Trend analysis of fish meal in later period (6.9)

OA show ('918 '); since the beginning of the year, the market of fish meal in 2000 has been declining The domestic price has dropped from 3950 yuan / ton to 3650 yuan / ton, and there is no sign of warming up Then, in the second half of this year, how will the trend of fish meal be? The author analyzes it from the following aspects 1 Analysis of fishing volume from the fishing situation of Peru, Chile and other major exporting countries, this year's supply of fish meal will increase compared with last year, of which Peru's fishing volume is estimated to reach 8.8 million tons, higher than last year's 8.3 million tons In addition, Chile's fishing volume is also relatively optimistic 2 Analysis of world demand with the gradual recovery of the world economy, it is expected that the world economic growth rate will be 3% this year, of which China's economic growth rate is expected to be about 7% The growth of the world economy will lead to the increase of demand for meat food, which will stimulate the development of feed industry and lay a solid foundation for the growth of demand for fish meal 3 The government of Peru intervened in the market last year because of the sharp fall in the price of fish meal and the heavy loss of the fish meal factory in Peru It is estimated that this year, the government of Peru will further adopt government measures such as banning fishing to strengthen the regulation and control of the fish meal market It can be predicted that Peruvian fish meal will never return to the low price level of last year 4 The price comparison between fish meal and soybean meal is unreasonable at the current level, that is to say, according to the current price of the two, the price of fish meal is obviously low, which is not expected to last for a long time Moreover, due to the state's value-added tax on soybean meal, the import of soybean meal in China has been stagnant this year, with only a small amount of imports, which will lead to a high price of soybean meal for a long time this year 5 The involvement of European buyers is an important supporting factor for the fish meal market Due to the weakness of European currency and other reasons, the amount of fish meal purchased in Europe and the Middle East has been greatly reduced this year Because of this, its potential purchasing power cannot be ignored It can be predicted that once European buyers enter the market to buy a large number of fish meal, it will inevitably lead to the rise of fish meal 6 Prohibition of fishing in Peru and China is another supporting factor for the fish meal market August / September is an important breeding period of fish and the traditional fishing ban period in Peru Generally, the fishing ban lasts from 45 days to 60 days The domestic fishing ban will be implemented for about 3 months in June, which greatly affects the supply of domestic and international fish meal According to the records of the past decade, the price of fish meal will rise significantly in the international market after entering September every year To sum up, this year's fish meal market is expected to go out of the trough in June / July and gradually enter the rising channel after a long period of bottoming out According to the quotation of shipping schedule in June usd380 / mt CNF, the arrival price of Peruvian fish meal calculated by China's main ports is about rmb3400 / T, which is close to the cost price of fish meal production It can be predicted that once there is a reversal signal in the market, there will be a large increase of fish meal in the second half of 2000 I estimate that the price between 3800-4200 yuan / T is reasonable China feed industry information network S6K (author:)