Thinking about soybean market after the introduction of "genetically modified rules"

Introduction: after six months of continuous decline, Dalian soybean in the first trading day of 2002, there was a long-standing market rally In the trading on Monday, before the market was closed at noon, the whole line was closed until the afternoon The reason for the soaring market is that, on the one hand, the U.S market first suppressed and then raised during the festival, creating a new low to give people signs of stability; on the other hand, the detailed rules for genetically modified crops, which has been in a hazy state in the early stage, have been officially released recently It can be said that the announcement made by the Ministry of agriculture on Monday in the farmer's Daily has a strong impact on the depressed soybean in Dalian Irritant effect But for today's soybean market in Dalian, the author is not optimistic about it for a long time, and may form a periodic bottom to launch a rebound market However, under the constraints of still negative fundamentals, the change of soybean trend still needs time I The spirit of the detailed rules does not refuse to import It is just to add the safety inspection procedure, the genetically modified detailed rules, which stipulates that overseas companies exporting agricultural products to China must obtain a safety certificate from the Ministry of agriculture to confirm that these products are harmless to people, animals and the environment In addition, the certificate must have been obtained before the contract was signed All imported GM soybeans, corn, rapeseed, cottonseed and tomatoes must be clearly identified as GM products After studying the detailed rules, the basic spirit of the detailed rules is not to refuse to import, but to conduct more perfect and detailed inspection and quarantine for the sake of safety Based on this point, the author believes that since the implementation of the GM rules on March 20, there will be a slowdown in the import of soybeans in 2002, but the slowdown does not mean that the number will decrease compared with this year As we all know, the introduction and fact of the genetically modified management regulations from June to September last year once stopped the import of soybeans from the United States On the contrary, this year, after the emergence of the GM rules, it is likely that the imported soybean will act in accordance with the regulations, and everything will be in order Therefore, after the analysis of the GM rules, we believe that the introduction of the rules is as expected in the early stage, and there is no substantive restriction on the imported soybean containing GM ingredients Therefore, whether this rule can form long-term favorable effect on the period price deserves the attention of the market Although judging from the strong trading limit of a single trading day, although the market characteristics of Liandou have the potential to turn, we can't find a reason to do long-term long-term business if we calm down and analyze from the fundamental point of view First of all, although the domestic soybean rose to a certain extent during the new year's day, the strength was limited and the range was not considerable The average price in the production area was still around 1750 yuan / ton After a week of new year's long holiday, Dalian soybean market rose sharply under the influence of the U.S market's low recovery during the festival The main reason is that the market saw signs of U.S market's stabilization But this stabilization is based on the background of creating a new low in history, and the trend pattern is still empty According to CBOT's long-term trend analysis, last week, when several contracts were approaching historical lows at the same time, sbcf in January fell to 415.4 cents, slightly higher than the lowest 415 cents in July 1999, while the March contract reached a new low, breaking the 423 cents in July 1999 with 415 cents During the new year's Day holiday, CBOT set a new low, recovered again after gaining support, forming support for the first transaction of Liandou in 2002 Second, the harvest of South American soybean market is coming The impact of devaluation of Argentine currency on the price seems not optimistic from the current international market situation The international market focus is mainly on the South American soybean production areas According to the latest Buenos Aires news, Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture said that as of December 28, Argentina's soybean planting area had accounted for 89% of the estimated 11.3 million acres According to a weekly report released by Argentina's Ministry of agriculture, the soybean planting area to date is 10.09 million hectares Brazil's 2001-2002 soybean harvest began this week in the north of matcrosso, where traders say 20000 hectares have been harvested Good weather conditions throughout the summer, moderate rainfall makes the growth of crops in the production area present a quite good situation As the second largest soybean production and export country in the world, marlet, a famous organization, estimates that Brazil's soybean production in 2001-2002 will be 41 million-43 million tons, higher than the 38 million tons of the previous year The negative effect of this increase is quite obvious Argentina's finance minister announced Thursday that the Argentine government will set the exchange rate between the Argentine peso and the US dollar at 1.40-1 This is undoubtedly a big news for the world grain market First of all, after the devaluation of the currency by 40%, if the Argentine soybean priced in US dollar is converted into peso, the price will rise by 40% This will stimulate farmers to reduce the price and promote the soybean, which will increase the competitiveness of Argentine soybean in the world market, and undoubtedly constitute a negative impact on American soybean In this sense, Argentina is equal to completing the devaluation of Brazil's real over the past year in just one day It can be said that the benefit of currency depreciation to Argentina's soybean export is long-term, but in the short term, it will have a strong impact on soybean prices The new low of CBOT at the beginning of the year fully reflects the weakness of the current international market After the rebound of technology, it is still possible to continue to create a new low Through the above comprehensive domestic and international soybean market analysis and research, the author thinks that for today's soybean inflation, from the perspective of trend analysis, there is no condition to turn the trend But even so, in the face of the explosive rise of the market, investors still need to pay attention to controlling the market risk At present, after nearly half a year's continuous decline, Dalian soybean can use the announcement of the "genetically modified rules" to pull up a wave of market, which is only a rebound in a downward trend or Dalian soybean has turned The author's personal view is more inclined to the former, Only from the single trading day's pull up, we can't confirm the blind confirmation of the trend, after all, the macro fundamentals of the bad are like a sword hanging high above the head, restricting the development of the market (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: