USDA expects soybean stocks to hit an 11 year high

Introduction: October 15, 2001, Paul mcoliver, world commodity analysis company, last week, the U.S Department of Agriculture released a key supply and demand report for the soybean market The most dramatic adjustment was a 50 cent reduction in the price of soybeans expected to be received by American farmers per bushel It's 50 cents a bushel, and it's an adjustment to the forecast just released last month! The USDA's adjustment of soybean price expectation is a response to the increasing imbalance of supply and demand in the world soybean market In South America, because the soybean price in the local market of South America is at a historical high in terms of local currency, the soybean planting area in South America will set a new record, which means that the share of the United States in the world market will be reduced The devaluation of the South American currency sent a signal to farmers to increase the area of soybean planted In contrast, the USDA expects soybean prices in 2001 / 02 to be the lowest in nearly 30 years As we expected, soybean prices fell as supply increased This is exactly what the USDA predicted Although this seems to be bad news for American farmers, we would like to remind them not to accept the loan subsidy (LDP) of soybeans and keep soybeans without any price protection, because it will make the situation worse Similarly, farmers should avoid storing soybeans in the hope that prices will rebound at the end of the year The wisest option is to store the corn in a farm warehouse, sell the soybeans at harvest time, and then accept the under loan subsidy (LDP) U.S soybean prices are expected to be the worst in 30 years, according to the U.S Department of agriculture USDA's latest expectation for soybeans 1999 / 002000 / 01, 2001 / 02 planting area 73.874.375.2 harvesting area 72.472.474.1 rejection rate 2% 3% 1% unit yield (bushels / acre) 36.638.139.2 yield 265427582907 soybean supply and demand table (unit: million bushels) 1999 / 002000 / 01, 2001 / 02 storage 348290248 yield 265427582907 import 443 total supply 300630523158 Press 15791641660 feed seeds and other uses 909191 seed consumption 777282 domestic consumption 166917321751 export 9701000980 total demand 271628042, 813 carryover stock 290248345 inventory percentage 10.70% 8.80% 12.30% farmers received price $4.63 $4.55 $4.30 the U.S export is expected to decrease by 20 million bushels in 2001 / 02, to 980 million bushels, mainly due to the increase of planting area and production expectation in Argentina and Brazil USDA currently expects Argentina's soybean production to reach a record 27 million tons in 2001 / 02 (up from last year's record of 26.5 million tons), while Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record 41.5 million tons, up from last year's historical record of 38.4 million tons U.S soybean production is expected to reach a record 2.907 billion bushels, with carry over inventories expected to reach 345 million bushels (a 11 year high) Could it be worse? Yes The farm bill actually encouraged farmers to plant more soybeans than corn At current prices, under normal weather conditions, American farmers are extremely likely to increase soybean acreage in 2002 In the same agricultural law, corn's relatively low loan ratio puts it at a disadvantage when compared with soybean's relatively high loan ratio Corn stocks will fall to 450 million bushels in 2001 / 02, but the government's signal is to tell farmers to plant more soybeans than corn This is what Congress should change, not the current farm bill The U.S government's intervention in agricultural production decisions now comes from government loan rates The price of cotton is the lowest in 15 years, and the loan rate will tell farmers to continue planting The price of soybeans is the lowest in 30 years, but the loan rate tells farmers to continue planting As a result, the share of the U.S export market continues to shrink, and we have seen little to change that The house's agriculture bill requires taxpayers to pay more for farmers, with $170 billion in 10 years It's not smart to set up a 10-year farm bill, regardless of cost Even in five years, there are already too many uncertainties in the agricultural support act So what should we do? Congress and American farmers need to learn to compete for export market share, rather than building more warehouses to store goods that are easy to grow elsewhere In recent years, the United States has lost its share of the export market because American growers and businessmen are willing to store their goods for later use Our competitors are willing to compete more aggressively They increase the acreage almost every year and market all their crops, regardless of the falling price (in US dollars) The policy of the United States is to store the surplus grain, which only leads to the reduction of market share The prices of commodities such as soybeans, corn, wheat and cotton are set by the world, not by Washington American farmers need to sell their products at or below world prices Otherwise, they will continue to lose their share of the export market The simplest fact is that South American farmers are willing to produce and sell these commodities, especially soybeans, at a price lower than that of the United States South American farmers receive almost no economic assistance from the government In contrast, a bill recently passed by the U.S House of Representatives reportedly violates the rules of the world trade organization, which are related to the extent to which the United States can provide support to its farmers (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: