U.S. soybean price outlook

Introduction: 1 Summary: in the first half of 2001 / 02, the soybean price in the United States was much lower than that in the same period last year, mainly due to the huge soybean supply in South America and the United States In March 2002, the soybean price in the United States was higher than the average value of the same period last year, because the market was worried about the soybean production in South America and the domestic crush and export volume reached a record April's price rise was curbed as record soybean production in South America slowed U.S soybean exports and sales to China almost stopped The US Department of agriculture's intention planting report in March showed that in 2002, US farmers reduced the soybean planting area by 1.14 million mu However, the uncertainty of CCC's loan rate for agricultural products in 2002 makes it difficult to determine the sowing area Soybean prices in the coming months will be affected by changes to current South American soybean production, the outlook for us soybean production and China's procurement Any delay in corn planting will lead the market to believe that the soybean planting area in the United States will exceed the intended area in March, but corn planting failed to start well The price of soybean will fluctuate greatly in the critical period of American soybean growth Concerns about production will be more normal from June to August Now it looks like soybean prices will stay low, possibly for several months Second, there is a downward trend of seasonal consumption: in the first and second quarters of 2001 / 02 market year, the soybean export volume of the United States is huge In the first half of 2001 / 02, the export volume was 18% higher than that in 2000 / 01, and the shipping volume reached a record 1 billion bushels However, from the last week of February to April 11, 2002, the annual cumulative shipping volume was only 3.5% higher than that of last year New sales showed slower sales in late March, but faster sales in early April As of April 11, 94 million bushels of soybeans had been sold but not shipped, compared with 78 million bushels in the same period last year Among them, the freight volume of undelivered ships to Mexico, Japan and Taiwan increased The decrease in sales was mainly due to the implementation of the GM policy in China on March 21, 2002 The number of U.S soybeans sold to China this year was 155 million bushels, 26% lower than the same period last year Even if China's GM problem can be solved, U.S soybean exports will now face fierce competition from South American supply The U.S Department of agriculture currently estimates South American soybean production at 2.81 billion bushels, 220 million bushels higher than in 2001 Brazil's output is expected to grow by up to 165 million bushels Brazil's soybean yield per unit area is slightly lower than the average in 2001, and the U.S Department of Agriculture estimates that the soybean harvest area will increase by 13.8% The estimated harvest area is higher than that of the private sector and may be revised USDA continues to forecast US soybean exports of 1.02 billion bushels in 2001 / 02 market year, 2% higher than last year's record production In order to meet USDA's target, the market needs to achieve an average of 8.9 million bushels per week in the last 20 weeks of the year The average weekly shipping volume for the same period last year was 8.9 million bushels After last winter's export frenzy (with Chinese buyers expecting problems with the new GM Policy), it's hard to meet USDA's estimate of 1.02 billion bushels U.S soybean exports will set a new record, but only account for 47.6% of global exports, down from 49% last year and 57% the year before South American soybean exports are expected to surpass those of the United States for the first time In the first half of 2001 / 02 market year, the domestic soybean pressing volume also reached a record high of 874.3 million bushels, 4.2% higher than last year's record The increase of squeezing volume is mainly due to the increase of domestic consumption and the increase of soybean oil and soybean meal export The export process of soybean meal is expected to slow down significantly as South American soybean meal begins to be listed In the first 6.5 months, soybean meal exports increased by 6.3% compared with the same period last year The U.S Department of agriculture now expects soybean meal exports to increase by only 1.2% or 80000 tons to 7.75 million tons this year Soybean meal trade is similar to soybean trade It is expected that the global soybean meal trade volume will increase by 2.78 million tons compared with last year, 80% of which is from South America USDA expects soybean meal consumption to be 2.5% higher this year than last year This is in line with the forecast for an increase in poultry and livestock numbers in the United States this year The total consumption of soybean meal (export plus domestic consumption) is expected to be 40.23 million tons Consumption was last forecast at 40.35 million tons, but now it looks like exports are below January estimates In the first half of this year, the average yield per bushel of soybean meal was 47.59 pounds, 1 / 3 pound lower than that of the same period last year If the inventory falls by 100000 tons and the import volume is 60000 tons, assuming the unit production is 47.89 lbs / bushel and the estimated consumption is 40.23 million tons, the domestic crushing volume in this year needs to reach 1.684 billion bushels This is the same as the January estimate, obviously the same as the USDA estimate, due to the same expected soybean meal consumption In the first half of the market year in the past 10 years, the domestic crushing volume accounted for 51.1% - 53% of the total annual crushing volume The average value was 51.9% Based on the historical model, the market's pressing volume in the first half of the year is 874.3 million bushels, which means that the total annual pressing volume is 1.65-1.781 billion bushels Based on the average consumption over the past 10 years, it is estimated that this year's crushing volume will total 1.685 billion bushels Therefore, it is reasonable to predict the press capacity of 1.684 billion bushels If the export volume is 1.02 billion bushels, the crushing volume is 1.685 billion bushels, the seed feed and the residual consumption are 175 million bushels, it means that the end of the year soybean inventory of the market will be 262 million bushels In the first half of 2001 / 02, the average yield of soybean oil was 11.1 lb / bushel, 0.1 LB lower than the average of the same period last year The average yield in the second half of the year tends to be higher than that in the first half Based on the current average yield, the annual average yield is expected to be 11.14 lbs If the squeezing volume is 1.684 billion bushels, it means that the total output of soybean oil in the whole year is 18.76 billion pounds The outlook for exports deteriorated as global soybean supply increased In April, the U.S Department of agriculture estimated that the global oil seed production in 2001 / 02 was 325.1 million tons, 12 million tons higher than last year USDA now expects total soybean oil consumption to be 191.25 billion pounds this year If the forecast is correct, it will mean that the inventory at the end of the year will remain at 2.59 billion pounds On the whole, the current situation of aged soybeans is that sufficient supply in the United States and the world leads to a seasonal slowdown in soybean consumption in the United States In addition, China's departure from the export market has strengthened the trend of weak demand 3 Prospects for new crops: in 2001, the soybean planting area in the United States was estimated to be 74.105 million acres, 161000 acres lower than that in 2000 It is 2.552 million acres lower than the intended area in March 2001 and 133000 acres lower than the estimated planting area in June 2001 In 2001, soybean planting area increased in some parts of the central and western regions, but decreased significantly in the south, especially in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi The USDA's intention to plant report in March 2002 showed that American soybean producers planned to plant 72.966 million acres in 2002 The sown area is 1139000 Mu lower than that of last year, the lowest since 1998 The area of decline in planting area is in the central and western regions, with an area of 1.1 million acres less than last year Illinois, Indiana and Iowa are expected to have 200000 acres less acreage than last year South Dakota's proposed area is 350000 acres lower than last year's, but North Dakota's proposed area is 450000 acres higher than last year's Most of the market expects us soybean acreage to decline It is generally believed that the loan rate of CCC to soybean in 2002 may be lower than that in 2001 Due to the delayed release of the new agricultural act and the apparent unwillingness of the Ministry of agriculture to modify the loan rate, it is not clear that the loan rate of soybean crops in 2002 will be adjusted Therefore, there is still uncertainty about the sown area of soybean in 2002 in the United States, because of the uncertainty of agricultural programs, the planting situation in spring, and the total sown area of all agricultural products in 2002 In 2001, the sown area of agricultural products in other regions decreased significantly The report of intention area in March showed that the total sown area in 2002 would not increase, and there could be more areas for planting soybean without transferring from other agricultural products From 1991 to 1999, the actual planting area of soybean for nine consecutive years exceeded the intended area in March There is a tendency to estimate an increase in soybean acreage in 2002 The estimated planting area is close to 73.5 million acres, which means 72.4 million acres will be harvested if production conditions are suitable in 2002 According to the past history, the difference between sown area and harvested area is 811000 acres (1999) to 2778000 acres (1993) Except for 1993, the average difference between sown area and harvested area was 1.13 million mu from 1991 to 2001 From 1996 to 2001, the average yield of soybean in the United States was 36.6 bushels / acre (1996), and 39.6 bushels / acre (2001) The gap of 3 bushels is relatively low in recent years From 1990 to 1995, the average yield change gap was 8.8 bushels, and from 1984 to 1989, the average yield change gap was 7.1 bushels In recent years, the annual average yield has been relatively stable and kept at a high level In 1994, the highest yield was 41.4 bushels / acre In the 1980s and early 1990s, the trend of soybean per unit area yield rising obviously has stopped The average unit yield has been relatively stable since 1992 In 2002, the trend was close to 40 bushels / acre, which means that the output could not reach 2.9 billion bushels, or the same as that in 2001 It is estimated that the total soybean supply of the United States in 2002 / 03 will reach a record of 3.161 billion bushels, 20 million bushels higher than the supply at the beginning of this market year The consumption of domestic soybean in 2002 / 03 market will be supported by the increased consumption of soybean meal The export prospects of soybean meal are influenced by many factors, including soybean production prospects in South America in 2003 And there's no reason to expect a drop in soybean acreage in South America In 2002 / 03, the consumption of domestic soybean meal increased by 2.5% and the export downturn would mean that the crushing volume was 1.72 billion bushels The export of us soybeans in the next year is partly due to China's import policy and the outlook for South American soybeans in 2003 It is optimistic that China will solve the problem of genetically modified soybeans in the autumn of 2002 and allow the shipping of soybeans in the United States to return to normal If this happens, U.S exports will reach the highest level this year, and even soybean production in South America is likely to increase slightly in 2003 Exports are expected to be 1025 million bushels, with inventories likely to fall to 240 million bushels by September 2003 4 Price outlook: in the first seven months of 2001 / 02, the average spot price of soybean in central Illinois was 4.31 USD / bushel, about 0.3 USD / bushel lower than the same period last year Soybean prices fell due to lower soybean meal prices From October 2001 to March 2002, the average price of 48% protein soybean meal in Illinois was 159.55 US dollars / ton, nearly 16 US dollars / ton lower than the same period last year The average price of soybean oil in the same period was 14.74 cents / pound, compared with 13.13 cents / pound in the same period last year The lowest soybean price in central Illinois was $3.985/bushel, and the highest was $4.635/bushel on March 28, 2002 The price in April was affected by long and short factors, including insufficient sales in China, different final estimates of production in South America, and uncertain prospects for sowing area US soybean prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the coming months due to uncertain production prospects in the US and unclear import policies in China Traditionally, the harvest season of the spot market