The world's soybean meal supply is abundant in 2002 / 03

Introduction: the oil world expects the consumption growth of eight kinds of meal to be 5.8 million tons from 9 million tons this year From October 2002 to September 2003, we expect that the consumption of the world's eight major soybean meal will increase by only 5.8 million tons, compared with 9 million tons this year and 7.9 million tons last year In December 2000 and January 2001, Germany took the lead in banning the use of meat and bone meal, followed by the European Union as a whole In 2001 and the first half of 2002, many countries followed the example of the European Union Since 1996, the processing of meat and bone meal has been banned in some parts of the world, and the use of meat and bone meal in livestock breeding has been banned in some parts However, these bans are only limited to countries within the European Union where BSE occurs Meat and bone meal needs to be replaced by plant protein feed, such as oil meal, grain, feed soybean and pea The average protein content of meat and bone meal is 55%, that of plant feed is 52%, and that of grain is 12% - 13% The average protein content of fish meal is 65% However, in the two years from 2001 / 02, the output of fish meal has declined significantly Therefore, the demand of fish meal also depends on high protein oil meal It is clear that soybean meal is the most beneficial product when the world market is looking for alternatives to meat, bone meal and fish meal Therefore, it is not surprising that the share of soybean meal consumption in the world consumption of eight kinds of oil meal increased sharply from 62.3% in 1999 / 00 to 66% this year (see the following analysis) It is true that the protein content of peanut meal is higher than that of soybean meal, but the potential of peanut meal yield growth is very limited By the end of this year, most of the meat and bone meal in the world market should have been replaced As a result, this factor has lost its importance or its influence completely next year We expect that the world consumption growth of eight kinds of oil meal will return to the average level five years ago Although soybean meal will still have the opportunity to fill the new supply gap in the next year, for example, the output of cottonseed meal, peanut meal, rapeseed meal and coconut meal will drop, but the consumption of soybean meal may drop significantly On the other hand, after the sharp drop of 1.15 million tons or 11.5% this year, the output of sunflower meal will rise by 800000 tons, or 9% World soybean meal demand growth slowed to 5% from 8% this year, with an increase of 6.7 million tons of oil The world expects that world soybean meal consumption will reach 133.3 million tons next year, compared with 126.7 million tons this year If the output of four kinds of meal is not reduced and the world import is increased, the growth rate of consumption will be smaller, especially in developing countries At the same time, the import of developed countries will be increased from October to December 2001 On the other hand, the price of soybean meal (other meal) in 2002 / 03 was higher than this year because of the soaring price of oilseeds, which is discussed in the price chapter But soybean and rapeseed prices have risen much more than both meals (and others), as crushing is mainly used for more demanding oil As a result, the share of oil in the value of comprehensive products will increase significantly, while that of meal will decrease relatively As soybean crushing mainly serves the oil demand, the world soybean meal inventory growth in 2002 / 03 must exceed 8% to 6.1 million tons The demand for oil in the world market greatly exceeds the demand for meal In the same period, the growth of world trade slows down We expect that the export growth of the world's eight kinds of meal next year will be only 2.6 million tons, or 4.8%, compared with 3.4 million tons, or 6.7% this year The slowdown in soybean meal is even more pronounced: world exports are likely to grow by only 2.4 million tons, compared with 4.7 million tons this year Exports from Argentina and Brazil soared, but exports from the United States and India fell, offsetting some of the growth 4 kinds of oil meal: the decrease in production will reduce the consumption in 2002 / 03 Next year, the production of 4 kinds of oil meal is expected to drop significantly, such as cottonseed meal, peanut meal, rapeseed meal and coconut meal We temporarily set the output of these four kinds of oil meal as 44-44.1 million tons, 4% less than the expected output of 46 million tons this year The most obvious decline in production is cottonseed meal From October 2002 to September 2003, cottonseed meal production may only reach 15 million tons, because of the sharp drop in world production This means that next year's output will be 1.1 million tons less than this year's, or 7% Rapeseed meal production is expected to decline modestly (by about 500000 tons, down to 9.9 million tons to 20 million tons), peanut meal (possibly by 200000 tons to 7.4 million tons), and coconut meal (by 60000 tons to 1.7 million tons) China, Pakistan and India, which together account for 60% of the world's average output in the past four years, are the major producers of cottonseed meal We temporarily forecast that the total output of cottonseed meal in these countries from October 2002 to September 2003 will be about 9 million tons, a decrease of 900000 tons over the previous year The main reason for the reduction in rapeseed meal production is the decline in China's rapeseed production, which is expected to drop to about 10.7 million tons this summer As a result, we expect China's rapeseed meal production to decline significantly to below 6.8 million tons, compared with 7.2 million tons last year On the Indian side, as we expect to see an increase in the area planted with rapeseed harvested at the beginning of 2003, we temporarily forecast an increase in the production of rapeseed, so that next year's rapeseed meal production will increase accordingly But India's production growth of about 250000 to 280000 tons is not enough to fill the reduction in China's production As described in the oilseed chapter, peanut production may be reduced from October 2002 to September 2003 due to the current poor growth of crops in India As a result, the output of peanut meal in India will also be reduced sharply to about 1.7 million tons, more than 300000 tons less than that in 2001 / 02 This year, the world output of cottonseed meal, peanut meal, rapeseed meal and coconut meal may reach a record 46 million tons, mainly due to the huge supply of cottonseed meal But in 2002 / 03, the world consumption decreased greatly We temporarily predict that the consumption in this year may be 44.1 million tons, that is to say, the consumption will be reduced by about 1.8 million tons This gap will be filled by additional supply of other oil meal, especially soybean meal.