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Pig price gains have fallen back to the secondary warning range
.
According to the official WeChat public account of the National Development and Reform Commission on November 15, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the week of November 7-11, the weekly average price increase of lean meat retail prices in 36 large and medium-sized cities narrowed from more than 40% year-on-year to between 30% and 40%, and the first-level warning range of excessive rise determined by the "Plan for Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Ensure Supply and Stabilize Prices in the Pork Market" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") fell back to the second-level warning range
.
Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, also said on the same day that from the perspective of pork supply, there is no basis
for a sharp rise in pork prices.
At present, pig production capacity and pig inventory remain generally stable, and pig production is at a reasonable level, which does not support a sharp increase
in pork prices.
Pig prices fell for three consecutive weeks
In June last year, the National Development and Reform Commission and other six departments jointly issued the "Plan", adding two new early warning indicators, "change rate of breeding sow inventory" and "average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities", and graded the early warning by delineating the warning range; And there are regular reserves and temporary reserves for regulation
.
According to the "Plan", only for the indicator of lean meat retail prices in 36 large and medium-sized cities, when the average price of the week increases between 30% and 40% year-on-year, a secondary warning will be issued; When the year-on-year increase exceeds 40%, a first-level warning
is issued.
The "Plan" stipulates that under the situation of cyclical fluctuations in the market, the reserve release will be initiated when the secondary warning of excessive rise is issued; Increase investment when Level 1 warnings are
issued.
West China Securities pointed out in a research report on November 13 that Zhuyitong data shows that the average price of pigs in the country has fallen
for three consecutive weeks.
Statistics from the wholesale market price information system of the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also show that since October 30, the national pig price has dropped significantly, and as of press time, the pig price is still stable at 29.
4 yuan / kg
.
The NDRC pointed out that the current pig price is still at a high level, and the next step will be to closely track the market price changes, and recommend that farms (households) maintain a normal rhythm of production and operation to prevent the risk of
market price fluctuations.
The number of breeding sows has increased for five consecutive months
The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 15 showed that from January to October, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 2%
year-on-year.
In October, the CPI rose 2.
1% year-on-year, down 0.
7 percentage points from the previous month, and up 0.
1%
month-on-month.
Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, pointed out that affected by factors such as the pig production cycle and the reluctance of some farmers to sell at the pen, coupled with the low base in the same period of the previous year, pork prices rose by 51.
8% year-on-year, an increase of 15.
8 percentage points over the previous month, which was the main factor
pushing up the CPI.
Fu Linghui believes that from the perspective of pork supply, there is no basis
for a sharp rise in pork prices.
At present, pig production capacity and pig inventory remain generally stable, and pig production is at a reasonable level, which does not support a sharp increase
in pork prices.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video scheduling meeting on pig production and supply on October 28, and the meeting pointed out that the current basic production capacity of pigs is stable, and the number of breeding sows, pigs, and newborn piglets have rebounded for more than five consecutive months, and it is expected that the number of pigs on the market will increase steadily in the next few months, ensuring that the pork market supply during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival has a solid foundation
.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, the number of breeding sows in China has reached 43.
62 million, equivalent to 106.
4% of the normal holdings, and the production capacity has increased significantly, which is in the yellow area
.
In order to continue to stabilize the supply of pork market, a number of provinces and cities have recently announced the release of frozen pork reserves:
On November 11, Tianjin announced the start of the frozen pork reserve release, which will last until November 25, with a retail price of 15.
23 yuan/kg
.
On November 14, the Hainan Development and Reform Commission announced that it will launch the provincial pork reserve in the near future, focusing on ensuring the demand
for New Year's Day, Spring Festival and tourist season.
Among them, at least one batch will be released in November, and further expansion will be made in December and January 2023
.
The Hainan Development and Reform Commission said that it will give priority to 500 tons of temporary reserve pork, and then determine the number
of the next batch according to the market reaction after the first batch of release.
In terms of put into price, the terminal sales price will be determined in accordance with the principle of "preserving capital and making small profits", and the terminal sales price will not be higher than the market price
.
On the same day, the Jiangxi Department of Commerce announced that the release of provincial reserve pork will be launched from November 16, with a scale of 600 tons and a sales price of 24.
2 yuan / kg, and will continue until January 31, 2023 (according to market sales, while sold out).
West China Securities Research Report believes that looking forward to the future market, pig prices will continue to adjust in a narrow range, and the peak season before the Spring Festival is expected to push up
.
;
;Pig price gains have fallen back to the secondary warning range
.
According to the official WeChat public account of the National Development and Reform Commission on November 15, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the week of November 7-11, the weekly average price increase of lean meat retail prices in 36 large and medium-sized cities narrowed from more than 40% year-on-year to between 30% and 40%, and the first-level warning range of excessive rise determined by the "Plan for Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Ensure Supply and Stabilize Prices in the Pork Market" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") fell back to the second-level warning range
.
Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, also said on the same day that from the perspective of pork supply, there is no basis
for a sharp rise in pork prices.
At present, pig production capacity and pig inventory remain generally stable, and pig production is at a reasonable level, which does not support a sharp increase
in pork prices.
for a sharp rise in pork prices.
At present, pig production capacity and pig inventory remain generally stable, and pig production is at a reasonable level, which does not support a sharp increase
in pork prices.
Pig prices fell for three consecutive weeks
Pig prices fell for three consecutive weeksIn June last year, the National Development and Reform Commission and other six departments jointly issued the "Plan", adding two new early warning indicators, "change rate of breeding sow inventory" and "average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities", and graded the early warning by delineating the warning range; And there are regular reserves and temporary reserves for regulation
.
According to the "Plan", only for the indicator of lean meat retail prices in 36 large and medium-sized cities, when the average price of the week increases between 30% and 40% year-on-year, a secondary warning will be issued; When the year-on-year increase exceeds 40%, a first-level warning
is issued.
The "Plan" stipulates that under the situation of cyclical fluctuations in the market, the reserve release will be initiated when the secondary warning of excessive rise is issued; Increase investment when Level 1 warnings are
issued.
West China Securities pointed out in a research report on November 13 that Zhuyitong data shows that the average price of pigs in the country has fallen
for three consecutive weeks.
Statistics from the wholesale market price information system of the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also show that since October 30, the national pig price has dropped significantly, and as of press time, the pig price is still stable at 29.
4 yuan / kg
.
The NDRC pointed out that the current pig price is still at a high level, and the next step will be to closely track the market price changes, and recommend that farms (households) maintain a normal rhythm of production and operation to prevent the risk of
market price fluctuations.
market price fluctuations.
The number of breeding sows has increased for five consecutive months
The number of breeding sows has increased for 5 consecutive monthsThe latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 15 showed that from January to October, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 2%
year-on-year.
In October, the CPI rose 2.
1% year-on-year, down 0.
7 percentage points from the previous month, and up 0.
1%
month-on-month.
Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, pointed out that affected by factors such as the pig production cycle and the reluctance of some farmers to sell at the pen, coupled with the low base in the same period of the previous year, pork prices rose by 51.
8% year-on-year, an increase of 15.
8 percentage points over the previous month, which was the main factor
pushing up the CPI.
Fu Linghui believes that from the perspective of pork supply, there is no basis
for a sharp rise in pork prices.
At present, pig production capacity and pig inventory remain generally stable, and pig production is at a reasonable level, which does not support a sharp increase
in pork prices.
for a sharp rise in pork prices.
At present, pig production capacity and pig inventory remain generally stable, and pig production is at a reasonable level, which does not support a sharp increase
in pork prices.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video scheduling meeting on pig production and supply on October 28, and the meeting pointed out that the current basic production capacity of pigs is stable, and the number of breeding sows, pigs, and newborn piglets have rebounded for more than five consecutive months, and it is expected that the number of pigs on the market will increase steadily in the next few months, ensuring that the pork market supply during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival has a solid foundation
.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, the number of breeding sows in China has reached 43.
62 million, equivalent to 106.
4% of the normal holdings, and the production capacity has increased significantly, which is in the yellow area
.
In order to continue to stabilize the supply of pork market, a number of provinces and cities have recently announced the release of frozen pork reserves:
In order to continue to stabilize the supply of pork market, a number of provinces and cities have recently announced the release of frozen pork reserves:On November 11, Tianjin announced the start of the frozen pork reserve release, which will last until November 25, with a retail price of 15.
23 yuan/kg
.
On November 14, the Hainan Development and Reform Commission announced that it will launch the provincial pork reserve in the near future, focusing on ensuring the demand
for New Year's Day, Spring Festival and tourist season.
Among them, at least one batch will be released in November, and further expansion will be made in December and January 2023
.
The Hainan Development and Reform Commission said that it will give priority to 500 tons of temporary reserve pork, and then determine the number
of the next batch according to the market reaction after the first batch of release.
In terms of put into price, the terminal sales price will be determined in accordance with the principle of "preserving capital and making small profits", and the terminal sales price will not be higher than the market price
.
On the same day, the Jiangxi Department of Commerce announced that the release of provincial reserve pork will be launched from November 16, with a scale of 600 tons and a sales price of 24.
2 yuan / kg, and will continue until January 31, 2023 (according to market sales, while sold out).
West China Securities Research Report believes that looking forward to the future market, pig prices will continue to adjust in a narrow range, and the peak season before the Spring Festival is expected to push up
.
