US soybean prices will continue to fluctuate

Introduction: August is generally considered to be the most critical month to determine soybean yield in the United States USDA's final yield and production estimates often differ from August's expectations, based on final forecasts made in August and early September In the past 22 years, the final yield estimate was lower than the August forecast in 11 years, higher than the August estimate in 9 years, and remained unchanged in 2 years The final estimate is lower than the August estimate, with a maximum gap of 3.5 bushels / acre (1983), higher than the August estimate and a maximum gap of 3.8 bushels / acre (1994) The final estimate is lower than the August forecast, with one in every four years, five in every six years and six in every eight years The final production estimate is lower than the August estimate in 12 of the past 22 years and 6 of every 8 years Therefore, the recent historical trend is the final decline of per unit yield after the estimation of per unit yield in August, which may lead to the trend of trade weakening after the prediction of per unit yield in August this year, especially due to the unsatisfactory climate in late July and early August Regardless of soybean production, market demand for soybeans is expected to remain strong in 2001/02 The expectation is based on indications that China will continue to buy large quantities of soybeans, that exports of soymeal to the EU will continue to be supported by restrictions on the use of meat and bone meal as animal feed, and that domestic soybean meal demand in the United States will be supported by profitable poultry industry In addition, soybean oil demand has been optimistic for the first time in the past two years The huge supply of other vegetable oils has resulted in relatively small US soybean oil exports in the past two years, and the price of soybean oil has dropped to a 28 year low due to the huge domestic inventory The bottom of the price is February 2001, and the price of Illinois soybean oil is about 12.4 cents / pound The lowest quotation for daily basis is 11.8 cents The recent optimistic demand for soybean oil is due to the continued increase in global vegetable oil demand and the small increase in competitive vegetable oil production, especially sunflower seeds, rapeseed and palm oil In July 2001, the average price of soybean oil was 16.5 cents / pound, and the highest daily transaction price was about 18 cents / pound Market analysis consumption and demand tend to be the same The recent high level of soybean consumption is likely to be driven by strong demand and low prices due to population and economic growth I don't know what is the most important factor leading to demand growth If demand is indeed growing, consumption is likely to remain high even as prices rise On the other hand, if demand growth is due to relatively low prices, then if prices rise, consumption is expected to decline, even if there is sufficient supply In addition to us soybean production and global demand, the market is also affected by the outlook for South American soybean production in 2002 In its July report, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted a 3.2% increase in soybean acreage in Brazil, a 1% increase in Argentina and a 4% increase in Paraguay in 2002 The three countries are expected to increase by an average of 2.4% In the past five years, the area of soybean co cultivation in three countries has increased by 39% The largest increase was in Argentina, which has increased by 69% in the past five years In the near future, many institutions expect the soybean planting area in Brazil to increase this year The forecast range is increased by 9% - 10% The increase of soybean planting area in Brazil is expected to be due to the increase of soybean price to some extent, the decrease of Brazilian currency exchange rate and the extremely low domestic corn price In 2001, the average per unit yield of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay was much higher than the average A more normal yield per unit in 2002 will moderately prevent the increase of soybean planting area, but it is expected to be the highest record soybean yield for the fourth consecutive year Last week's improvement in the U.S soybean crop rating, with rainfall in many dry areas, reduced market concerns about crop damage Private companies still have a wide range of estimates of soybean production, but they all expect a decline in soybean production But US soybean prices are likely to remain volatile for the rest of the growing season The latest news on output concerns has yet to come out At present, the spot price of soybean is difficult to be higher than the loan rate The price level during harvest will be affected by the relative loan rate price level and soybean price structure (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: