There will be three major changes in the grain, cotton and oil market next year

Introduction: in the previous period, the price of grain, cotton and edible oil fluctuated in the domestic market Experts and industry analysts believe that next year, there will be three major changes in the grain, cotton and oil market First of all, the reduction of grain and cotton production will be curbed and the market supply will increase Han Jun, director of the Rural Research Department of the development research center of the State Council, believes that under the condition of the grain price falling for six years in a row, the recovery of the market grain price gives farmers suffering from the "grain price hurting farmers" the opportunity to increase their income, increase their enthusiasm for grain production, and promote the continuous warming of the grain industry Recently, a reporter from DCQ found that farmers are enthusiastic about grain production Some of the farmers surveyed said they were ready to expand their planting scale next year as food prices picked up The farmers who turned to vegetable production and breeding due to the low price of grain also plan to carry out grain production again At the same time, many farmers also see the hope of cotton planting, are busy seeking technical guidance of the planting industry, apply for agricultural credit funds According to the prediction of relevant experts, from the first half of 2004, the market supply of grain and cotton will show a slight increase trend If the price of grain and cotton rises again during this period, it is estimated that the grain and cotton output in 2004 will continue to expand, greatly making up for the current shortage of supply and demand in the grain and cotton flower market Second, the dynamic information of grain and cotton market will be more transparent, more timely and accurate Song Guoqing, a professor at the China Economic Research Center of Peking University, believes that China's grain price fluctuations are related to the opacity of grain import and export information For a long time, China's grain inventory data is confidential, which makes it impossible for the outside world to know the real supply and demand situation of China's market, and the procurement in the international market has become the only reference information Once Chinese buyers appear, large international grain producers will join hands to bid up prices, which naturally leads to the spread of price rise This year, the international agricultural products are in poor harvest and the prices are rising, which directly affects China's domestic grain prices DCQ Song Guoqing proposed that grain is a strategic material in every country, but fundamentally speaking, grain trade is a business transaction The rules of the game in the global market are not confidentiality, but providing enough transparent information to maintain communication The price fluctuation of grain and cotton and other agricultural products made relevant organizations and insiders realize the importance of market information, and it is expected that the dynamic information of grain and cotton market will be more transparent in the future In addition to DCQ, some experts believe that another main reason for the price fluctuation of grain, cotton and oil is that domestic consumers and purchasers can not grasp the market information in time, resulting in the situation of rush buying, which also expanded the price rise to a certain extent After this price increase, the price forecast in the grain, cotton and oil market will be more rational next year, and the market dynamic information forecast system will be more mature Third, the industrial structure related to grain, cotton and oil will be further adjusted and the operation mechanism of the enterprise will be optimized Experts from the information center of the Ministry of agriculture pointed out that from next year, the adjustment of relevant industrial structure will mainly be reflected in the gradual coordination of the means of production of grain, oil and cotton with the production capacity of the corresponding enterprises At present, the crushing production capacity of edible oil processing enterprises in China is far greater than the supply capacity of raw materials Oil companies rush to buy raw materials, resulting in high prices of raw materials and grains Due to the rising price of raw materials and grain, some small and medium-sized oil enterprises will withdraw from the market and achieve a balance in the grain and oil market A few years ago, China's cotton textile industry was in a period of high-speed growth According to statistics, the number of spindles available in the country increased by more than 50% compared with that in 1998 when the state limited the production of spindles About 10% to 30% of the new textile production capacity uses outdated or obsolete equipment The sharp rise of cotton price also curbed the disorderly situation of low-level overcapacity and vicious competition in China's textile industry to a certain extent DCQ also pointed out that after this price fluctuation, it will optimize the operation mechanism of the retail industry of grain, cotton and oil As the prices of grain, oil and cotton have been falling in the past few years, the cost of buying futures for dealers is often higher than the price of spot trading in the market, and there are many fewer enterprises buying futures in recent two years Without the risk guarantee of futures, the price fluctuation brings great pressure to the enterprise management Therefore, dealers who have experienced this price change will pay more attention to the establishment of an operation mechanism to balance the purchase cost by purchasing futures DCQ