Too many pigs?

 　　After entering the winter, the resurgence of African swine fever has intensified the elimination of sows in the past two months, and once again raised concerns about the future supply of live pigs.

　　On February 21, the 18th Central No.

　　The document pointed out that this year's goal and task will be to ensure the stable development of the pig industry, protect the basic production capacity of pigs, and improve the long-term mechanism for the stable and orderly development of the pig industry.

　　Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told Times Finance and Economics that the current pig production capacity is steadily recovering.
Although the supply situation of pigs is gradually improving, it is unlikely that such an oversupply situation will occur in 2021.
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　　"There is still a 6-month interval between the pig stock and the pig slaughter.
If the pig stock returns to normal in the second quarter, it will take about the fourth quarter to restore the supply of pigs to normal, so there is no need to consider the problem of surplus at present.
" However, Zhu Zengyong still pointed out that by 2022, especially after 2023, the adjustment of pig production capacity should be considered.
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　　As for how to stabilize the "basic market" of pig production capacity, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also mentioned at the meeting that it will closely monitor the development of pig production and study specific methods to stabilize and reserve production capacity to ensure a stable pig industry.
development of.
More specifically, the next step of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will focus on how to reserve the production capacity of live pigs.
"We will closely monitor the dynamics of production development, and study the specific methods to stabilize and reserve production capacity just mentioned to ensure the stable development of the pig industry.
" Tang Renjian said.
Among them, "stabilizing the basic production capacity of live pigs" means to firmly maintain the two major indicators of the number of live pigs and the number of breeding sows.
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　　Zhu Zengyong believes that to ensure basic production capacity, it is necessary to study and formulate a standard line of pig production capacity.
"For example, an early warning indicator is set up for fluctuations within 5% of the normal production capacity of reproductive sows.
If the fluctuation range exceeds 5%, an early warning message will be issued in time.
Once the range is exceeded, the government will initiate corresponding early warning and guidance measures, or corresponding Emergency subsidies to prevent pig prices from falling excessively during the downturn.
” Zhu Zengyong also believes that the production capacity of major pig-producing provinces such as Sichuan and Henan can be used as a representative indicator of pig stocks.
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　　Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that in 2020, the number of live pigs in the country will reach 527.
04 million, and the national live pig stock will be 406.
5 million.
Among them, Sichuan Province had 56.
144 million pigs for slaughter in the whole year, accounting for 10.
7%, ranking first in the country for slaughter pigs.
Hunan and Henan ranked second and third with 46.
599 million pigs and 43.
522 million pigs.
In addition, according to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the 22nd, as of the end of last year, the pig stock had recovered to more than 92%, which was 12 percentage points higher than expected.
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　　However, since the winter of last year, the resurgence of African swine fever has intensified the elimination of sows in the past two months, and has once again raised concerns about the future supply of live pigs.
According to the monitoring data of Zhuo Chuang Information, the stock of reproductive sows in China fell by 5.
87% month-on-month in January, which was the first month of decline after 16 consecutive months of positive growth.
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　　Li Xia, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told Times Finance and Economics on the 22nd that the main reason for the decline in the stock of reproductive sows is that the domestic market is more serious, especially in large companies.
Shandong, Hebei and other places have become the most important parts of this round of African swine fever.
disaster area.
"From a geographical point of view, the northern market has been greatly affected, and the southern market has not yet appeared in a large area.
Due to the relatively low breeding density in the three northeastern provinces, the stock loss is lower than other northern provinces, and the number of breeding sows has dropped by 3%-5% month-on-month.
The three provinces of Henan, Hubei, and Shandong are more concentrated in breeding and slaughtering production capacity, and are the only places that the northeast pig source must pass through.
The live pig trade is active and the damage is the highest, with a month-on-month decrease of more than 10%, and Shandong's damage is as high as 22 %.
In addition, because of the dense large farms in Hebei, the breeding density is slightly higher, and the damage is more serious.
" Not only that, the situation of group pig farms is not optimistic.
According to the daily economic news report, after the group’s sows were eliminated, the price of piglets rose again and again.
At present, the price of 14 kg of freshly weaned piglets has reached 1,600 yuan per head.
According to expert analysis, if the group continues to rob pigs, the price of piglets may even be possible.
Back to 2,000 yuan a head.
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　　Zhu Zengyong believes that, according to the current situation of the recovery of pig production capacity, although African swine fever will have an uncertain impact on the speed and scale of production capacity recovery, farmers are more motivated to replenish stocks, and pig production capacity is still showing a good trend of steady recovery.
We can also get a glimpse of the recent trend of declining live pig prices.
CITIC Futures predicts that the center of gravity of pig prices will shift downward in 2021, and the average slaughter price is expected to move towards RMB 20/kg.
Among them, the first quarter of the Spring Festival may be the high point of the price during the year, the second and third quarters will have seasonal low prices, and the fourth quarter will rebound slightly.
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　　Li Xia also believes that from the current recovery speed of pig production capacity and the stable epidemic situation, the increase in pig production capacity this year is a major trend.
“It is expected that the number of live pigs at the end of the year will be restored to 90% or more of the normal year.
Winter is the period when the epidemic is high.
As the temperature rises, the adverse impact of the epidemic will be weakened.
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　　She suggested that the industry should rationally view the impact of the sudden (conventional) epidemic on the market, and focus on the changes in the southern market and the uncontrollable factors brought about by the rainy season in the future.
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