Uneven operation of oil enterprises

Introduction: Recently, the price of soybeans on the outside market has been falling all the way, which has led to a great difference in the cost of imported soybeans for domestic oil companies At the same time, the price of soybean meal in the north and south of China has been differentiated, which makes the operation of oil companies uneven This year, some domestic oil plants ordered a large number of American and South American soybeans at high prices Due to the sharp drop in international soybean prices at the time of delivery, the prices of domestic soybean products such as soybean oil and soybean meal also continued to fall, coupled with macro-control factors such as the tension of enterprise credit funds, etc., the performance of contracts by import enterprises directly led to losses, and the whole industry was in trouble At present, different types of oil companies in different regions have different starting costs and profits There are some differences in the cost of imported soybeans in recent months At present, the cost of imported soybeans in most oil plants in South China is as high as 3800-3900 yuan / ton According to the local transaction price of 6150 yuan / ton of soyoil and the actual transaction price of 2850 yuan / ton of soybean meal, the crushing loss still reaches 300-400 yuan / ton, resulting in the recent operating rate of only about 60% The squeezing cost range of imported soybeans in the northern region is relatively large, ranging from 3100-3800 yuan / ton The oil plants are operating normally now, and the squeezing profit has improved significantly The average squeezing profit is around 200 yuan / ton, and the inland oil plants are always waiting In the early stage, in order to reduce the loss margin, some international suppliers are speeding up the sale of soybeans without owners due to early default in the port at a low price of 2800-2900 yuan / ton to collect funds According to the current actual transaction price of soybean oil, the factory cost of soybean meal is only around 2200 yuan / ton Obviously, this part of soybean crushing profit is relatively rich, and the powerful oil plants are also more active in purchasing According to the model calculation, when the new soybean arrives in Hong Kong, the profit level of this region will be further expanded Due to the difference in the cost of imported soybeans of domestic oil plants in the near future, the sales strategies of soybean meal are also different, and the oil plants with relatively high crushing cost have a strong willingness to ship at present; the oil plants with relatively low crushing cost have relatively stable shipments, which do not follow the rising market, and react coldly to the fluctuation of market price; in addition, some oil plants are under the pressure of inventory and high temperature and humidity, Also hope to ship as soon as possible As most of the soybean import costs from oil plants to Hong Kong in recent months are at a high level, therefore, if the soybean price in the U.S market falls further in the later period, it is undoubtedly worse for the oil and fat enterprises currently in a loss state, and it is inevitable to shuffle; if the domestic soybean meal price rebound in the near future, late differentiation is inevitable On the whole, the fate of the enterprise will be determined by the amount of imported soybeans in the later stage At present, the license issuing speed of domestic imported soybeans has started to accelerate obviously, and most oil plants still mainly consume soybeans in stock At present, the port soybean stock is about 2.4 million tons In July, the South American soybean arrivals are estimated to be between 1.5-1.6 million tons In August, the soybean arrivals are estimated to be between 1.6-1.8 million tons In September, the initial estimated arrivals are over 1 million tons Before the new season soybean supply market in the United States, it can basically meet the normal domestic market demand In addition, the oil factory will increase the purchasing power of imported crude soybean oil, which will reduce the purchasing power of soybean import to a certain extent It is expected that the overall import volume of soybean oil in the whole third quarter of China will be close to 900000 tons, which is equivalent to more than 4 million tons of imported soybean