Top 10 challenges in 2005: food gap ranked first

Introduction: Xinhua Beijing, March 1 (reporter Qin Jie, Zhao Cheng, Zhang Xiaosong) in 2004, China's economic and social development has made remarkable achievements This is the result of implementing the scientific outlook on development and the achievement of implementing macro-control In 2005, despite many favorable conditions for economic and social development, problems and contradictions can not be ignored All in all, there are ten challenges testing China In particular, Xinhua invited Lu Zhongyuan, Minister of the macroeconomic Department of the development research center of the State Council, and Lu Jianhua, a researcher at the Institute of Sociology of the Academy of Social Sciences, to comment on these challenges Challenge 1: there is still a gap in food supply There is limited space for farmers to increase their income In 2004, China witnessed a good momentum of "increasing food production, increasing agricultural efficiency and increasing farmers' income" However, at present, there is still a gap of tens of billions of kilograms of grain every year in our country, which has to be made up by importing and using inventory With the central government's policies of reducing agricultural taxes and agricultural taxes gradually in place, the space for farmers to reduce their burdens and increase their incomes in the future is limited Lu Zhongyuan: maintaining the balance of grain supply and demand and promoting the increase of farmers' income are arduous tasks in the medium and long term We need to pay attention to the new characteristics of the "three rural" problems in the new development stage: the multi-channel income sources of farmers, the proportion of wage income has increased significantly; the market competition has intensified, the contradiction between more people and less land has become prominent; the problem of farmers losing land and unemployment has become increasingly prominent; the rural economic structure is facing new adjustment The rural economic organization and land system need to be further reformed There should be new ideas to solve the "three rural" problems in the new stage, especially to break the institutional barriers of urban-rural division and let farmers share the fruits of reform and development Challenge 2: the new blind investment is forming a long way to go for macro-control Controlling the excessive growth of investment scale is the focus of macro-control for more than a year However, as the investment growth rate of some overheated industries such as steel, cement, aluminum industry and real estate development dropped significantly, some new blind investment is emerging: disordered construction of power station projects, and the production capacity of mobile phone enterprises is growing too fast Lu Zhongyuan: since last year, the aggregate tightening and structural guidance measures have achieved results, but the institutional roots of blind investment and low-level expansion have not been completely eliminated In addition, the original structural contradictions have evolved new structural imbalances in market regulation, which puts forward new requirements for this year's macro-control and institutional reform In the future, it is not only necessary to maintain the stable growth of investment and prevent the excessive expansion of investment demand, but also to deepen the reform of investment system, mainly using economic and legal means to guide the direction of investment, taking the market as the guide to support the superior and limit the inferior, and promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure Challenge 3: extensive coal, electricity and oil transportation are still tight As China's economy enters the rising period of a new round of growth cycle, the contradiction of resource constraints will become more prominent this year: all kinds of coal mines are basically in the state of full load and over capacity production, and there is limited room to continue to increase production, so the contradiction between coal supply and demand will be more acute; the situation of power supply shortage is still difficult to fundamentally ease, and the largest power gap is estimated to be about 25 million kilowatts; crude oil import The continuous increase of ports brings great pressure on the purchase, transportation, port unloading and transfer of imported crude oil; the capacity of main railway lines is saturated, and there is little room for capacity expansion Lu Zhongyuan: in addition to the impact of the expansion of investment demand and the extensive mode of economic growth, the prominent shortage of coal, electricity and oil transportation supply since last year also reflects three problems: first, the booming consumption hot spots such as housing and automobile; second, the unreasonable price mechanism of basic industries; third, the previous estimates of energy and raw material demand are more conservative To alleviate the "bottleneck" of energy, we must fundamentally change the mode of economic growth, reform the price formation mechanism of basic industries as soon as possible, formulate a predictable development plan, and reasonably guide the increase of supply of coal, electricity and oil transportation Challenge 4: the impact of the continuous increase in the price of means of production on the price of consumer goods has gradually emerged The substantial increase in the price of means of production has lasted for two years, and the impact on downstream products and prices is gradually emerging Consumer spending rose 3.9% last year, the highest since 1997 Price is one of the issues that people are very concerned about If there is a substantial increase in consumer prices, it will bring a series of economic and social problems Lu Zhongyuan: the main factor influencing the price this year is the pressure brought by the continuous rise of the price of domestic means of production To prevent the price of means of production from rising too sharply, on the one hand, we need to curb the excessive expansion of investment demand, on the other hand, we need to maintain the full competition in the market, so that the factors of price rise can be digested When raising prices, the government shall earnestly implement the relevant provisions of the price law to prevent the prices of monopoly industries, public utilities and public service departments from rising too fast At the same time, problems such as high drug prices and high tuition fees, which are strongly reflected by the masses, should be properly solved Challenge 5: the contradiction between labor supply and demand will not change the employment situation in a short period of time In 2004, the goal of employment and reemployment in China was fully realized, with 9.8 million new urban employees However, the contradiction between the total supply and demand of labor force and the structural contradiction will not be fundamentally changed in the short term, especially in the central and western regions and the old industrial bases, the difficult industries, the closure of bankrupt enterprises, resource exhausted cities and the employment problems of the difficult groups Lu Zhongyuan: due to the reform of state-owned enterprises, the adjustment of industrial structure and the impact of China's accession to the WTO, the structural contradiction between labor supply and demand is becoming more and more prominent In addition, the growth of working age population in the next decade will still be at its peak, with an estimated annual increase of about 10 million people, and a large number of agricultural labor force to be transferred to non-agricultural industries and cities At present, there are only about 9 million new jobs in cities and towns every year, which will inevitably aggravate the contradiction between the total supply and demand of labor force To alleviate the contradiction between labor supply and demand, the key is to open source We will open up new areas, forms and channels of employment Challenge 6: institutional shortcomings need to be further eliminated The urgency of reform increasingly highlights the rapid growth of investment, the pressure of rising prices, and the shortage of energy supply All the problems exposed in the economic development in 2004 cannot be found At present, the system and mechanism malpractices that cause prominent contradictions and problems in the economic operation have not been eliminated In the process of promoting reform in some major fields, there are still problems such as disunity of understanding, nonstandard operation and non matching of measures Lu Zhongyuan: the main motivation of this round of economic rise period is quite different from the past, and the marketization degree of economic operation is improved At the same time, there are some serious new problems, such as blindly promoting urbanization, abusing land resources and infringing the interests of farmers The root of the problems exposed in last year's economic operation is still the defects of system and mechanism Therefore, there is an urgent need to coordinate and push forward the reforms in key areas and strive to make breakthroughs; the ways and means of macro-control should also speed up the reform to make it more in line with the objective laws of the market economy Challenge 7: growing external constraints on becoming a trading power but not a powerful one Last year, China's total import and export trade exceeded the trillion dollar mark for the first time, rising from the fourth place in the previous year to the third place in the world trade ranking, becoming a real world trade power, but far from becoming a world trade power; at the same time, with China's accession to the World Trade Organization for three years, external constraints have increased accordingly Lu Zhongyuan: in the "post transition period" after China's accession to the WTO, China's economy will face greater international competition pressure and more "new trade barriers" These factors may affect the growth rate of China's foreign trade this year In the future, in the further development of an open economy, efforts should be made to promote the transformation of the growth mode of foreign trade to the mode of quality and efficiency Actively carry out various forms of international regional economic cooperation, continue to implement the strategy of market diversification and winning by quality, and enhance the ability to explore international markets and use international resources Make full use of international practices to promote domestic enterprises and industries to enhance their core competitiveness Challenge 8: since last year, the continuous occurrence of major coal mine accidents has attracted much attention On the one hand, the coal supply has continued to be tense, on the other hand, major coal mine accidents have continued to occur According to statistics, driven by the market and interests, the problem of coal mine super capacity production in China is very serious Last year, nearly 40% of the coal was produced in the absence of safety guarantee Lu Jianhua: under the background of emphasizing "people-oriented" and building a harmonious society, development and security must be given equal attention, which is the consensus of the whole country In order to solve the problem of safety production, it is necessary to speed up the renovation of safety facilities, speed up the improvement of coal mine safety production conditions, and make the coal industry gradually develop in the direction of safety, quality, efficiency and environmental protection At the same time, we should speed up the solution to the problem of tight coal, electricity and oil transportation, and prevent the production of energy products such as coal mines from exceeding capacity There should be special means to strengthen the management and supervision of safety production, and more emphasis should be placed on the integration of administrative, legal and economic forces Challenge 9: the relative lag of social development mechanism and system is the key At present, there are many disharmonious phenomena in our society, especially the obvious lag of social development in economic development Social undertakings, especially education, health and other social undertakings related to the welfare of the whole people, have relatively lagged behind Lu Jianhua: we must form a mechanism for coordinated economic and social development The new mechanism should reorient the functions of the government, clarify the public characteristics of the government, and strengthen its basic functions of serving the social public affairs; at the same time, it should also regulate the expression of the interests of enterprises and capital, so that it has the characteristics of serving the social undertakings; the orientation of the government's public policies and the relevant institutional arrangements should break the single thinking of economic construction as the center I want to adhere to the people-oriented and sustainable development point of view and effectively promote the development of social undertakings Challenge 10: the anti-corruption system, which is in urgent need of both punishment and prevention, has been established from time to time in major corruption cases Last year, under the strong and powerful leadership of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, Party committees and governments at all levels earnestly implemented the central government's plan to fight against corruption and build a clean and honest government, and new progress has been made in the work of party conduct and anti-corruption However, we should also be aware that at present, corruption in some places has not been effectively curbed, major cases have occurred from time to time, some places and departments are still seriously harming the interests of the masses, and the people are not satisfied Lu Jianhua: it is becoming more and more important for us to carry out in-depth anti-corruption work, especially the prevention and control of corruption from the source, to comprehensively strengthen the party's construction and ensure the smooth progress of reform, opening up and modernization In order to prevent and control corruption at the source, we must establish an anti-corruption system with both punishment and prevention, and strengthen the work of preventing corruption; we must adhere to the method of reform to solve the deep-seated problems of corruption, accelerate the transformation of government functions, strengthen the system construction, and increase the supervision and restriction of power operation.