U.S. soybean exports will remain low in the next three years

Introduction: Chicago news: after the USDA released its report on supply and demand of agricultural products on Friday, the USDA concluded in a report on Monday that the decline in US soybean production in 2002 / 03 will lead to a low level of US soybean exports in the next three years Following three years of high soybean production, the U.S Department of agriculture expects to reduce soybean production by 1.1 million tons to 77.6 million tons in 2002 / 03 Despite the decline in production, the total domestic crushing volume in 2002 / 03 will increase by 1 percentage point compared with the current year, mainly due to the continued growth of feed demand in the United States Soybean exports are expected to decline in 2002 / 03, down from 4% in the current year, to 26.5 million tons The main reasons for the decrease are the decline of American production and the strengthening of competition between Brazil and Argentina USDA expects that in the early stage of the 2002 / 03 market year, the soybean supply in South America will be sufficient, so that the growth momentum of soybean and soybean meal exports from Argentina and Brazil will continue into the new market year, so that the U.S soybean and soybean meal exports in the first quarter of 2002 / 03 are expected to decline However, the decline of comprehensive output and the increase of domestic soybean demand can compensate for the decrease of export to some extent Therefore, the end of 2002 / 03, soybean inventory is expected to slightly drop to 7 million tons The preliminary forecast for the annual average soybean price in 2002 / 03 is $4.45 per bushel, 20 cents higher than the average price in 2001 / 03.