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In the first half of 2021, when the epidemic is normalized, the global drug competition landscape has also quietly changed
.
Humile’s "drug king" throne may not be guaranteed.
And each new generation of blockbuster products are "savage growth
.
" Johnson & Johnson has a rich product pipeline.
Nowadays, the new crown epidemic is escalating again, and mutant strains have begun to ravage the world.
In addition to the old brands of Xiu Mei Le, lenalidomide, and K drugs, what other products are expected to become super blockbusters by the end of 2021? Who will be the next blockbuster among the newly approved new drugs?
01 The new crown vaccine may become the best-selling drug in history
01 The new crown vaccine may become the best-selling drug in historyJudging from the sales in the first half of 2021, if calculated according to the double method, 7 of the TOP10 multinational pharmaceutical companies are expected to become super blockbusters by the end of the year, including the long-term dominance of Xiu Meile, K drugs, lenalidomide, etc.
, also include the new crown vaccine jointly developed by Pfizer and BioNTech
.
It is expected to become a super blockbuster product by the end of the year
Unlike in the past, the top spot is no longer Xiumile.
The dark horse new crown vaccine exceeded 10 billion in the first half of 2021, winning the championship with 11.
3 billion US dollars
.
As the new crown virus makes a comeback with the delta mutant strain, another wave of unsettled vaccination fever around the world, Pfizer is also continuously raising its vaccine sales forecasts to US$15 billion and US$26 billion.
In addition, Moderna, another mRNA vaccine company, also raised its forecast.
The price of vaccines rose by 10% to US$25.
5 per dose.
In January, its estimated annual vaccine sales of US$18.
4 billion was also raised to more than US$20 billion
.
The global epidemic is also escalating.
According to a report jointly issued by the WHO and the European Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 23, from June 28 to July 11, 28 new coronaviruses were completed in two weeks.
Among the countries where the gene was sequenced, the delta strain became the main spreading new crown variant in 19 of them
.
Previously, the CEO of Pfizer publicly stated that it is developing enhanced needles.
Another strong growth product worthy of attention is ibrutinib, a joint venture between Johnson & Johnson and AbbVie, with sales of US$4.
89 billion in the first half of the year.
As the world’s first BTK inhibitor to be marketed, it has the most first-mover advantage.
Monopolize the market, with sales of 9.
4 billion U.
S.
dollars in 2020.
According to the current growth rate of more than 10%, it is expected to become a super blockbuster of tens of billions of dollars in 2021
.
Janssen's products are a win-win situation in terms of sales and growth.
Ibrutinib is only one of them.
Usnumab also made sales of US$4.
422 billion, with a sales growth rate of 25.
8%
.
Usinuzumab is a fully human monoclonal antibody that targets the p40 subunit shared by IL-12 and IL-23.
It is the world's first organism that can selectively target both interleukins IL-12 and IL-23.
Medicine
.
The indications mainly focus on autoimmune diseases such as psoriasis and Crohn's disease
With the current growth trend, uznumab will most likely become a super blockbuster in the field of autoimmunity with another 10 billion U.
S.
dollars in sales, but at the same time it also faces the risk of competition from biosimilar drugs.
FiercePharma predicts that uzumumab The key patent expiration time of Numab is 2025-2026
.
In China alone, Huadong Medicine and Biotec’s Uselumumab biosimilars have entered clinical phase III
In addition, Dupixent, a partnership between Sanofi and Regeneron, has always been high expectations in the industry.
It was approved for listing in 2017 and sold 20.
74 euros in sales in 2019.
Sanofi CEO Paul Hudson once announced the competition in December 2019.
Nofi’s "All-Out Win" development strategy has detailed plans for Sanofi’s development ambitions for the next six years and the path to success.
Dupixent is one of its core growth drivers.
Paul Hudson bluntly stated that its sales will exceed 10 billion euros
.
EvaluatePharma predicts that Dupixent will become the world's second best-selling anti-inflammatory drug after Aber Repair Merlot in 2024, with sales reaching 8.
It is reported that Dupixent is the first biologic for the treatment of atopic dermatitis approved for marketing in the United States, and is currently the only drug on the market that targets IL-4R.
The patient population has gradually expanded from adults to children aged 6 to 11, and currently there are 6 The clinical trials for infants and young children between the ages of months to 5 years have reached clinical phase III
.
According to public data, there are approximately 1.
7 million adults with atopic dermatitis in the United States who are eligible for biological treatment indications, 400,000 adolescents aged 12-17, and 90,000 children aged 6-11.
Dupixent is in this part of the population.
The penetration rate in the medium is less than 5%, which has a very large room for expansion
.
On the other hand, Dupixent's indications are not only atopic dermatitis, but asthma and chronic rhinitis have also been approved.
In the future, Sanofi plans to expand the search for new indications such as measles and esophagitis, and target patients in the United States.
Nearly 5 million people
.
Sanofi believes that it has advantages in efficacy and safety compared to other targeted therapies and immunosuppressants, and will become a leader in the type 2 inflammatory disease drug market
02 Many new drugs "grow barbarously"
02 Many new drugs "grow barbarously"In addition to the blockbuster drugs with strong performance, in the first half of this year, many companies still emerged many star drugs with a growth rate of over 30%
.
Johnson & Johnson, which has a rich product pipeline, has three star products whose growth rate exceeds 30%
.
For example, Erleada (apatamide) even increased by 80%
.
Erleada (apatamide) is the first drug approved by the FDA in 2018 for the treatment of non-metastatic castration resistance to prostate cancer.
The sales volume in the first half of 2021 was US$563 million, an increase of more than 80%
.
Erleada is the first nmCRPC treatment plan approved in China
.
In September 2019, Erleada received accelerated approval for the treatment of adult patients with non-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (nmCRPC) at high risk of metastasis
.
In May 2019, CDE included Erleada (apatamide) in the second batch of clinically urgently needed overseas new drugs
.
In addition, the CD38 monoclonal antibody drug Darzalex (Daratumumab) sales reached 2.
8 billion U.
S.
dollars, a growth rate of over 50%
.
Darzalex intravenous injection was approved by the FDA in November 2015
.
It was approved for import in China in July 2019
.
The product has already begun to actively reduce prices in China
.
On July 27, information from the centralized procurement platform for medicines and medical consumables in Liaoning Province showed that the 100mg/5ml daratumumab injection was reduced from 5460 yuan to 2358 yuan, and the 400mg/20ml specification was reduced from 19710 yuan to 8512.
4 yuan, a decrease.
Reached 56.
81%
.
In addition, Tremfya (Gusecchi Yumab), which treats psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis, still maintains a growth rate of 40.
6%, with sales reaching 897 million US dollars
.
In 2020, the sales of Gusecchi Yumab will reach 1.
35 billion U.
S.
dollars, with a growth rate of 33%
.
Gusekizumab injection is the world's first anti-human interleukin-23 (IL-23) monoclonal antibody approved for the treatment of psoriasis
.
This variety was included in the country's first batch of clinically needed overseas new drugs list, and the import registration application was obtained at the end of 2019
.
Novartis' 2020H1 sales growth rate of more than 30% of the drug also has a variety of drugs
.
Novartis' new heart failure drug Entresto (sacubatril and valsartan) had sales of US$1.
675 billion in the first half of the year, an increase of 46%
.
Entresto's 2020 global sales performance was US$2.
497 billion, an increase of 45% year-on-year, making it the fastest-growing drug among Novartis’s listed products
.
Entresto is regarded by the outside world as the core product of Novartis’s successor to Gleevec, and its peak annual sales are predicted to exceed US$5 billion
.
It is understood that Entresto entered the U.
S.
and European markets in 2015.
In 2017, Entresto entered the Chinese market for the treatment of heart failure.
In June this year, Entresto was approved by the State Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of essential hypertension.
It is also the first country to approve Entresto's hypertension indication
.
The drug has been included in the National Medical Insurance Catalogue.
Due to the significant increase in volume after entering the medical insurance, the product will increase by 200% in the Chinese market in 2020.
In the first quarter of 2021, Entresto's global sales were US$789 million, a year-on-year increase of 39%
.
However, this drug is undergoing a "patent siege
.
" Recently, the website of the State Intellectual Property Office announced three patent invalidation decisions, regarding the "angiotensin receptor antagonist and NEP inhibitor drugs" initiated by Xinlitai, CSPC Ouyi, and Nanjing Zhengda Tianqing on Novartis Entresto's core patents.
The “combined product” challenge made the decision of “partially invalid patent”
.
Two other Novartis drugs with sales growth rates of over 30% are the highly-regarded gene therapy Zolgensma.
Sales in the first half of 2021 ($634 million) increased by nearly 70% year-on-year
.
There is also Kisqali (ribociclib), an oral breast cancer CDK4/6 inhibitor approved by the FDA in 2018, and its sales reached 420 million US dollars in the first half of the year, an increase of 31%
.
Among the TOP10 products sold by AstraZeneca in the first half of the year, there were three important drugs with a growth rate of more than 30%, namely: the hypoglycemic drug Farxiga (daggliflozin), with sales of 1.
359 billion US dollars in the first half of the year, a growth rate of 60%; PARP, jointly developed with Merck, inhibited Lynparza (Olapali) from growing by 34% in the first half of the year, with sales reaching 1.
1 billion U.
S.
dollars; Benalizumab, with sales of 580 million U.
S.
dollars in the first half, with a growth rate of 36%
.
It is worth mentioning that AstraZeneca’s acatinib (Calquence), as the second approved BTK inhibitor in the world, sales of the drug in 2021H1 increased by 150% year-on-year to US$490 million, of which sales in the US market Reached 445 million US dollars
.
And Sanofi, which is expected to hit the blockbuster Dupixent, performed well.
In the first half of the year, sales achieved a growth rate of 51%, and sales revenue reached 2.
29 billion euros (approximately US$2.
723 billion)
.
Dupixent is Sanofi’s highest sales product in 2020, reaching 3.
534 billion euros (4.
033 billion US dollars, an increase of 70.
4%) in the fourth year of listing
.
Roche desperately needs the "new troika" relay, its Hemlibra (Iimerizumab) growth rate in the first half of the year was 45%, and sales reached 1.
393 billion Swiss francs
.
In 2020, Hemlibra's global sales reached 2.
19 billion Swiss francs, making it the first bispecific antibody drug with sales to enter the global TOP100
.
In November 2017, Hemlibra's first bleeding prevention treatment for the treatment of hemophilia A containing factor VIII inhibitors was approved by the FDA for marketing
.
In April 2018, with the approval of Hemlibra's second indication, that is, the preventive treatment of hemophilia A without factor VIII inhibitors, it marked that Hemlibra can be used to treat all hemophilia A, and the scope of medication has been greatly increased
.
The product was approved in China at the end of 2018
.
In addition, its PD-L1 monoclonal antibody Tecentriq (atelizumab) was approved based on the three major indications of 1-line small cell lung cancer, 1-line triple-negative breast cancer, and 1-line hepatocellular carcinoma, with sales of 1.
599 billion in the first half of the year.
The Swiss franc rose by 29%
.