This year's purchase of new wheat is cautiously expected to recover slowly in the later stage

Introduction: At present, the purchase of new wheat has been carried out in various parts of the domestic market Based on the analysis of the purchase price and quantity, the average price of the purchase market started in the first ten days of June is about 0.7 yuan / Jin The purchase of new wheat into the market is blocked The purchase and sale activities of the food and agriculture industry and the operators are not active and the transaction is not prosperous The purchase market has not yet seen the scene of fierce competition and hot purchase The performance of farmers, enterprises and grain traders in the market Very careful I reasonable purchase price of local scalers: Based on the analysis of the purchase data in the past ten days, the purchase price of new wheat in different regions this year is reasonable in general, although there is no price expected to be achieved by the analysis of relevant departments in the early stage According to Jiangsu sampling test report, this year's new wheat bulk density is 820g / L at the highest, 735g / L at the lowest, with an average of 767g / L, and 745g / L last year, with a year-on-year increase of 22G / L, that is to say, a grade has been raised, the whole imperfect grain is within the standard, and the overall quality is good In addition, in the period of wheat harvest, several rainfalls, untimely drying of farmers, high natural water content of new grain on the market, and large impurities such as grass seeds and mechanical harvest wheat bran, so the opening price is not too high The price per kilogram of ordinary wheat purchased is between 1.38 yuan and 1.44 yuan, and that of high-quality wheat is between 1.46 yuan and 1.56 yuan From the perspective of the national market, the price of wheat purchase is reasonable at present 2 Current purchase market of Huanghuai Market: in terms of the purchase price of the current wheat market, The purchase price of Henan new wheat is between 0.67-0.71 yuan / Jin, Shandong new wheat is between 0.70-0.72 yuan / Jin, Jiangsu Anhui and Hubei wheat is between 0.70-0.73 yuan / Jin The detailed price is as follows: Anhui offer: as of June 12, Anhui grain department has purchased 201000 tons of wheat, up 19.6 tons from the same period of last year, up 39 times Among them, the purchase price of wheat in Jieshou City, Anhui Province is 1.36-1.40 yuan / kg; that in Dingyuan County, Anhui Province is 1.46-1.48 yuan / kg; that in Huaiyuan County, Anhui Province is 1.28-1.30 yuan / kg; that in Sixian County, Anhui Province is 1.40 yuan / kg; that in Mengcheng County, Anhui Province is 1.46 yuan / kg; that in Bozhou County, Anhui Province is 1.46 yuan / kg; that in Taitai County, Anhui Province is 1.46 yuan / kg The purchase price of wheat is 1.40 yuan / kg in Hexian County, 1.40 yuan / kg in Lingbi County, Anhui Province, 1.50 yuan / kg in Xiaoxian County, Anhui Province, 1.32-1.34 yuan / kg in Shouxian County, 1.42-1.46 yuan / kg in Funan County, Anhui Province, 1.30-1.40 yuan / kg in Shangying County, Anhui Province Henan production area: at present, the flour enterprises in South Henan are trying their best to purchase new wheat At present, most of the wheat quality entering the plant is grade 2 or above, with water content below 12,5 and purchase price between 7-7.2 Southern Hebei: local flour companies began to list for purchase Hebei wudeli's famous factory has put up the purchase price of new wheat: 1400 yuan / ton Some flour manufacturers in Handan and Xingtai also began to purchase between 1380 and 1400 The quality of new wheat in Hebei is very good this year, most of which are above level 2 The moisture content of wheat purchased by the factory is basically below the safe moisture content of 12.5, but the current purchase volume is not very large Jiangsu offer: the purchase price of Nanjing medium red wheat is 73 yuan per 50 kg, Yangzhou medium red wheat is 72 yuan per 50 kg, and Suzhou medium red wheat is 73-75 yuan per 50 kg In Taizhou area, the open scale purchase price of state-owned purchase and sale enterprises is basically about 70 yuan per 50 kg; the open scale purchase price of some small flour mills is about 72 yuan per 50 kg The quality of wheat purchased by Zhenjiang is good, with a unit weight of over 750 grams per litre and a purchase price of about 72-74 yuan per 100jin The price of Yancheng medium new red wheat is about 69.5-72 yuan per 100 Jin The purchase price of medium new white wheat is about 68.5-71 yuan per 100jin Huai'an medium white wheat purchase price is about 69-71 yuan per 100 Jin In Lianyungang, the purchase price of medium-sized red wheat is about 69-71 yuan per 100jin; the purchase price of medium-sized white wheat is about 67-70 yuan per 100jin The sporadic price of medium-sized common white wheat in Suqian's purchasing and marketing enterprises is about 68 yuan per 100jin The purchase price of ordinary white wheat in Xuzhou is about 68-71 yuan per 100 Jin Third, the analysis of the reasons for the sluggish market transactions From the analysis of the situation of new wheat purchase in various regions, farmers, enterprises and grain traders are extremely cautious in entering the market The main reasons are as follows: first, it is the busy season of summer planting and summer management for farmers, who can't afford to sell grain Second, this year's agricultural tax will be reduced, surcharges will be cancelled, spring sowing subsidies and direct subsidy funds will be put in place, and farmers' burden will be reduced, and they will no longer simply rely on grain sales for tax payment Third, the price of grain rose in the fourth quarter of last year, which made the farmers who sold new grain early feel that they have suffered losses Now they have the idea of selling at a price Fourth, in recent years, wheat production has been reduced continuously, family reserves need to be supplemented, and they are reluctant to sell Therefore, most of the farmers feel that the current price is not ideal, and they are not eager to sell new wheat when they are well-off There is a general mentality of waiting on the grain From the situation of grain traders' purchase: first, they are not sure about the market situation This year, the opening price of each kilogram of wheat is about 0.30 yuan higher than that of the same period last year, and there is no bottom in how much profit space there is in the later stage Second, the business mode of selling while collecting was blocked, and the car was overloaded and the freight rate was high; the railway transportation was tight and it was difficult to get to the car Third, there is a large stock of old grains in the processing enterprises in other places In addition, the current flour price is falling, and the flour retail market is in a seasonal off-season, with small trading volume Many flour workshops of manufacturers are in a semi-stop state The fall of wheat price also makes the grain users wait and see when purchasing new wheat, and there is little real investment or entrusted purchase Fourth, the funds of individual grain merchants are limited, and they dare not purchase large quantities if they can't walk away without sites and storage conditions Flour prices are also falling From the perspective of state-owned enterprises: first, the state-owned grain purchase and sale enterprises have the experience of opening up the purchase market in an all-round way, learning the operation mode of individual grain merchants, improving their ability to deal with the market, and insisting on rational purchase with benefits Second, the state-owned enterprises have the advantages of capital, site, warehouse and information, and the ability to adapt to the changes in the market, which is beyond the capabilities of other grain traders Third, continue to improve the way of acquisition, grasp the dominant power of acquisition, guide the acquisition price, and guide the market At the same time, we should firmly establish the idea of open acquisition, anytime acquisition and perennial acquisition Fourth, this year, the purchasing market of summer grain and wheat in China has been fully liberalized, and the control of the agricultural issuance system over the issuance of loans for purchasing funds has been significantly strengthened compared with the past Some grass-roots grain departments have been preparing to reduce the number of purchases due to lack of purchasing funds IV prediction of purchase price of new wheat in the later stage: since the beginning of the acquisition, the purchase price of new wheat has been rising from 0.68 yuan / Jin After the middle of the year, the average market price has exceeded 0.70 yuan / Jin, which is very close to the target price of 0.75 yuan / Jin predicted in the earlier stage If all kinds of acquirers compete fiercely, the price is still difficult to stabilize In order to compete for grain resources, all kinds of acquirers will further push the purchase price higher The price in the later stage of the purchase may reach about 0.80 yuan / Jin Compared with last year, the main reasons are as follows: first, the high purchase price of orders has driven up the market price, many state-owned enterprises have realized the high quality and good price, the price of high-quality wheat is 5% to 10% higher than that of ordinary wheat, and the price of high-quality wheat is obviously higher than that of ordinary wheat according to the current price comparison of new wheat Second, this year's market price is relatively high, laying a foundation for later price increases When summer grain was purchased last year, the grain market was in a weak state and the grain price was at a historical low After two sharp price increases in November last year and March this year, the grain price has entered a higher price range during the purchase of summer grain this year The third is the change of enterprise's expectation on the market, which indicates that there is still room for price improvement in the later period During the purchase of last summer's grain, enterprises were generally cautious about market expectations, believing that there was limited space for grain prices to rise, and they looked down on the future market This year's situation is different Although the price of grain has risen sharply and entered a higher price area, most enterprises are still optimistic about the future market and think that there is still some room for the price of grain to rise Fourth, the strength of enterprises participating in market competition has changed In last year's purchase of summer grain, most of the enterprises were cautious in their purchase After the sharp rise of grain price in the second half of last year, all the enterprises with grain realized their ideal profits If they have grain, they will have money If they have more grain, they will have more profits This has become the consensus of the enterprises The enterprises have tasted the sweetness of competing for grain and strengthened their ability to resist risks In this year's summer grain purchase, the leading processing enterprises, large grain distributors, purchase and sale enterprises and other purchase subjects will change the cautious management style of last year, boldly intervene in the market, fully participate in the competition, and actively strive for the source of grain At this time, there will be fierce competition and hot acquisition in the market, which will cause the price to rise