There is certain inevitability for the price of grain and oil to rise

Introduction: in recent days, the sudden food and oil rush that almost swept the whole country has attracted a lot of people's attention From October 21, many residents began to rush to buy and hoard flour, rice and cooking oil Is today's rush to buy the wind a short-term irrational behavior, or is it a sign of long-term price rise? Some analysts at lyb pointed out that in fact, the rise of grain price started at the beginning of the year The successive years of grain production reduction have made the grain consumption lower than the production However, as we accumulated a large amount of inventory in 1995-1999, the grain price in the past few years has generally been lower This year, grain production continues to decrease At the same time, some economists estimate that grain stocks may be almost consumed, so China will enter a cycle of rising grain prices Lyb's reaction to the rise in edible oil prices was mainly due to the reduction of soybean production in China and the United States, which can be seen from the trend of soybean futures In the short term, there are "over adjustment" factors in the price rise of edible oil Lyb takes Jiangsu as an example At present, the market price of secondary soybean oil in Jiangsu has risen to 7200 yuan / ton, up 17% from the late last month Affected by this, the prices of refined oil have also increased significantly in recent days For example, some retail grain and oil stores in Nanjing have increased by about 50%, and the wholesale price has increased by 28.9% in just one month, which is rare in history Since food and soybean oil are basic raw materials, the rise of lyb is also reflected in the price of meat, eggs and other foods Therefore, the rise in food prices caused by the rise in grain and oil prices may be a sustained phenomenon, reflecting the overall trend of price recovery As for rush buying, it's short-term behavior In addition, according to the latest official forecast, the price of edible oil will remain high until March and April next year LYB