Tomorrow's listing, pig futures wind control is strict, has completed the unilateral protection industry

China's first live as the trading target of the futures varieties - pig futures, January 8 will be listed on the market.
Pig futures will be listed tomorrow, the future market will certainly build a quality, price weather, and for the market and the vast number of investors, the most concerned about the issue is the rise and fall of pig futures prices.
then, in the future, China's pig breeding recovery speed up, as well as a substantial increase in pig production, the first batch of listed pig futures September contracts and other contracts of the price will run? What will be the impact of pig futures on market prices after listing? Strict wind control, pig futures after the listing of the focus is there?" Participation in pig futures trading must first be a systematic study of pig futures contracts and other relevant rules.
" CITIC Construction Investment Futures Agricultural Products Division pig researcher Wei Xin believes that investors want to find opportunities to intervene in pig futures, the use of futures tools to effectively avoid risks, the basic contract rules of pig futures, transaction costs and other in-depth study, in addition to doing a good job in the pig market fundamentals research work, should focus on the understanding of pig futures system, delivery standards and delivery process control aspects.
" from the pig futures contract design concept, in-depth understanding of pig futures contract rules, you can draw 'pre-management, simple delivery, multi-mode, strict risk control' design conclusions.
" Wei Xin told the Futures Daily reporter, in the pig futures delivery standards, only the weight and appearance, weight can be easily measured, the appearance can be clear under the field of three-way inspection, so delivery can be simple, not too complex standards, this is the pig futures design concept of "simple delivery."
, however, the standard of on-site inspection will be relaxed, how to ensure that the seller can control food, body size, meat yield, back thickness and other aspects of the spot market value to meet the requirements? This is the scope of "pre-management".
to build a monitoring system from breeding source to breeding to slaughtering, and to work on the examination and delivery of delivery depots and the tracking of slaughter to ensure the quality of pigs handed over.
It is obvious that "pre-management" ensures "simple delivery", and "simple delivery" provides conditions for the stable operation of pig futures in the delivery process and the reduction of disputes, thus shortening the delivery time, close to the spot, so that live pigs with a certain biological uniqueness have the conditions for standardized trading, which is conducive to promoting the return of spot prices.
, one of the aims of the introduction of pig futures is to help farming enterprises achieve risk control.
in the traditional enterprise hedging, the exit mode of enterprises is only closed positions and delivery, but pig futures delivery also faces a certain degree of uncertainty.
"multi-model" for upstream and downstream enterprises in the hedging after exiting the market channels made a bold innovation, buyers and sellers through communication can choose pig buy-back, group farming enterprises can self-report water for each other to choose, and even with pork instead of delivery.
"multi-modal model" provides more options for the "last journey" of hedging by aquaculture enterprises.
addition, "strict risk control" as one of the main concepts of pig futures design, ostensibly means a lower position limit, but also means a higher margin level.
, in fact, "simple delivery" from the delivery level, "multi-mode" from the hedging exit level to serve the "strict risk control."
can be said that "pre-management, simple delivery, multi-model, strict risk control" this design idea, aimed at the pursuit of market stability, while trying to play the role of futures risk management to play a real role.
" careful analysis can be found that pig futures contract design, delivery design and margin, fee level reflects a systematic strict risk control thinking.
contract design, with 16 tons as a hand, in line with the standards of off-the-shelf loading.
At the same time, the unit value of pigs is higher, resulting in a higher corresponding value per pig, while we can see that the level of speculative margin is 15%, far higher than the level of about 5% of most varieties, the participation threshold corresponding to increase.
relative to the level of speculative margin, the hedging margin level of 8%, for industrial enterprises to give certain concessions, reduce the cost of hedging funds.
through different levels of margin design, the power of market hedging and speculation will also be balanced.
idea of encouraging hedging and limiting speculation should be maintained in the early stages of the listing of pig futures.
On the one hand, the margin is higher, on the other hand, pig futures trading fees also reached the level of two thousandths of an overnight, four-tenths of a millionth of a day, showing the willingness of regulatory agencies to limit speculation and reduce speculation in the market within days.
" Wei Xin said, generally in the context of the new varieties listed, the market's willingness to speculate is relatively strong, especially pig this aspect of attention is relatively high varieties.
pork price volatility is one of the biggest sources of CPI fluctuations, based on this, in addition to the traditional industrial chain and speculative funds, there are many new investment funds to focus on pig breeds.
pork, as the most consumed meat in China, is of great significance to the protection of people's livelihood.
the animal husbandry industry as one of the most employed agricultural industries, its profit level is also related to the healthy development of the whole industry.
Whether from the macro or micro point of view, pig and pork price fluctuations on the economic and social impact is relatively large, futures market as a market with price discovery significance, but also industrial enterprises to carry out risk control of the market, if there is and the spot market supply and demand do not meet the speculation, or there is a large fluctuations that do not match the spot market fluctuations, for the economy, industry may have an impact.
In addition, is currently in the normal control period of African swine fever, pig supply gradually recovered, the downward trend in prices is obvious, but the rhythm is still difficult to control, all aspects are concerned about pig price expectations, but also need the stable operation of futures.
", we believe it is relatively reasonable for regulators to set a higher trading threshold.
," Wei Xin said.
production capacity recovered more than expected, pig futures prices react? Li Qiang, general manager of first Kyoto Futures, told the Futures Daily that recently, there has been a hot spot in the domestic capital market, mainly agricultural futures prices and pig-related stock prices rose sharply has become the focus of investors' attention, especially on the first day of the market in 2021, the domestic pig farmers - Makhara shares on the opening of the rapid rise and stop.
in the current domestic pig and pork prices are still showing a strong upward trend, pig futures listing and how large and medium-sized pig enterprises in the future to develop into the focus of the market.
, how the target of the 2021 industrial enterprise pig column is the most important concern of the market, which is the main factor that determines the future domestic pig, pork spot market price and pig futures price rise and fall.
industry analysts believe that the domestic top 10 pig-breeding giants in 2021 than in 2020 plans to increase 1.5 times, the number will be as high as 144 million head.
if the pig out of the column plan in 2021 can be successfully completed in the future, then the proportion of the top 10 pig enterprises out of the column in 2021 will reach the national expected pig out of the column 22.86 percent.
data show that New Hope Vi and 2020 have achieved the overall annual target of 8 million pigs on schedule.
and from the December 2020 pig sales briefing released by Makhara and Jinxinnon, both companies have also achieved their 2020 pig out-of-stock targets.
addition, it is understood that from January to November 2020, 12 listed pig enterprises accumulated 47.3381 million pigs.
"From what I know about the market situation, Zhengbang Technology 2021 pig out of the column volume is expected to be 25 million head, the new hope of 25 million head out of the column volume target unchanged."
if the production land is effectively replenished, the stock of pigs and sows in The original shares will be greatly increased, and the company's capacity expansion will show a quarter-on-quarter momentum in 2021.
addition, Wen set a target of 30 million head by 2021.
," Li said.
" pig futures listed after who is the main force in the market, industrial enterprises or investment institutions to dominate will be another key factor in the rise and fall of market prices.
Yaxiong, chief agricultural analyst at Citic Capital Futures, believes that the choice of the benchmark price for pig futures listing is closer to the market's average forecast for the 2021 pig price center.
through field research and data analysis, farmers generally believe that the risk of falling pig prices will be concentrated in the second quarter of 2021, while the most recent contract on the futures market is September.
From the pig market consumption characteristics, September itself is a seasonal peak season month, after the listing of pig futures, it is not appropriate for investors to hedging, pig breeding enterprises are expected to most of the first wait-and-see, and will quickly establish their own hedging team, research future hedging strategy and plan.
addition, pig futures hedging will require a higher amount of margin preparation.
a farming enterprise in Henan Province, for example, if the previous 30 million head of the full hedging plan, need to prepare at least 10 billion hedging funds.
According to reporters understand that the current domestic pig farming profits are high, pig grain ratio is still at a high level, which will have a strong stimulating effect on the recovery of pig farming, pig market supply is expected to gradually increase, 2021 domestic pig and pork prices have a higher probability of a down cycle.
However, considering that in the early stage of the recovery of domestic sow stock, the quality of sows is not high and structural inetensive problems, coupled with the African swine fever epidemic and other factors adversely affected, the growth rate of pig and pork supply and market price decline is expected to be relatively moderate.
Wei Xin, a pig researcher in citic construction investment futures and agricultural products division, said that according to the current rate of recovery of domestic pig stock, pig futures in September and beyond contract delivery, domestic pig farming has been restored to about the same.
, it can be determined that the situation of pig farming in the recovery, but the specific rhythm of recovery is more elastic.
"s pig futures contracts for tomorrow are September 2021, November 2021 and January 2022.
based on the current level of pig farming recovery, by September 2021, production capacity can return to the weak level of the normal pig cycle, the corresponding price is expected to return to the normal pig cycle strong price level.
" Wei Xin believes that the recovery of production capacity, especially the recovery of sows can not only have quantitative problems, but also structural problems.
in terms of numbers, the market's more accepted mainstream data is that the current level has returned to 80%, this level will certainly continue to rise in the coming year.
In terms of structure, there are now about 40% of the sows can breed is three yuan back to the sow, this group can breed sows relatively low efficiency of about 30%, and can breed sow structural problems to improve, it may take a long time.
addition, even binary pigs have advantages and disadvantages.
, it will take longer for the overall production capacity of domestic pigs to fully recover.
Industry professionals told reporters that from the current domestic can breed sows to keep the number of piglets, piglet sales and pig stock number analysis, affected by the Spring Festival factors, the short-term procurement demand will make domestic pig and pork prices at a high level, but the later continued rise in space is limited, while entering February 2021, with the increase in the number of pigs out of the column, the market price will gradually fall.
monitoring data released by the China Livestock Association show that from June to November 2020, the number of newborn piglets in 600 large-scale pig farms in China increased by 46.7%, 51.8%, 53.1%, 47.7%, 43.5% and 38.5% year-on-year, respectively.
From the relevant calculation data, assuming that the weight of the column is the same as in 2020, from February to May 2021, pork supply (regardless of imports of frozen pork) will increase by 26.4%, 15.5% and 1.2%, respectively, year-on-year (domestic pork plus frozen pork imports for the month, regardless of pre-inventory) 1%, 1.3%, live pig prices are likely to be lower than the same period in 2020 (From February to May 2020, respectively, 37.1 yuan / kg, 36.2 yuan / kg, 33.7 yuan / kg, 29.8 yuan / kg, based on the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Trade data).
from the China Livestock Association to monitor binary reserve sow sales and reserve sow storage column data, pig production capacity in the later period still maintained the growth trend.
January-November 2020, the cumulative sales volume of binary reserve sows in fixed-point monitoring-scale pig farms increased by 83.1% YoY, while the reserve sow storage column increased by 131% to 270% YoY.
if the epidemic stabilizes, pig production capacity will still increase significantly in the latter stages, pork supply will maintain a growth trend year-on-year, and the downward cycle of live pig prices will remain unchanged.
Wei Hongyang, deputy director of the Animal husbandry and veterinary bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said recently that as of the end of November 2020, the country's sow storage column has been growing for 14 consecutive months, pig storage column has been growing for 10 consecutive months, and the national pig storage column and can breed sow storage column have been restored to the annual level of more than 90%.
expected pork supply to increase significantly during the Spring Festival compared with the same period in 2019, pork prices in the Spring Festival before the demand-driven may slightly oscillate up, after the Spring Festival stabilising down.
pork market has continued to improve in recent times.
it is understood that the country's pig production column has been growing for 9 consecutive months, in November 2020 month-on-month growth of 16%, up 66.1% year-on-year, is the fourth quarter of 2019 pig production capacity bottomed out since the rebound in the largest month.
, the recovery in pig production has been more effective than expected.
trend, production capacity is expected to fully resume in the first half of 2021.
" Wei Hongyang said that according to the six-month fertilization cycle, the second half of 2021 pig out of the column is likely to reach normal year levels, pig supply will be greatly improved.
, with the rapid rise of a large number of high-level pig farms, pig farming is expected to increase significantly in scale.
Pig industry is a pillar industry of animal husbandry in China, its output value accounts for one-third of the total output value of animal husbandry, pork production accounts for nearly two-thirds of meat production, pork prices and consumer prices are closely related to the level of pig production and supply, to do a good job of stable production and supply of pigs is related to the national economy and people's livelihood.
to this, Wei Hongyang said, along with the spring