The yield of grain crops in autumn and the total yield of grain in 2004

Introduction: 1 Analysis of Agrometeorological conditions since spring 2004 Since spring sowing in, most of the main grain producing areas have good Agrometeorological conditions, timely precipitation, relatively small range of drought and light impact; high temperature, sufficient light and heat, most of the main grain producing areas have smooth spring sowing and summer planting; most of the crops grow well But in some areas, there are some disastrous weather, such as drought, low temperature and rainstorm, which have a certain impact on the growth and yield formation of local food crops The main favorable meteorological conditions are as follows: (1) the meteorological conditions in spring are better in the summer grain producing areas, and the yield and harvest are increased In the northern summer grain producing area, it is obviously warm in spring, which promotes the transformation of seedling situation; at the same time, in the key period of winter wheat yield formation in spring, there is obvious precipitation, which effectively alleviates the drought in the wheat area; the temperature changes are relatively stable at the end of spring and the beginning of summer, and there is no large-scale dry hot wind weather, which is conducive to the formation of winter wheat yield Most of the southern summer grain producing areas have suitable light and temperature in spring, and there is no continuous rainy weather in the later spring, which ensures the yield and harvest of winter wheat (2) the drought situation in southern early rice region was alleviated in time, and the light and temperature water in growing season were coordinated In addition to the low temperature and low light weather in early spring, the light and heat are sufficient in most of the growing season, which is conducive to the growth and development of early rice; the drought in most of the production areas before the planting of early rice is relieved, which makes the planting area of early rice increase significantly During the heading and flowering period of early rice, the weather of "dragon boat water" is lighter, which is beneficial to improve the seed setting rate, and most of the production areas have achieved good harvest (3) since spring, the temperature in most of the autumn crop areas has been on the high side, the drought has been alleviated in time, the spring sowing and summer planting have progressed smoothly, and the crops have grown well Since the middle of February, the temperature in most parts of the country has been on the high side, and the soil in the North has thawed earlier, which is conducive to spring cultivation and spring sowing; before and after the last ten days of April, the rain in most parts of the north will fall, which will alleviate the drought in time, which is conducive to the timely sowing and emergence of spring sowing crops In spring and summer, the light and heat are sufficient, the precipitation is suitable, the range of drought is small, the summer seed is progressing smoothly, and the crops grow well in most areas After April, the precipitation in southern rice region increased significantly, the drought in most areas was relieved, and the planting and transplanting of one season rice was smooth; at the same time, the light and temperature conditions were also conducive to the growth and development of one season rice and seedling raising of late rice The main adverse meteorological conditions (1) the drought lasted for a long time in the west of Northeast China and some parts of Inner Mongolia, and the crop growth in some areas was poor From spring to early summer, the precipitation in Heilongjiang, the west of Jilin and the northeast of Inner Mongolia is obviously less, and the drought is more serious, which seriously affects the sowing, emergence and growth of grain crops, and the growth trend of crops is obviously different (2) in some areas, there is a stage of low temperature weather, which has a bad impact on crop growth and development In the middle and last ten days of March, the weather of low temperature and low illumination appeared in Jiangnan and South China, and the phenomenon of rotten rice seedling appeared in some areas In the first and middle of May, there was frost in the east of Northwest China, which caused spring corn and other crops to be frozen, causing crop damage in some areas and having a certain impact on grain production In the first ten days of July, low temperature and low light appeared in most parts of Northeast China, which slowed down the growth of crops and increased the probability of suffering low temperature in the later period (3) severe convective weather in some areas affects the growth and development of food crops In spring, summer, strong convective weather such as rainstorm, rainstorm, gale, hail and so on appeared in Northeast, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, South China, southwest and so on, with short-term flood disaster in some areas; in the first ten days of July, No.7 strong tropical storm dandelion landed in the coastal area of Zhejiang Province, all of which had a certain impact on crop growth and development (4) high temperature weather occurs in some areas in midsummer, which affects the seed setting and filling of early rice and other crops From late June to early July, high temperature weather of 35-39 ℃ appeared in Jiangnan and South China, which was disadvantageous to early rice, corn and other crops heading, flowering and grouting (5) the temperature is high in winter, and the occurrence of diseases and insect pests is early Due to the obvious warm winter in most parts of the country and the large number of overwintering pathogens and eggs, some areas have suffered from diseases and insect pests such as sheath blight, borer and rice blast, which have different degrees of impact on crop growth and development 2 Analysis of social and economic factors: the national and local governments have issued a series of policies and measures to develop agriculture and support grain production In addition, the price of grain market has increased, which has generally increased farmers' enthusiasm for grain production At the same time, governments at all levels attach great importance to agricultural production, and the investment in agriculture has increased, which is very beneficial to the improvement of autumn grain and the total grain output throughout the year On the other hand, due to the increase of the area of high-quality varieties of grain crops in different regions, and the change of abandoned land into grain in some regions, to a certain extent, it restricts the increase of the average yield of autumn grain and the whole year grain 2 Production situation: it is predicted that the average yield per unit of autumn crops in 2004 will be the same as that in 2003, and the same as that in the past five years; the average yield per unit of grain crops in the whole year will be the same as that in 2003 and the last five years 3 Production suggestions 1 According to the forecast of the National Climate Center, the summer of 2004 (7-8) The rainy areas in the north will be located in the southeast of Northeast China, the east of North China and the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River to the west of Inner Mongolia; the rainy areas in the south are mainly located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the southeast of Southwest China and the East of South China Rainstorm and flood disasters may occur in some areas of the rainy areas, and all regions shall make preparations for flood control and drainage 2 The late management of early rice should be done well in southern double cropping rice area, and water should be used to regulate temperature to prevent high temperature hazards; meanwhile, mature early rice should be harvested in time, and late rice should be planted in time to strive for agricultural time and avoid losses caused by bad weather 3 In recent years, there are obvious low temperature and low light weather in Northeast China, which slows down the growth and development of crops In order to promote the growth of crops, measures such as dry land cultivation, paddy field shallow water irrigation and topdressing should be taken 4 At present, the soil moisture in some areas of northwest, North China, etc is different; the plum rainy season in the Yangtze River Basin has ended, so all regions should pay attention to water use planning to prevent the occurrence of summer drought 5 All localities should pay attention to monitoring the occurrence and spread trend of diseases and insect pests, and do a good job in disease and insect control to reduce the harm