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　　On December 15, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued a notice on the 2022 Tariff Adjustment Plan , imposing a provisional import tariff rate lower than the most-favored nation tariff rate on 954 commodities (excluding tariff quota commodities); including chlorination of new anti-cancer drugs Some medical products such as radium injections, baby clothing, dishwashers, ski equipment and other consumer products.
.
.
will also implement tax reductions on the 9 effective members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), and Japan will implement tariff reductions for the first time.
Let the arrangements
.
wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Starting from July 1, 2022, the provisional tariff rates for imports of products covered by seven information technology agreements will be cancelled
.
Continue to implement tariff quota management on eight categories of commodities, including wheat, corn, rice and rice, sugar, wool, wool tops, cotton, and chemical fertilizers, with the tax rate unchanged
.
Among them, the quota tax rate for urea, compound fertilizer, and ammonium hydrogen phosphate fertilizer will continue to implement the temporary import tax rate, and the tax rate will remain unchanged
.
Continue to implement sliding tariffs on a certain amount of additional imported cotton, and the tax rate will remain unchanged
.
wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The temporary import tariff rate for pork, etc.
will be cancelled, and the most-favored-nation tariff rate will be restored.
The most-favored-nation tariff rate will be restored from the current 8% to 12%
.
wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In 2020, due to domestic pork shortages, the tariff on imported pork will be adjusted from 12% to 8%
.
Since then, pork imports have been at a high level, setting a historical record, which lasted until the first half of this year
.
In recent months, due to the drop in pig prices, pork imports have also dropped significantly
.
Increasing tariff rates will further reduce pork imports
.
wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Zhu Zengyong , a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that timely adjustment of tax rates is conducive to rational use of the international market to ensure domestic pork supply and stabilize pig prices
.
wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Joel Haggard , senior vice president of the American Meat Export Federation Asia Pacific, said: “Any increase in the tax rate will create greater challenges for pork exporters
.
”wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Professor Cui Fan of the University of International Business and Economics said : The pork tax rate last year and this year are included in the provisional tax rate, which is lower than the most-favored-nation tax rate, which is the tax rate China promised to the WTO.
The most-favored-nation tax rate is 12%, and the provisional tax rate is 8%, especially at the beginning of last year, there was a shortage of domestic pork, so the provisional tax rate was reduced to import more pork to meet the needs of the people
.
But then the domestic supply gradually increased.
There was more pork in stock, or even too much supply.
In some places, the price of pork was even lower than the cost.
In this case, we restored the tax rate of pork to the most-favored nation tax rate, from 8.
% And then restore to 12%, which has certain benefits for balancing supply and demand
.
wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　1.
Overview of pork imports in 2021wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　From January to October 2021, China's pork imports totaled 3.
34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 270,000 tons, or 7.
48%
.
For the whole year of 2020, the cumulative total is 4.
39 million tons, accounting for about 55% of the total amount of imported meat, which is the most imported year in recent years
.
In 2021, the domestic live pig production capacity will recover rapidly, the supply exceeds demand, and the price of pigs will drop significantly.
The price difference between imported pork prices and domestic pork prices will shrink, and even be lower than imported pork prices for some periods of time.
Imported pork does not have a prominent advantage, and large traders have a large inventory of goods.
, The loss was heavy, and the domestic demand for pork gradually reduced the demand for imported pork
.
It is understood that the volume of pork imports normally takes 35-55 days from ship to port and 3-5 working days for customs clearance after calling at the port.
However, due to severe overseas epidemics, the customs has strict epidemic prevention requirements this year and began to submit paper presentations.
, The speed of customs clearance has slowed down.
Therefore, the volume of pork imports from November to December corresponds to the volume of orders placed from September to October.
September was at the peak of domestic pig prices.
Large traders were not enthusiastic about purchasing.
Pig prices continued to rise after the National Day.
, Driving some big traders to bargain-hunting sentiment, September-October monthly imports were 210,000 tons and 200,000 tons, so pork imports in 2021 are expected to be about 3.
8 million tons
.
wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　2.
Overview of domestic pork productionwgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The national pork production in 2020 was 41.
13 million tons, a drop of 23.
87% from 2018, supporting pig prices to maintain a 15-month high area
.
In 2019, the annual output of pre- pestilence pork remained at about 54 million tons, and the monthly average fluctuates slightly, basically maintaining about 4.
5 million tons/month, with slight differences in different months
.
According to data released by the five ministries and commissions, the domestic output in China in the first three quarters of 2021 was 39.
17 million tons .
In October this year, due to the previous pig price falling below the cost line, the farmers were in a strong mood for slaughter, coupled with the influence of external weather and other factors.
, The market supply has been actively controlled.
Therefore, the pork production in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to be 14.
33 million tons, and the annual pork production in 2021 is expected to be 53.
5 million tons
.
Based on the estimated number of reproductive sows in 2022, the number of live pigs in 2022 is derived from the stock of reproductive sows after March 2021.
Based on the misjudgment of the winter epidemic in the early stage of the market and the over-exaggeration of the severity It can be seen that the enthusiasm for replenishment of sows in the early stage is relatively high.
According to the monitoring data of Mysteel agricultural products samples, the number of reproductive sows has declined in July 2021 from the previous month.
The market has begun to reduce the sow production rhythm, but the current number of reproductive sows is still slightly higher.
The domestic pig production capacity is still at a relatively surplus stage in 2022.
It is estimated that China's pork production will be around 55.
64 million tons in 2022, which is basically the same as the level before the epidemic
.
wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　3.
Prospects for pork imports in 2022wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　With regard to pork imports in 2022, with the shift of previous pork consumption habits, although domestic pig stocks have returned to the pre-crash level, the consumption situation may not be as expected.
Next year, the supply of pigs may continue to exceed demand for a long time, and the degree of dependence on imported pork Limited, or return to the non-pre-plague level, it is expected that pork imports in 2022 may return to the non-pre- plague level, and pork imports may be about 2 million tons
.
Finally, China’s pork export volume is relatively small, and it is basically self-produced and sold.
Since 2019, the annual export volume has remained between 20,000-30,000 tons, and the export volume before the disease has remained at 40-50,000 tons.
For domestic pigs The impact on the supply and demand side is very small, almost negligible
.
wgF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry