US corn and soybean prices have room to rise

Introduction: corn and soybean prices in the United States continue to rise, which is a typical seasonal rebound after a huge harvest Recent contracts December 2001 corn contracts rose just 5 cents from November 2-16 In the same period, the corn contract in March 2002 only increased by 0. 035 US dollars But spot corn prices in central Illinois rebounded 12 cents a bushel in two weeks, with the recent basis up 7 cents Recently, the price of January 2002 soybean futures rose by 0.165 USD / bushel from November 6-16 Spot soybean prices rose $0.235 a bushel in central Illinois over the same period, while the soybean base rose 7 cents over the same period The US corn base is expected to strengthen again in March The average spot price of corn in central Illinois on November 16 was 26 cents lower than the March 2002 futures price Based on the historical experience of the past three years, by March 2002, the corn base should be increased to - 15 cents to - 10 cents Then the market insured corn storage costs for March 2002 at 11-16 cents At present, the average spot price of soybeans in central Illinois is about 20 cents lower than the March 200 futures Based on the historical experience of the past three years, the soybean base should rise to - 15 cents to - 10 cents by March 2002 So the market price for the storage cost of soybeans in March 2002 is only 5-10 cents The interest cost of the CCC loan from USDA commodity credit company will be about 4 cents / bushel for corn and 9 cents / bushel for soybeans by March next year The current price structure is not attractive for soybean storage without CCC loans Naturally, the biggest question is whether there is any reason to predict that futures prices will also rise in the next three to four months Basically, most of these problems will be gradually informed by the weekly, monthly and quarterly reports of the U.S Department of agriculture and other agencies; the final data of corn and soybean production in the United States will be released on January 11, 2002; in addition, the growth of soybean and corn crops in South America will also be included Other factors obviously have the same effect on prices The acceleration of soybean export and sales in the United States and the acceleration of export shipping, as well as the current extremely low price level, means that the price of soybean futures in the United States has room to rise U.S soybean exports totaled about 524 million bushels as of November 8, which means only 53.5% of U.S Department of agriculture's target exports were met Total export sales increased by 19% over the same period last year As of November 15 (the 11th week of the market year), the US soybean testing prime minister was 269 million bushels, only 4% lower than the same period last year The slow export sales and shipping of corn in the United States is a problem for the corn market As of November 8, the export sales volume of corn in the United States decreased by 5% compared with the same period last year, and the number of corn export tests in the United States decreased by about 13% compared with the same period last year However, the market did not worry too much about the slow export sales process It is believed that the decline of corn production in the southern hemisphere will lead to the huge corn export volume of the United States in the spring and summer of 2002 Technically, in March 2002, the U.S corn futures contract has the potential to rise to fill the gap left by the October production report of the U.S Department of agriculture The top of the gap is about $2.25/bushel March soybean futures have made up for the gap created by the USDA's October production report The top of the gap is about $4.60 per bushel Finally, the trading range of corn and soybean prices means that US soybean prices in particular may rise more than the basis US soybean spot harvest season low $3.985/bushel in central Illinois If the price is also the annual market price low, it is expected that the spot price of soybean may be close to $5 / bushel before the end of the market year, which is likely to occur in the spring or summer of 2002 These uptrends require a worrying outlook on production over the same period In the past three years, the spot price of soybeans in central Illinois has reached a high of $5.20-5.795/bushel Spot corn prices in central Illinois have been at a low of 1.795 bushels per acre for the year to date This low is still far higher than the annual market price low (1.45-1.665 US dollars / bushel) established in the past four years, so we are more worried about whether the market has established the annual market price bottom The annual high price of Illinois central market in the past 3 years is $2.105--2.225 / bushel, which means that the spot price of corn in the United States still has the potential to rise this year At present, market fundamentals, technical factors and historical price patterns all indicate that the annual corn and soybean prices in the United States have the potential to rise further Now, soybean prices have more potential to rise because of the huge export sales volume and the current low price (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: