USDA feed grain outlook in September

Introduction: the Bureau of Economic Research of the U.S Department of agriculture has compiled this month's outlook based on the unit yield data obtained from the survey of corn, sorghum and barley, which has lowered the output estimate The yield per unit of the three crops is less than 1 bushel lower than that of last month Despite tight supply and inventory of food, the end of 2001 / 02 is expected to reach 38.9 million tons, far higher than the record low of 14.4 million tons in 1995 / 96 Tight supply is expected to lead to stronger prices This month, the overseas production and consumption of coarse grain in 2001 / 02 was increased by 3 million tons, resulting in a slight decrease in the ending inventory The final inventory of overseas coarse grain is expected to be 118 million tons, the lowest level in 16 years, mainly due to the decrease of corn inventory in China The decrease of global corn production, mainly reflecting the decrease of production and the increase of consumption in the United States, is expected to reduce the world corn inventory to the lowest level since 1984 / 85 ★ the ending stock of forage is lower than that of last month In 2001, the U.S forage production is expected to reach 256 million tons, nearly 1 million tons less than that of last month, and 18.2 million tons less than that of 2000 Feed supply in 2001 / 02 is expected to reach 312 million tons, a decrease of nearly 1 percentage point compared with last month and 4 percentage points compared with 2000 / 01 The opening inventory is expected to be 3 percentage points lower than last month, but 9 percentage points higher than last year This month, it is estimated that the feed consumption in 2001 / 02 will be 272.8 million tons, slightly lower than that in last month, and the decrease in export will exceed the increase in domestic consumption The total consumption is expected to increase by 200000 tons compared with the previous year Even if the total consumption is lower than last month's forecast, the ending inventory is expected to be 38.9 million tons, 2.5 million tons lower than last month and 14.2 million tons lower than last year According to the market annual calculation from September to August, the total amount of feed and other uses of four kinds of feed and wheat in 2000 / 01 is expected to be 165 million tons, 1 million tons higher than last month, but 1 million tons lower than last year It is estimated that corn accounts for 89% of feed and other consumption in 2001 / 02, which is about the same as that in 2000 / 01 This month, it is estimated that the gcau index in 2001 / 02 will be 90.413 million units, an increase of 2 percentage points over the previous month, higher than 89.4 million units in 2000 / 01 In 2001 / 02, feed and other consumption per gcau unit was 183 tons, lower than 186 million tons in 2000 / 01 In the index composition, the gcau of beef and cow decreased, while that of pork and poultry was higher than that of last year ★ decrease in corn production: this month, it is estimated that the corn production in 2001 will be 9238 million bushels, 28 million bushels less than last month, and 730 million bushels less than last year The average yield of corn is expected to be 133.5 bushels per acre, compared with 133.9 bushels last month and 137.1 bushels in 2000 The September 1 Objective yield data of corn showed that in seven states that conducted the objective yield survey, namely, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and Wisconsin, the number of corn stalks reached a record In September, the number of ears per acre reached a record high However, from the measurement of Honda's corn ears, the length is lower than the 5-year average, which is the shortest length since 1995 This month's forecast for corn consumption in 2001 / 02 is the same as that of last month, which is nearly 1 percentage point higher than that in 2000 / 01 Exports were 25 million bushels lower than last month, but 35 million bushels higher than in 2000 / 01 Feed and other uses increased by 25 million bushels compared with the previous month due to the increase in gcau, but decreased by 50 million bushels compared with the previous year In addition, inventories are expected to decrease by 65 million bushels due to higher exports in 2000 / 01 Due to the decrease of supply, it is expected that the ending inventory will decrease and the price will rise Corn stocks are expected to be 1.361 billion bushels this month The estimated price for 2001 / 02 is $1.95 to $2.35 per bushel, up from $1.90 to $2.30 last month In 2000 / 01, farmers received an average annual price of $1.85 ★ the output of sorghum is expected to be 537 million bushels higher than that of last year's 2001, which is 7 million bushels lower than that of last month, because the expectation of per unit yield is lower This production is 14 percentage points higher than that of 470 million bushels in 2000 Unit production is expected to be 61.2 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushels from last month and 0.3 bushels from last year This month, six of the 11 major producing states are expected to see a decline in unit production, mainly in the Central Plains The total consumption of sorghum is expected to reach 510 million bushels this month, 10 million bushels less than last month, and 5 million bushels less than the expected consumption in 2000 / 01 Exports are expected to reach 240 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from last month and 5 million bushels from 2000 / 01 Ending inventory is expected to be higher than last month, 28 million bushels higher than the 2000 / 01 level of 20 million bushels This month, sorghum is expected to cost $1.88 a bushel in 2000 / 01, 3 cents higher than corn's expected price The estimated price of Sorghum in 2001 / 02 is $1.95 to $2.35 per bushel, higher than that of last month's $1.85 to $2.25, roughly the same as corn ★ barley production is lower than that of 2000 / 01 In 2001, barley production is expected to be 262 million bushels, 4 million bushels less than that of last month, and 56 million bushels less than that of 2000 Production is expected to be 57.9 bushels per acre, down from 58.8 bushels last month and 61.1 bushels last year Compared with August's forecast, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon and Washington's production forecast is lower, while South Dakota's production forecast is higher Closing inventory decreased by 4 million bushels compared with the previous month and 10 million bushels compared with the year 2000 / 01 In 2001 / 02, the total barley consumption was the same as that of last month, but the output decreased, resulting in the decrease of inventory In 2001 / 02, farmers were expected to receive an average price of $2.10 to $2.50 per bushel, up 5 cents on each end of the month The difference between beer barley and feed barley is expected to be greater than in the past few years ★ the global corn production is expected to decrease in 2001 / 02, with increased trade and lower inventory This month, the overseas corn production is expected to decrease by 1 million tons Poor growth conditions in Ontario have reduced Canada's corn production outlook by 1 million tons The summer drought in Ukraine and parts of neighboring Russia is expected to reduce corn production in the former Soviet Union by more than 1 million tons The above reduction was only partially offset by the increase in corn production in Eastern Europe in 2001 / 02 Hungary and Serbia had good growth conditions, raising production expectations, while parts of Romania had lower corn production expectations due to drought This month, the world corn trade is expected to exceed 73 million tons in 2001 / 02, an increase of nearly 2 million tons Imports are expected to rise, led by Canada, which is expected to almost double this month to 2.5 million tons Indonesia and Iran also increased their corn imports by 300000 tons each, based on the recent pace of procurement progress However, South Korea's corn imports are expected to drop by 500 thousand tonnes as the country expects to import more feed wheat China has been actively selling corn in the past month, delivering in the autumn and early next year, in an effort to cut corn stocks before joining the world trade organization These sales increased China's export forecast for 2001 / 02 from 1 million tons to 4 million tons, but the increase in China's corn exports was partially offset by a decrease in the export expectations of Canada, Romania and Ukraine Overseas corn consumption is expected to increase by about 2 million tons this month Corn consumption in Eastern Europe is expected to rise by 1 million tonnes this month as production improves Canada's corn and barley production decreased, leading to an increase in corn imports and consumption This increase exceeded the reduction in corn consumption in South Korea and the former Soviet Union Reduced global corn production and increased consumption are expected to reduce world corn stocks to 118.5 million tons, the lowest level since 1984 / 85, when China increased its inventory Global corn ending inventory increased by 37 million tons over last year, the largest since 1988 / 89 Most of the world's corn stocks are held by the United States or China For example, in 1998 / 99, China and the United States accounted for an estimated 87% of global corn stocks In 2001 / 02, the unit production of both countries was lower than the trend unit production, and it is expected that the inventory will be greatly reduced China's corn stocks are expected to be below 60 million tons, the lowest level since 1986 / 87 However, this level is still 75% higher than the U.S corn inventory ★ the output of barley and rye overseas is expected to increase this month Due to the tight supply and demand of corn in the world this month, other coarse grains do not have this situation It is expected that the global barley production will increase by nearly 3 million tons in 2001 / 02, and the production of Russia and Ukraine will increase by 1.5 million tons respectively Production forecasts for the European Union and Eastern Europe have also improved slightly, but production in Canada and Turkey has declined due to drought Barley trade in 2001 / 02 was almost the same as last month, with several changes offsetting each other Barley exports from the European Union and Canada are expected to fall, while Ukrainian and Russian exports are up The EU expects to use more barley as feed because of reduced wheat production, which limits the supply of barley for export This month, it is estimated that the global barley ending inventory in 2001 / 02 will increase by nearly 1.7 million tons, most of which comes from the former Soviet Union Although the ending inventory of barley in 2001 / 02 is higher than that of last month, it is still lower than that of last year, the lowest level since the mid-1990s This month, the world rye production is expected to increase by more than 1 million tons in 2001 / 02 due to favorable growth conditions in Russia and Germany Most of the increase in production is expected to lead to higher end of period inventories This month, it is expected that the global ending inventory of coarse grain in 2001 / 02 will be 157 million tons, nearly 3 million tons less than last month, 35 million tons less than last year, the lowest level since 1995 / 96 (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: