Up to 85.2%! Experts said that the price of pigs in autumn and winter will also rise, "pig cycle."

From March to July, pig prices rose all the way, an increase of 85.
2%, some experts believe that due to the lack of summer consumption, to a certain extent, suppressed the rise in pork prices, it is expected that after the autumn and winter pork consumption picks up, pig prices will rise, but the increase will gradually stabilize
.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

A number of pig enterprises sales revenue and sales growth 8TR China feed industry information network - based on feed, service animal husbandry

"A single middle row is 36.
8 yuan a pound, and last month it was 33.
8 yuan
.
" On August 27, in a supermarket near Wuhan's Forehead Bay, the reporter saw that some citizens were talking about the price
while selecting pork steaks.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

"You can look at the ribs, 28.
8 yuan a pound, and the cheaper spine, 13.
9 yuan
a pound.
" The sales staff shouted, leading customers to the lower price of the ribs selling area, "In fact, there has been no recent price increase, sometimes there will be a slight increase, but there are more activities, such as buying three middle row at a time, each kilogram can drop 3 yuan, always want to eat, buy something home frozen, eat slowly, cost-effective
.
" "8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

On August 11, the Wuhan Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in July 2022, consumer prices in Wuhan rose by 2.
8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.
1 percentage points
over the previous month.
Among them, the price of pork rose by 16.
1%.

8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

In addition, Makihara shares, Wen's, Zhengbang, Aonong, Dabeinong, Tang Renshen and many other listed pig companies, recently released July pig sales data, on the whole, the main listed pig enterprises pig output rose and fell by half
month- 8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Taking Makihara shares as an example, in July 2022, the company sold 4.
594 million pigs (including 569,000 piglets), up 52.
57%
year-on-year.
In terms of sales prices, the company's overall commodity pig price in July showed a volatile trend, with the average sales price of commercial pigs of 21.
33 yuan / kg, up 29.
04%
from June 2022.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

According to rough statistics, the sales revenue and sales volume of many pig enterprises have achieved more than 40% and more than 20% growth respectively, and only the sales revenue and sales volume of Dabeinong have negative growth
.
The sales revenue of Makihara shares, Tang Renshen and Dongrui shares doubled year-on-year, and Jinxinong increased by about 70%
year-on-year.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

In the third quarter, pig prices may rise 8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving livestock

As a market phenomenon that is closely related to people's lives, people have a clear perception of the pig cycle, which is mainly manifested as the cyclical fluctuation
of pig prices.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, since 2000, there have been five rounds of pig cycle price fluctuations with strong regularity, and its law is a 4-year round
.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Dr.
Wang Zuli, chief expert of pig industry monitoring and early warning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, mentioned in a report that the production capacity cycle determines the price cycle
.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, there is a strong negative correlation
between the current breeding sow stock and the pig price after 10 months of lag.
He judged that it is now in the rising stage
of a new round of pig price cycle.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Obviously, the pig cycle is difficult to avoid, and after a cycle of "pig prices falling - a large number of phased sows - pig supply decreasing - pig prices rising - sow stocks rising - pig supply increasing - pig prices falling", the "heart" of pig enterprises has also been exercised more and more strongly
.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Industry insiders analyzed that this time, the reason why the pig cycle will make the pig price rise in the short term at the beginning of the new cycle is because the pig enterprises have lost money, resulting in a reduction in the supply of pigs, and from April to now, the pig price has risen by 92%.

From the increase in pig prices in July, it can be inferred that there may be a possibility
of further increases in pig prices in the third quarter.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Peak shaving and valley filling ironing "pig cycle" of the volatility 8TR China feed industry information network - based on feed, service livestock

According to the official WeChat message of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the coming period, it will usher in a number of important festivals
such as Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, New Year's Day, and Spring Festival.
In order to ensure the supply of pork market during the holidays, the National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to release government pork reserves in batches since September, and guide local linkage to release reserves
.
At the same time, we pay close attention to market dynamics and maintain normal market order
.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Monitoring data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to July this year, the price trend of pork has shown a V-shaped growth until the end of March this year, and the price of live pigs (outer three yuan) has opened an upward range, from 12.
2 yuan / kg in late March to 22.
6 yuan / kg in mid-July, an increase of 85.
2%.

This also means that a new round of "pig cycle" has begun
.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

The price of pork is connected to the citizens' vegetable baskets at one end and to the peasants' money bags, which is a livelihood problem
that must be seriously dealt with.
How to better carry out scientific and reasonable supply and demand allocation to alleviate the negative impact of the "pig cycle" on farmers? 8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serve livestock

Pig raising must also "respect the laws of the market economy.
"
The premise of "respecting the law" is "recognizing the law"; To recognize the economic laws of the pig industry is to recognize the "pig cycle", that is, the "ebb and flow" of pork prices
.
Market price fluctuations are commonplace, and the cyclical fluctuations of pig prices can be understood
.
However, if the rise is also too much, the fall is also too much, and this trend has repeatedly recurred, it is a bit unreasonable to explain it with normal cyclical fluctuations, and this kind of ups and downs is not conducive to the healthy development
of the industry.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

For pig farmers, they cannot kill pigs to hedge when meat prices fall, and start to make up fences when meat prices rise
.
The shrewd approach should be to "supplement the column" in large quantities when the meat price is low, and to quickly "reduce the stock"
when the meat price rises sharply.
In this way, it can not only make farmers "profitable and profitable", but also let consumers no longer complain about "soaring meat prices", and "production and marketing are both prosperous", which is what everyone is happy to see
.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

In the face of this "roller coaster" market, government regulation is indispensable, but how to effectively regulate and control is worth pondering
.
Government regulation and control should be grasped at both ends, on the one hand, when the meat price is high, release reserve meat to stabilize meat prices, on the other hand, to stabilize pig production
.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Set a certain pig inventory scale, especially the number of breeding sows, below this scale to give producer subsidies, higher than this scale to reduce or cancel subsidies; Establish a platform for forecasting and releasing pork supply and demand information, establish smooth information circulation channels, and timely guide the adjustment of production; Vigorously support the development of large-scale aquaculture enterprises, and further enhance the level of scale and standardization; Accelerate the construction of a pig reserve system and enhance the ability to stabilize the imbalance between supply and demand; Increase investment in scientific research, especially in the fields of production technology and epidemic prevention, and reduce the risk
of breeding.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

In the future, the "pig cycle" may still be difficult to eliminate, but the volatility
of the "pig cycle" can be ironed by peak shaving and valley filling.
8TR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry