Understanding the future trend of soybean meal price from the perspective of demand

Introduction: first, the basic principle of shifting the focus from supply to demand economics tells us that there are two main types of changes in the price of a commodity: one is cost driven, the other is demand driven In the first case, the most important factor determining the price of a commodity is the cost of raw materials to produce the commodity (under the condition that the processing cost is relatively stable) In the second case, the main factor determining the price of a commodity is the consumption capacity of the market for the commodity In the vast majority of cases, the price of goods is affected by these two factors at the same time, but in different market conditions, the primary and secondary positions of the impact are different But in many cases, market participants tend to pay too much attention to one aspect of the factors, and ignore the role of the other, so when market conditions change, investors will become very passive if they can not adjust their thinking immediately In terms of soybean meal, the cost of raw materials and the consumption capacity of soybean meal market are the two most important factors affecting the price change In the operation trend of soybean meal price, investors may pay more attention to the impact of the supply of crushed raw materials soybean on the price of soybean meal, but relatively they will not pay much attention to the changes of consumption demand on the price of soybean meal Since the third quarter of 2004, with the global soybean harvest, the record production has been an insurmountable mountain above the soybean meal price Soybean yield has become the biggest negative factor that dominates the price trend of soybean meal However, with the passage of time, the negative effect of output on the price will be fatigued, so the impact of output factors on the market is unlikely to continue indefinitely The continuously falling market has fully reflected the increase of output factors In the future, we need to focus on the demand, the impact of the change of soybean meal consumption demand on the price of soybean meal The sound will become more and more obvious 2 Reviewing the influence of demand factors on soybean meal market in 2004, after one to two months of short-term consolidation at the end of 2003, CBOT soybean price continued to rise sharply at the beginning of 2004, and soybean meal price also soared along the way, even the futures price of meal reached a historical high of 3789 yuan / ton After the Spring Festival, avian influenza broke out in China At that time, a large number of poultry were slaughtered, exports were blocked, domestic consumption of poultry meat and eggs was greatly reduced, and many regions were afraid of poultry breeding China's poultry breeding industry and feed industry were severely hit But by the end of February, domestic avian influenza was effectively controlled At the same time, the State Council issued a number of measures to support the development of poultry industry In terms of subsidies and taxes, the poultry industry is supported, and the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement the market is rising With the passage of time, the off-season of soybean meal sales is gradually over, and the consumption demand of soybean meal begins to increase The feed enterprises and dealers who were originally waiting for them start to purchase soybean meal due to the shortage of inventory and other reasons, and the demand for soybean meal begins to increase The recovery of demand led to the rise of spot price By the end of March and early April 2004, the highest spot price of soybean meal in China was close to 3700 yuan / ton In China, from the composition of compound feed, the proportion of pigs is about 30%, that of meat and poultry is about 30%, that of egg and poultry is about 22%, and that of soybean meal used in poultry feed is about 40% - 50% of the total amount If the total amount of soybean meal used in China is 20 million tons, then the amount of soybean meal used in poultry feed is about 8-9 million tons, which will cause a straight-line drop in soybean meal demand in the short term Moreover, soybean meal is not easy to store, and a large number of soybean meal squeezed in the early stage competed for price reduction in order to rush out, resulting in a rapid decline in price The outbreak of avian influenza was controlled at the end of February At the early stage of the outbreak, the market people's estimation of the lag effect of avian influenza on poultry breeding industry was seriously insufficient It was only in April and may that it was clearly and intensively reflected Dalian soybean and soybean meal were in a straight line downward From April to September, the current futures price of soybean meal fell all the way, engulfing all the previous gains, and the price fell to the price range of 2300-2500 In October, the price of soybean meal and other raw materials continued to fall around the national day, and egg prices across the country also fell sharply, and the drop was up to the drop in the price of raw materials The benefit of breeding is not optimistic The amount of chicks in the farm is lower than the normal level The main reason is that the "bird flu" epidemic in Southeast Asian countries continues, and the domestic consumption demand is still low Although the egg price and breeding efficiency are normal, the farmers are not optimistic about the future market In addition, the price of soybean meal fluctuated frequently from August 2003 to the end of 2004, which made the farmers feel that the market is erratic, the market risk is increased, and the breeding benefit is not guaranteed Therefore, the enthusiasm to make up the column was greatly reduced at the end of the year As a result, the demand for poultry feed is always in a weak state However, with the approaching of new year's day and Spring Festival, in order to ensure the centralized listing of livestock, poultry and aquatic products before the festival, the feed stock volume has increased At the end of the year, the increasing demand for feed kept the soybean meal price in the operating range of 2100-2200 3 The average price of piglets in 2004 was 13.17 yuan / kg, up 52.6% year on year On the whole, the first half of the year is lower than the second half of the year From January to September, it shows a strong upward trend In September, it reached a historical high of 15.98 yuan / kg After September, it began to fall back steadily to 14.05 yuan / kg at the end of the year In 2004, the price of piglets in China fluctuated between 10-16 yuan, which was much higher than that of 8-10 yuan / kg in 2003 Through the price trend of piglets in Figure 2, we can clearly see the situation of the market supplement of pigs in 2004 From June to October in 2004, there was a large number of concentrated market supplement period for pigs After October, the enthusiasm of the farmers to mend the fences was obviously weakened According to the survey of the information center of China Feed Industry Association, in June this year, the sale of two-way sows in pig farms in Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu and other major pig raising provinces was extremely hot The price of 30-40kg long two-way sows was about 1200-1300 yuan, about 200 yuan higher than that in the first quarter, and many pig farmers ordered and paid in advance in order to buy sows After the "Spring Festival" in February 2004, the price of live pigs did not fall, but began the second round of strong increase It rose to 8.38 yuan / kg in April, 9.30 yuan / kg in August, and 9.66 yuan / kg in September, the highest point in nearly 10 years! After that, it began to fall back to 8.99 yuan / kg in November The demand for soybean meal caused by the substantial increase of the amount of pig's supplement to the stockyard, just to a certain extent, makes up for the shrinkage of the demand for soybean meal caused by the poor poultry breeding, which is the internal reason why the continuous meal is more resistant to drop than the continuous bean Based on the above analysis, we predict that sows in the first "peak" period (3 months to maturity, breeding + 114 days of gestation) will have their first birth (November and December) nearly 7 months later Weaning should be sold in January 2005 At that time, the demand for pig feed will gradually increase, and they will be bred in April and May 2005 When the market comes out, the demand for pig feed will have a small peak, which will directly lead to a stage high demand for soybean meal in pig compound feed In the same way, the sows in the "fanatical" period from June to October will enter the peak of weaning market after March and April of 2005 After April, the demand for pig compound feed will gradually increase By June and July of 2005, the demand for feed will again appear a stage high, thus driving the price of soybean meal up 4 After the outbreak of avian influenza in early 2004, the market of poultry products in China has been in a low state for a long time, and the price of eggs has not been rising Although the "Dragon Boat Festival" at the end of June and the "Mid Autumn Festival" and the "National Day" at the end of September and the beginning of October all contributed to the sharp rise in the price of eggs, it soon began to fall back, falling to the normal price within half a month after the festival From the end of the national day to the end of 2004, the price of domestic eggs dropped substantially, and remained stable at the normal price, although the benefit of enterprise breeding has been greatly improved compared with that during the period of avian influenza However, due to the continuous "bird flu" epidemic in the surrounding countries and the ups and downs of the raw material market, the farmers did not have a very optimistic attitude towards the future market, which made the meat, egg and poultry supplement still depressed Although the sales of feed before the Spring Festival picked up, it had little impact on the market price of soybean meal The situation of laying hens' storage and replenishment determines the supply of eggs Therefore, it is the key to judge the trend of the future market to analyze the psychology of replenishment of laying hens The profit situation of layer culture directly determines the supplement of farmers The main factors that affect the profit level of layer culture are: the price of eggs, the price of chicken seedlings, the price of soybean meal, corn and other bulk feed raw materials, as well as the epidemic situation According to the questionnaire survey of layer breeders and feed processing enterprises in Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other places conducted by the information center of China Feed Industry Association, the most concern of current breeders and feed factories is the price of eggs and soybean meal But the most worry of farmers is the outbreak of disease and the price fluctuation of eggs and soybean meal The global avian influenza epidemic is continuing At the end of 2004 and the beginning of 2005, many countries and regions in Asia found and gradually expanded the epidemic, which will continue to have a negative impact on the trade, demand and production of poultry products In Asia, the shadow of avian influenza has been lingering At the beginning of the year, the spread of avian influenza in many countries in Asia, especially in China, has caused severe damage to the aquaculture industry in many regions In China, the consumption of soybean meal for poultry feed accounts for about 50% of the total consumption As the recovery of the breeding industry is not so optimistic as the market expected, the price of soybean meal has been in a weak downward trend With the increase of consumption at the end of the year, the price of soybean meal has recovered to a certain extent However, the fact that there is avian influenza in many areas around China recently is positive In terms of the restored breeding industry and soybean meal sales, it is no different from adding to the problem Therefore, the shadow that avian influenza may spread again in 2005 also brings uncertainty to the price of soybean meal Therefore, according to the analysis of the conditions of pig and meat, egg and poultry breeding, breeding is the key to the demand for soybean meal From the above price analysis, the price of domestic pig and chicken products in 2005 still generally supports the breeding profit in a reasonable state, and the expansion of feed enterprises may make this benefit more obvious Moreover, according to the domestic breeding investigation, the management awareness of the farms is generally enhanced, the price trend of the livestock products is analyzed scientifically, and the amount of supplement is adjusted automatically according to the market law to control the breeding efficiency, which is of great benefit to the enthusiasm of the breeding According to the statistics of information center of China Feed Industry Association, China's total feed output in 2004 was about 93 million tons, an increase of 6.9% over 2003 In 2004, the feed output increased rapidly, which is also the result of the active expansion of feed enterprises This expansion is continuous, which is the guarantee for the continuous growth of feed output in 2005 In terms of global feed production, China, Brazil and Mexico are the main driving forces for its growth The growth rate of feed production in these three countries has been maintained at 4-7% in recent years Mexico mainly imports American soybeans, but its influence is relatively weak Let's take a look at the feed production in Brazil