There is neither a shortage of pigs nor meat. Should the price of pigs fall should be misjudged by the trend?

 　　If the price of pigs in 2020 is booming, the price of pigs in 2021 can be described as "declining"
.
Industry insiders pointed out that in addition to the recovery of live pig production capacity, at the beginning of the year, practitioners were blindly optimistic and misjudged that the price of pigs would still be at a high level to carry out production plans such as raising pigs, which is also one of the contributing factors to the current decline in pig prices
.
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　　When the price of pigs has fallen below the cost price and the pig industry is facing losses, the breeding entities have gradually returned to rationality and exchanged quality for quantity by eliminating low-yielding sows in order to smoothly tide over the trough
.
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　　Misjudged that the price of pigs has acceleratedJa2 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In the first half of 2021, China's pig prices have entered a downward range
.
According to data from the key agricultural product market information platform of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on June 28, from January to June 2021, the wholesale transaction price of white striped pork fell from 46.
71 yuan/kg to 24.
62 yuan/kg
.
At the same time, in the 24th week of 2021, the ex-factory price of lean white striped pork fell 8.
9% month-on-month to 18.
83 yuan/kg, down 58.
1% year-on-year
.
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Ja2 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told the Beijing News that the current pig price has fallen below the cost price, and "neither pig nor meat" is the main reason for the drop in pig prices in the first half of 2021.
One
.
Starting from February 2020, live pig production capacity has continued to recover.
By April and May 2021, the slaughter volume of designated slaughter companies in China has increased by more than 40% year-on-year
.
In the first half of 2021, the weight of live pigs for slaughter in China has increased by about 3% compared with the same period last year, which is the highest level in history
.
Coupled with imported pork and the backlog of frozen products affected by the epidemic prevention and control in 2020, the supply of pork on the market is sufficient
.
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　　Zhu Zengyong believes that part of the reason for the large and heavy pigs on the market is that the price of pork once rose to 36 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival this year, giving many farmers the illusion that the supply of pork in the market is still tight
.
In addition, from December 2020 to February 2021, news of animal epidemics in some northern areas also misled some enterprises and small and medium-sized farmers
.
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　　Shi Shouding, deputy director of the Pig Industry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association, told reporters from the Beijing News that due to some exaggerated reports, many industry practitioners had misjudgments at the time and were extremely optimistic about the pig price in the future.
They were fattened and raised in slats in March and April The majority of big pigs have led to the current concentration of slaughter, which has accelerated the decline in pig prices during the down cycle
.
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　　Zhu Zengyong pointed out that, in fact, the epidemic is only a partial change and has not affected the whole country
.
One of the main reasons for the price rebound at that time was that the circulation of frozen products was blocked due to the background of the epidemic, and consumers' demand for cold fresh meat increased, so the rebound rate exceeded the seasonal increase in the original market supply and demand
.
However, many breeding entities have not seen the nature of the rebound in pig prices.
Although the possibility of misjudging that pork prices will continue to rise in 2021 is small, they will remain at a high level throughout the year.
It was not until May that they realized the actual supply and demand situation and adjusted production capacity
.
It can be seen that the breeding subjects still have to trust the official data more than the gossip
.
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　　In addition, from the consumer side, the purchase of pork by consumers has not changed significantly due to the decline in prices
.
From 2019 to 2020, pork prices continue to rise, which has a depressing effect on pork consumption
.
In 2021, pork prices continued to decline, falling below 13 yuan per catty in June
.
Under this circumstance, although the domestic pork consumption level in 2021 will be higher than that in 2020, it will still drop by 20-30% compared with 2017 and 2018
.
The main reason is that people's living standards have improved in recent years and they have paid more attention to the healthy diet structure.
Due to the obvious substitution effect of poultry, beef and other meats and the continuous increase in supply, consumers' demand for active choice of pork has declined
.
Ja2 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Speeding up the elimination of low-yielding sows becomes the keyJa2 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In order to reduce the negative impact of pig prices on the industry, on June 18, the China Animal Husbandry Association issued a proposal to "speed up the transformation and upgrading of all pig breeding enterprises, and implement cost-saving and efficiency-increasing measures", calling for pig farmers to work in the industry.
The producer arranges production rationally
.
An investigation by the China Animal Husbandry Association found that due to the downturn in the live pig market, some breeders have relaxed their feeding management, their feeding standards have fallen, and they have fed less feed during the slaughter stage
.
The proposal pointed out that the above behaviors often trigger stress responses in pigs and make the epidemic enter the disease.
It is recommended that all pig breeding companies should pay more attention to feeding and management under hot weather, and continue to place epidemic prevention and control in a prominent position to prevent pigs from responding.
Excitation caused the epidemic
.
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　　The initiative also mentioned that “the loss of pig farming in May 2021 is 9.
7%.
Some excellent farms can control the cost within 6 yuan/jin, indicating that they can make money even when the market is bad
.
” It is recommended that all pig farming is profitable .
Enterprises are speeding up the elimination of low-yielding sows, especially the ternary fat pigs reserved for breeding, to improve the reproductive efficiency of sows, increase the feed conversion rate, and enhance competitiveness
.
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　　Regarding the significance of phasing out low-yielding sows and retaining ternary fat pigs for breeding, Shi Shouding told a reporter from the Beijing News that when the price of pigs was high in the early stage but the sows were insufficient, the temporary measures adopted by many companies were to use some ternary sows.
Pigs or binary sows backcrossed between ternary sows and purebred sows are replaced.
