 million bushels, an increase of 38 million bushels over the previous year As of June 9, 59% had good ratings and 11% had poor ratings In 2002 / 03, the prices of all diets were increased The following is the prediction of the average farm price in 2002 / 03 The price of corn was increased by 15 cents at both ends, reaching $1.90 to $2.30 per bushel The price of sorghum was increased by 15 cents at both ends, reaching $1.75 to $2.15 per bushel Barley prices are increased by 10 cents at both ends, reaching $2.05 to $2.45 per bushel Oats prices are increased by 10 cents at both ends, reaching $1.00 to $1.40 per bushel International outlook: corn prices in the United States are strong, which is conducive to China's corn export and not conducive to the export of corn in the United States This month, the export forecast of China's corn in 2001 / 02 and 2002 / 03 was raised respectively The current year's export forecast is increased by 500000 tons to 6.5 million tons, and the next year's export forecast is increased by 2 million tons to 6 million tons This also means recognizing that China's corn export faces favorable environment Although the drought in 2000 / 01 and 2001 / 02 led to a significant reduction in China's corn stocks, China's corn stocks are still far higher than those in the United States Last month, when forecasting the world corn trade in 2002 / 03, the factors of the sharp decrease of corn exports from Argentina, Brazil and Hungary were included This month, Hungary's export expectations were further undermined by lower production forecasts In addition, the dry weather during the Romanian corn planting season has resulted in an expected reduction in Romanian production of 500000 tons to 6.5 million tons in 2002 / 03 This month, the final inventory of corn in Eastern Europe decreased from 4.2 million tons to 2 million tons in 2002 / 03 China's biggest market for corn exports is South Korea So far, China's corn export to South Korea and Japan is higher than expected, so the import expectation of the two countries at the end of 2001 / 02 is expected to increase The feed demand of the above countries is stronger than expected, and has not decreased as fast as expected Therefore, this month, the demand of feed and livestock breeding industry of the two countries was re evaluated, and the import demand of the two countries in 2002 / 03 also increased This month, the global corn trade volume in 2002 / 03 increased by 1.3 million tons to 73.2 million tons This month, the U.S corn export in 2002 / 03 was reduced by 500000 tons to 53 million tons, 2 million tons higher than that of China, reaching 6 million tons Higher global imports, lower US production expectations and higher US corn prices are the main factors for these adjustments But US corn production and exports are expected to grow significantly in 2002 / 03 US corn exports are expected to remain the highest since 1995 / 96 In addition, although China's corn export is higher than last month's forecast, China's corn export is expected to decline year by year because of strong domestic demand growth and reduced corn inventory, which limits the power of export China's corn stocks are expected to fall below 50 million tons in 2002 / 03, down from 102 million tons in 1999 / 2000 China has not disclosed inventory data, so the above estimate is only a rough one However, this shows that although China's corn inventory is significantly reduced, the absolute value is still large (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: