Unexpected! "Pig strong" again, short-term price increases show signs of expansion

Also at the beginning of the year, a stroll around the vegetable market found that the retail price of pork is rising.
statistics show that pork prices have been rising for a month, pig prices from the end of November 2020 the average price of 29 yuan / kg to today's 35 yuan / kg, up 6 yuan / kg, a bit unexpected.
, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently released information that by the end of November 2020, the country's pig storage column and can breed sow storage column has returned to the annual level of more than 90%.
is the disclosure that pig farming has returned to the annual level of 90 percent, on the other hand is the rising price of pigs and meat prices, what is going on? A number of aquaculture experts said that at this stage the pig market is still a seller's market, whether restored to 80% or 90%, after all, is not fully recovered.
At the same time, under the development of the epidemic, imported frozen meat is facing consumption problems, consumers turn to buy relatively assured fresh meat, so that the domestic pork supply gap has widened, as an important reason to promote the recent rise in pig prices.
although short-term prices are still likely to rise further, in the long run, experts generally believe pork prices are still expected to fall further.
by the end of the first quarter of 2021, the pig market will face an important observation window.
Without major outbreaks and major policy changes, capacity release or acceleration will begin in the second half of 2021, pig prices may show an overall downward trend, and the national pig price is expected to be 21.5-22.5 yuan/kg by September 2021.
Imported frozen meat is facing consumption problems, pig prices have further expanded signs on December 31, 2020, China's pig network pig price system data monitoring shows that the national average price of pigs is 35.67 yuan / kg, up 0.19 yuan / kg from the previous day.
this is the third time in 2020 that pig prices are nearing highs.
according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data, in February 2020, pig prices reached the highest point, after breaking the 38 yuan / kg level line fell back; In July 2020, the price of pigs will again approach 38 yuan/kg.
December 2020, pig prices are again approaching 38 yuan/kg.
2020, pig prices continue to rise, pig supply constraints and capacity gaps have become the focus of industry attention.
Originally the lack of domestic pigs, China's large number of imports of foreign frozen meat to make up for domestic demand, but since November 2020, more than a dozen provinces and cities across the country concentrated on the outbreak of imported frozen meat new crown virus test positive events, so that the public on the safety of imported frozen meat concerns and concerns, frozen meat consumption greatly reduced, to buy relatively assured fresh meat, so that the domestic pork supply gap further widened, become an important reason to promote price increases.
November 2020, the "cold chain food production and operation process of the new coronavirus prevention and control disinfection technical guide" issued, and then all over the frozen products testing efforts to strengthen, the number of positive test results significantly increased.
On December 1, 2020, the General Administration of Market Supervision held a teleconsignment to strengthen the retrospective management of imported cold-chained food, pointing out that "strict import of cold-chain food from the port to the domestic production, circulation, sales of the whole process of prevention and control, no inspection and quarantine certificate, no nucleic acid testing report, no disinfection certificate, no traceability information, may not be listed for sale."
" continuous explosion of imported frozen meat new crown nucleic acid test positive also affected the acceptance of frozen consumption.
has been easing the gap between domestic supply and demand for a long time now.
statistics show that, as of November 2020, the domestic import volume of pork is more than 4 million tons, imported countries mainly from the European Union, South America, the United States and other places.
expected to reach Hong Kong in December at around 100,000 tonnes, with annual pork imports at 4.2 to 4.3 million tonnes.
, in the New Year's Day and other traditional holidays when the peak demand season, imports of frozen meat face difficulties, the market gap significantly enlarged in the short term.
The first quarter of 2021 became a pig price window period, the second half of the year there is still greater uncertainty with the "second brother" of the value of day by day higher, pig breeding industry listed enterprises earn a pot full, busy expanding production capacity, support large "money bags."
December 30, 2020, Tiankang Bio disclosed plans for a non-public share issue, proposing to raise no more than 2.1 billion yuan for piglet breeding, pig fattening and replenishment.
Wei Hongyang, deputy director of the Animal husbandry and veterinary bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said recently: "It is expected that pig production capacity will fully return to normal in the first half of 2021, according to the six-month fertilization cycle, the second half of 2021, pig production is likely to reach the level of normal years."
" General sow from pregnancy to piglet birth needs 4 months, 1 month after piglet weight reached 7 kg out of the column to fattening, raised to commodity pig out of the column needs 5 months, you can judge the next 10 months from the situation of commercial pig out of the column.
according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in November 2020 can breed sows have been restored to the annual level of more than 90% of the judgment, the second half of 2021 pig out of the column or close to the perennal level.
production capacity has increased the supply of pigs, but has also raised expectations of a decline in pig prices.
Li Weifeng, chairman of the Guangdong Agricultural Industry Fund and general manager of Guangdong Innovation Center, said there would be no major outbreak in the future, and that perhaps our generation would not necessarily see a pig price of more than 20 yuan.
more than a year, Guangdong and other places pig production progress is very fast.
prices will fall in 2021 compared with sky-high prices in 2020, and low prices are highly likely in 2022.
when pig prices fall, many other industries, such as real estate, may leave the market midway through, and by 2022 it is not ruled out that anyone will sell a pig farm at half price.
Tao Idashan, chairman of The Tang Dynasty, has also said publicly that, according to incomplete statistics, China's major pig-breeding enterprises have released the size of pig-raising projects under construction or will be built will reach 2 billion head, while China's pork consumption is only 650 million head, the future pig industry will be overcapacity, pork prices will fall to 8-10 yuan / kg.
, however, compared with these long-term forecasts, Xu Chunyu, vice chairman of Zhengda Group's agro-pastoral food company (China), has focused on the end of the first quarter of 2021.
" at the end of the first quarter pig prices can hold 25 yuan / kg is a key window.
" Xu Chunyu believes that the outbreak will have a greater impact on market supply and demand, if the price can not hold 25 yuan / kg, then the price is expected to decline all the way, and if held, the full-year price will be relatively strong.
, purchasing director of Henan Tiankanghong Exhibition, said market uncertainty remained high in the second half of 2021.
is whether the amount of frozen meat imports is further released, and the second is the amount of sows and pigs that can breed.
expected that in the second half of next year, the stock of sows and pigs can basically return to normal year levels, the price is expected to remain at 19-23 yuan / kg. Zhang Lili, a researcher in the pig industry at
ZhuoTron Information, said that without major outbreaks and major policy changes, pig prices in 2021 may show an overall downward trend, and production capacity will be released or accelerated in the second half of the year, although the end of September 2021 coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival boost, there is a small increase in the market, but the overall forecast for September 2021 national average pig prices or 21.5-22.5 yuan / kg.
the 10th round of price increases in the feed industry, pig farming costs in 2021 will further improve the current pig profit situation? According to the latest statistics of ZhuoTron information, in December 2020, driven by the continued rise in pig prices, pig stock ratio showed a rising trend, and once again broke through the "11" mark, the expected level of profitability of breeding units rebounded to 1168 yuan / head.
in January 2021, the supply of pigs or slightly increased, but supported by consumption, pig prices are difficult to have a significant decline, it is expected that the earnings of farming will remain high volatility.
although farming profits are still high, the cost of farming has been rising.
recently, New Hope, Cargy, Anyou, Twins, Zhengbang, Yangxiang and other enterprises have announced price increases, the 2020 feed industry's 10th round of price increases hit.
Pan Xiaocheng believes that from a fixed cost point of view, the overall cost of farming is also rising.
, the cost of new amortization of capacity expansion, the increase in salary expenses, anti-non-plague equipment input, washing consumption expenditure, are higher than in the past few years, all have to be accounted for into the cost of breeding.
Xu Chunyu predicted that the 2021 pig breeding industry profits will not be as good as in 2020, on the one hand, pig sales prices overall down, on the other hand, the cost is constantly moving up.
, the total cost of self-breeding farming increased by about 3 to 5 yuan/kg compared to the pre-epidemic level; The full cost of breeding piglets to buy piglets to raise the price of piglets continues to rise, the degree of change is much greater than the self-breeding groups, in 2020 the proportion of piglets in the cost of more than 50%, far higher than the 30% before the plague.
In addition, corn and soybean meal prices are at their highest levels in recent years, and are expected to remain high in 2021, feed costs will rise in 2021, and other spending is expected to increase further in 2021.