The production efficiency of such sows is significantly lower than that of normal binary sows, which increases production costs
.
Under the downward trend of pig prices, the quality of breeding pigs must be improved as soon as possible to reduce the cost
.
In addition to phasing out low-yielding sows, large-scale enterprises should also use high-efficiency sows when the new plant is put into production, and the number of sows should be determined by the current market.
Try not to blindly expand, and decide according to their own capacity
.
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　　A reporter from the Beijing News noted that among large-scale pig companies, such as Zhengbang Technology and New Hope, have taken the lead in replacing sows with quality
.
In June 2021, New Hope responded to investors’ questions, stating that Sanyuan can breed sows have already been eliminated in the first quarter, and the overall number of eliminations in the second quarter will be much less than that in the first quarter
.
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　　In May 2021, Zhengbang Technology disclosed to investors that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the company was the first to eliminate 450,000 inefficient sows in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Although it has a certain impact on net profit, it can ensure that the company is lightly loaded and reaches The purpose of improving the quality of the population and reducing the cost of piglets
.
"From the perspective of current pig prices, the elimination measures taken ahead of the industry in the fourth quarter of last year are very wise
.
If eliminated at the current pig prices, the impact on the company will be even greater
.
" At present, Zhengbang Technology is low.
The elimination of high-efficiency sows has come to an end.
In the second quarter of 2021, only 50,000 heads and tails need to be eliminated.
After the elimination is completed, the entire population is high-efficiency sows
.
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　　Farmers are more cautiousJa2 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Looking back at the misjudgment made by the breeding subjects in this round, Shi Shouding said that in November 2020, the China Animal Husbandry Association publicly warned that the price of pigs might fall from 34 yuan/kg to 20 yuan/kg in the first half of 2021.
Pigs will be raised in the second half of 2021.
The industry may lose money
.
At present, due to the concentration of slaughter and weight gain, the loss comes ahead of schedule
.
When the pig price reached a peak of 36 yuan/kg on January 7, 2021, the association also mentioned through various channels that the supply of pork was tight in the short term, but the supply will gradually increase in the later period, and the price of pigs is still in a downward cycle
.
"Therefore, if farmers who are concerned about early warning take action in advance, serious losses can still be avoided
.
"Ja2 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In Shi Shouding's view, in the process of raising pigs, farmers should learn to have their own judgments.
Compared with gossip, they should read more national official data or data from authoritative organizations in the industry such as the China Animal Husbandry Association.
They should not listen to rumors.
, Arrange production normally and orderly, and do not bet on the market outlook
.
"However, after the pig price fell in the first half of the year, everyone's "gambling" mentality was significantly reduced during the business process.
Now many companies are carefully arranging production, gradually replacing low-efficiency sows, paying more attention to breeding, improving breeding efficiency, and reducing as much as possible.
Cost, stable production
.
"Ja2 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Will this round of pig price decline further accelerate industry concentration? Wen's shares have stated to the outside that based on the characteristics of previous pig cycles, in theory, those who can successfully cross the pig cycle are basically practitioners who have been dedicated and deeply plowing the pig industry for a long time
.
Under the pressure of de-capacity, new entrants in the period of high pig prices, because of the cost, technology, management, etc.
, first feel the pressure during the down period of the cycle, and may therefore exit during the low period
.
In Zhu Zengyong's view, the development of scale and industrialization is an inevitable trend for the world.
Every time the price of pigs fluctuates, a group of retail investors, small households, and enterprises who make mistakes will be eliminated by the market
.
Regardless of the size, the main body of aquaculture must adapt to the changes in industry and market-oriented needs, so that they have the ability to predict and prevent risks
.
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　　Pig prices may continue to fluctuateJa2 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　As for when the price of pigs that fell below the cost price will stop falling and rebound, Zhu Zengyong said that the current pig price is already at a low point, and there should not be a sharp drop again, and there has been a rebound in the past two days
.
From the perspective of market supply, the big pigs that were under slaughter in the early stage are gradually digested by the market.
If there is a rebound at the end of June, it is also in line with the law of development, but the rebound will not happen overnight, and it may usher in turbulence in the future
.
In the second half of 2021, the pig price situation will be better than in the second quarter, but it should be more seasonal
.
For example, the seasonal rebound before the National Day and the fall afterwards, the seasonal changes in December and New Year's Day, etc.
, are unlikely to have unexpected long-term rises
.
In the second half of the year, breeding should be able to return to the reasonable range of the market, that is, the profit level is about 10% of the entire cost level
.
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　　The Pig Industry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association also issued a document on June 22 stating that the pressure on the supply of live pigs may be relieved in the later stage, but it is still necessary to rationally arrange production and orderly slaughter
.
"Theoretically, the supply of live pigs will continue to decline after July 2021, and the year-on-year growth will gradually narrow.
The pressure of oversupply will gradually ease, and the price of live pigs may rebound weakly
.
"Ja2 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In this regard, Shi Shouding told the Beijing News that the recent slight increase in pig prices in some areas may be a sign of a phased rebound.
This rebound is a correction to the previous decline, but the height of the rebound is currently difficult to determine
.
"Farmers still need to adjust the breeding rhythm based on current data, and don't blindly predict it too optimistically or pessimistically
.
" During the low pig price, the association will continue to strengthen monitoring and early warning, prompting risks, providing scientific guidance for breeding subjects, and strengthening breeding technology.
Training, improve the level of breeding technology, and help reduce costs
.
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