USDA feed outlook in February

Introduction: new page 1 U.S corn export forecast for 2002 / 03 is down 25 million bushels this month due to increased competition from other exporting countries The monthly production of ethanol in the United States reached a new high, so the consumption of corn for food, seed and industry was increased by 20 million bushels this month The change raised corn's end of term inventory forecast by 5 million bushels to 929 million bushels As competition intensifies, this month's corn exports to the United States from October 2002 to September 2003 are expected to be cut by another 1 million tons Argentina's corn production outlook improved, with the European Union and Ukraine reporting higher than expected corn production Although South Korea's corn import is expected to increase this month, leading to an increase in world corn trade, the outlook for U.S corn exports has weakened due to higher corn exports from Argentina and Ukraine This month, it is estimated that the global corn ending inventory will increase by nearly 2 million tons in 2002 / 03, but it is still 26 million tons lower than the expected beginning inventory The increase in ethanol production, but the decline in corn exports offset the only change in the balance of supply and demand this month, with corn exports down 25 million bushels and corn consumption, seeds and industrial use (FSI) up 20 million bushels The whole change of FSI amount comes from the increase of corn amount for ethanol production At present, it is estimated that the corn export of the United States will reach 1.825 billion bushels in 2002 / 03, and the FSI consumption will reach 2.265 billion bushels These changes increased the closing inventory to 929 million bushels, only 5 million tons higher than last month and the lowest level since 1996 / 97 In 2002 / 03, the total supply of feed is still expected to be 292.4 million tons, and the total consumption of feed is expected to be 265.9 million tons The end of the term stock of rations is expected to reach 26.6 million tons, compared with 45 million tons last year The following is an adjustment to the 2002 / 03 feed price forecast: Corn's price range was narrowed by 5 cents to $2.20-2.50 per bushel Sorghum's price range narrowed by 5 cents to $2.25-2.55 per bushel The low end of the barley price range was raised by 10 cents, between $2.65 and $2.75 per bushel According to the market year from September 2002 to August 2003, the feed and other consumption of four kinds of main diets plus feed wheat is expected to reach 155.7 million tons, lower than 162.4 million tons in 2001 / 02 The gcau for 2002 / 03 is expected to be 88 million units, down from 89.6 million units last year Feed consumption per gcau is expected to be 1.77 tons, the lowest level since 1995 / 96 In January 2003, the number of live cattle on hand was 96.1 million, down from 96.7 million last year, and the number of cattle and calves fed was 12.9 million, down 75% from last year In 2003, beef production increased slightly to 26 billion pounds, but it is still 45% lower than that in 2002 Poultry and egg production is expected to increase slightly in 2003, but pork production is expected to decline This month, chicken production is expected to decline slightly to 32.5 billion pounds in 2003, but it is still nearly 15% higher than last year Turkey and egg production are expected to reach 5.7 billion pounds and 72 billion dozen dozen, respectively, the same as last year This month, U.S pork production is expected to rise slightly to 19.5 billion pounds in 2003, down from 19.7 billion pounds in 2002 The average price of hay was lower than last year, but it was rising as reported last month, with hay stocks of 104 million tons as at 1 December 2002, 65 per cent lower than the level as at 1 December 2001 Moreover, the annual stock data of cattle were released in the last feed outlook report The number of cows and heifers born on January 1, 2003 was slightly lower than the previous year, and the number of heifers used for replacement increased by 15 The recalculated 2002 / 03 rcau is expected to be 72.2 million units, the same as last year Hay stocks per rcau are still expected to be 1.44 tons, down from 1.53 tons last year Despite last month's report of higher hay stocks, the average price of all hay was lower than the previous year The average price of all hay between May 2002 and January 2003 was $95.20 per ton, down from $97 per ton in the same period last year From May 2001 to January 2003, the average selling price of alfalfa was $101.62 per ton, lower than the level of $105.44 a year ago From May 2002 to January 2003, the average price of other hay was $74.87 per ton, which was $1.41 higher than that of the same period last year Other hay prices were reported to be significantly higher in mid January than in December, but alfalfa prices were lower than last month's levels For the fourth consecutive month, the U.S corn export forecast has been lowered by 1 million tons due to intensified competition This month, the U.S corn export forecast for 2002 / 03 has been lowered by another 1 million tons According to the market annual calculation from October 2002 to September 2003, the corn export of the United States is expected to be 47 million tons, almost equal to the export volume in 2001 / 02 Export sales and shipments of corn in the United States were stagnant early in the year According to the data of the Bureau of statistics and investigation, from October to December 2002, the corn export of the United States was only 6.7 million tons, down nearly 500000 tons compared with the same period of last year The export inspection volume in December 2002 and January 2003 was the same as that in the same period of last year According to the U.S export sales report, as of January 30, 2003, the number of unsold goods sold decreased by 2.7 million tons compared with the same period last year For the rest of 2002 / 03, the pace of U.S export sales is expected to pick up compared with last year, as China's export rate is expected to slow down Competition for us corn exports is expected to intensify this month Argentina's corn production outlook increased by 1 million tons to 14.5 million tons Argentina's corn harvest is expected to grow to the same level as last year Moreover, higher than normal rainfall in the northern corn production area provides good conditions for corn growth, offsetting the impact of high temperature and dry weather in southern Argentina in January Argentina's corn yield is expected to be close to the record of 5.92 tons per hectare Part of the increase in Argentine corn production is expected to be exported between October 2002 and September 2003, so the Argentine corn export forecast is raised to 10 million tons Argentina is expected to export large quantities of corn to the Mediterranean and Latin American markets Ukraine and Russia reported higher than expected corn production last autumn, raising corn production in the former Soviet Union by 500000 tons At the same time, Russia's corn import expectation is lowered, and Ukraine's corn export forecast is increased As Russia is the main destination for Ukrainian corn exports, these changes mean that Ukrainian corn exports to other countries (possibly to the Mediterranean market) will grow net EU corn production in 2001 / 02 and 2002 / 03 was reported to be higher than previously expected Although exports are expected to rise slightly, they are mainly from food aid, so they will not compete directly with US exports However, the inventory level at the beginning and end of 2002 / 03 has been increased This month, the global corn production in 2002 / 03 will be increased by 2 million tons to 593 million tons, and the corn consumption is expected to increase by no more than 619 million tons The increase of nearly 2 million tons at the end of the period is mainly due to the increase of EU initial inventory Although the global corn ending inventory is expected to increase this month, it is still significantly lower than the opening inventory level, mainly because the consumption is expected to exceed the output Due to favorable growth conditions, sorghum production in Argentina is expected to increase slightly This is expected to lead to higher export of Sorghum in Argentina and slightly higher import of Sorghum in Japan The world barley production and trade volume are expected to change little this month Russian oat production is reported to be lower than previously expected, but is not expected to have any impact on trade Vbk