There is still room for domestic soybean meal price to rise in the short term

Introduction: since the end of July, the price of domestic soybean meal has risen sharply again The recent favorable factors of soybean meal Market: 29t 1 The price of imported soybean remains at a high level Due to the sharp rise of soybean prices in CBOT market, it is expected that the number of imported soybean arrivals in August may be reduced, which will make the already tense soybean supply even more tense In recent years, the price of soybeans in the foreign market has been rising steadily On July 18, the price of CBOT soybeans futures in the United States closed at $5.77/bushel in August On July 19, the price of soybeans from the United States to China rose to about $256 / ton The price of soybeans from South America to China also rose to $250 / ton In the later period, it is inevitable that the cost of soybeans import will rise, which will undoubtedly continue to increase domestic oil Soybean meal cost of the plant 29t 2 The domestic soybean meal stock is less As a result of early analysis, a large number of imported soybeans will arrive in June, so oil and feed factories all over the country operate cautiously, with less inventory In addition, at present, it has reached the summer maintenance season, some oil plants are in the state of shutdown and less supply, which makes the phenomenon of soybean meal shortage more prominent during this period 29t 3 The import of soybean decreased significantly After entering August, it is more difficult to grasp the price trend of domestic soybean meal, because it is close to the harvest period of domestic soybean, China is more cautious in purchasing the soybean arrived in August, and the arrival quantity of imported soybean in August will play a key role in the price of soybean meal 29t according to the follow-up survey of South American port shipment, at present, 11 ships of South American soybeans have been shipped, with a total of 550000 tons In addition to the 5-6 South American soybeans purchased at the end of July and 1-2 American soybeans purchased at the end of July, it is estimated that the number of imported soybeans in August will be about 800000 tons, which will be significantly lower than the 1.7 million tons in July The number of imported soybeans in May is difficult to meet the domestic demand, so it is difficult to change the strong price of domestic soybean meal 29t4 Market demand drives prices up In the previous period, the domestic breeding industry declined greatly, the price of meat continued to fall, and the farms basically operated at a loss In July, the market meat began to rise In most areas, pork rose 5% - 10% compared with that in May, which led to the rise of pig price, stimulated the development of breeding industry again, and increased the demand for feed and soybean meal to a certain extent The soybean meal supply of some oil plants in Jiangsu and Shandong has been in hot sale in varying degrees, and the spot soybean meal supply of some oil plants has been insufficient 29t to sum up, it is expected that domestic soybean meal prices will continue to rise in the short term It is expected that after September, with the harvest of domestic soybeans, the price of domestic soybean meal will probably have a certain degree of correction 29t