US economist soybean weekly: soybean prices continue to fall back

On January 2, 2002, soybean futures prices hit a new low, rebounded nearly $0.40 to January 17, and then fell another $0.25 on January 25 On October 22, the average spot price of soybeans fell to a low of $3.985 in the harvest season, climbed to $4.40 on January 16, and fell to $4.20 on January 25 The reason for the highest price in the first half of January was the record rate of consumption, the worrying drought in parts of South America, and a decline in US soybean production forecasts for 2001 In 2001, the rapid development of soybean consumption in the United States continued in 2002 According to the weekly export inspection report of the U.S Department of agriculture, from September 1, 2001 to January 24, 2002, the total volume of soybean shipping in the United States reached nearly 607 million bushels, an increase of 17% over the 21 weeks in the same period last year The number of unsold sales on January 17 was reported at 276.4 million bushels, up nearly 15% from the same day last year This year, the USDA plans to increase U.S soybean exports by only 1.2% The United States Bureau of Statistics reported that soybean squeezing reached nearly 153 million bushels in December 2001, an increase of 10.7 million bushels compared with that in December 2000, basically the same as that in December 1997 In the first four months of 2001 / 02, the total amount of squeezing was 580.6 million bushels, 3.1% higher than that of the previous year This rate is slightly higher than the USDA's annual plan by 2.1% Higher squeezing in December resulted in higher end of month stocks of soybean meal and oil Soybean oil stocks reached 2.873 billion pounds, nearly 23% higher than the previous record in December, almost the same as the record level at the end of September 2001 While the consumption rate remains high, the market is worried about the possible slowdown of export progress U.S exports have generally slowed since April and may, when soybeans in South America began to appear on the market This year, exports to China are even more worrisome as new GM regulations related to soybeans take effect at the end of March On the surface, China's imports have accelerated the purchase of American soybeans so as to transport them to Chinese ports before the new regulations come into force It is reported that the new regulations will lead to a higher than seasonal decline in U.S soybean exports The market will look at export sales, especially to China, to see if the slowdown is in line with expectations In addition to concerns about a slowdown in exports to China, the drought in some South America has recently improved Some yield loss seems inevitable, but recent rainfall has reduced the loss South American production will still be a good harvest year It is not clear how China's GM regulations will affect Brazilian soybeans Officials say Brazil's soybeans have no genetically modified ingredients, but it is privately known that parts of Brazil are also producing genetically modified soybeans At present, in the next few weeks, soybean futures have the risk of a new contract low In early trading on January 28, the March 2002 soybean price was within $0.10 of the contract low of $4.1575 Spot prices are expected to remain above the low point of the harvest season, but not very high Assuming the South American harvest reaches the historical record predicted by the U.S Department of agriculture, the next round of soybean price hike is likely to occur in the alternate seasons of spring and summer At that time, the price increase may be driven by the US soybean production in 2002 The early private forecast showed that the soybean planting area was stable in 2002 The U.S Department of agriculture will release its planting intention report on March 28 As the planting area has not increased, the average yield per unit area is slightly important Obviously, it's too early to predict the weather of sowing season, but in the next few weeks, weather forecast will increasingly become a factor of common concern to the market If the U.S soybean harvest in 2002, the price will be under continuous pressure, and the spot price may fall to a new low in July August For soybean farmers who still hold a portion of the profits from market loans, the risk is limited to the cost of storage There are additional risks for soybean farmers who have already cashed in the profits of market loans but still hold these soybeans At present, we need to decide which part of soybeans can continue to be held, waiting for the possible weather rising market later in the year (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: