The world's first new crown "oral medicine" will be available. Why is the vaccine, neutralizing antibody, and domestic small molecule oral medicine hit hard?

On October 1, the American biopharmaceutical company Merck & Co.

This means that the world's first oral new crown treatment drug may be in the future

As soon as the news came out, Merck’s share price soared that day, with an intraday increase of more than 12%, the highest intraday increase since 2009

On the contrary, other new crown concept stocks such as U.

On October 1, when the news was announced, in the international market, Vir Biotechnology fell more than 21%, Novavax Pharmaceuticals fell 12%, Moderna fell 11%, BioNTech SE fell 6%, and Inovio Pharmaceuticals fell nearly 6.

On October 4, the Monday trading day after the news was announced, on the Hong Kong stock market, Kaifeng Pharmaceutical fell 25.

On October 8, the first trading day after the National Day of A-shares, Kansino fell 9.

Why does the arrival of the world's first oral new crown treatment drug, Molnupiravir, have such a big impact on other anti-epidemic concepts?

According to Wall Street analysts, Molnupiravir may obtain emergency use authorization this year.

Then let's look at the changes in the pattern that Molnupiravir will bring to these sectors from the perspectives of new crown vaccines, antibody therapies, and domestic small-molecule oral drugs?

01 The new crown vaccine-complementary and difficult to replace

It is worth mentioning that although the concept of vaccines has also been smashed, many experts say that vaccines and specific drugs are actually complementary.

Today Molnupiravir has achieved positive results, but most professionals still remind the importance of the role of vaccines

The White House Covid-19 consultant Zienz also publicly emphasized: "The correct way to think is that Molnupiravir is a potential additional tool in our toolbox that can protect people from the worst consequences of the new crown virus, but the vaccine is still our fight against the new crown pneumonia.

02 Antibody drugs-produce shocks, but can complement each other

New coronary pneumonia is raging around the world, and various potential treatment methods have been in full swing.

Today, molnupiravir has made important progress, and what kind of impact it will have on antibody drugs has also attracted much attention:

Some analysis pointed out that--

■From the perspective of the mechanism of action: molnupiravir has a broad spectrum and acts on virus mutant strains

■From the perspective of production and use conditions: molnupiravir is a small-molecule oral drug with large production capacity, low cost, convenient storage and transportation at room temperature, convenient oral administration, and the ability to be used on a large scale

■From the price point of view: molnupiravir is an oral medicine, simple and easy to use, relatively low cost, which helps to quickly become widely available

Overall, the emergence of molnupiravir is exciting, but some experts pointed out in an interview with DeepTech that small-molecule oral drugs such as molnupiravir also have certain limitations:

■Narrow drug delivery window: The expert said that antiviral therapy for acute viral infections often has a very narrow drug delivery window, which is often effective as soon as it is used, but the effect is not good later

■ Little effect on severely ill patients: Merck’s test results show that molnupiravir can be effective when taken in the early stages of illness
.
A previous study found that the drug hardly helped severely ill patients
.

In addition, Ding Sheng, director of the Global Health Drug R&D Center and Dean of the School of Pharmacy of Tsinghua University, also pointed out in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that for this new drug, the safety of molnupiravir remains to be further observed
.

Therefore, simply relying on the drug molnupiravir to put an end to the epidemic does not seem to be achieved in the short term.
molnupiravir will be more of a powerful supplement to the current new crown prevention and treatment methods
.

It is reported that among local companies, except Junshi Bio/Lilly's new crown neutralizing antibody drug (JS016), which has been approved for application in many major markets around the world
.
The new crown neutralizing antibody therapy developed by Tengshengbo Pharmaceutical has also entered the phase of international phase III clinical trials, with rapid progress.
Prior to this, Tengshengbo Pharmaceutical fell by 24.
33%, and it has continued to fall sharply in the past two days.
The decline has exceeded 30% since the beginning of October.

.

03 Other small molecule drugs: fight indications, fight speed, fight price

According to statistics, there are currently two small molecule drugs approved for marketing or emergency use in the world for the treatment of new coronary pneumonia.
They are Gilead’s Remdesivir (injection) and Eli Lilly’s Baritinib ( Tablets), but all belong to "old medicines and new use", and the effect is relatively limited
.

Image source: CITIC Construction Investment Research Report

In addition, there are currently 36 small-molecule drugs for the new crown that have entered clinical phase III, of which 3 are domestic companies, namely climycin (Shenyang Tonglian), procluamide (Kaiyang Pharmaceutical) and ASC09F/ritonavir Combination (Gallery Pharmaceutical)
.

Image source: CITIC Construction Investment Research Report

Among them, the new crown oral drug under development by the pioneering pharmaceutical industry-Prokalamide has now entered the global multi-center phase III clinical trial stage, and it is one of the fastest-growing projects for oral drugs against the new crown virus in China
.

As a strong competitor, the progress of Merck’s molnupiravir may greatly impact the potential markets of these companies.
Therefore, the development of the pharmaceutical industry has previously fallen 25.
55%.
In the past two days, the share price of the development of the pharmaceutical industry has slowly rebounded, and the market sentiment has gradually stabilized
.

Regarding the future competitive landscape of small molecule new crown drugs, some analysts pointed out that in detail:

What impact will molnupiravir on the other side of the ocean have?

Can domestic small molecule new crown therapeutic drug companies catch up quickly?

Who will have more indications in the future?

Whose clinical data is better?

Whose price is lower? Although the price of molnupiravir per course of treatment (US$706) is only 1/3 of the price of neutralizing antibodies, it has a price advantage, but if it is placed on the track of small-molecule oral drugs, this drug is still not cheap
.

And all the factors that affect the market structure have not been finalized
.

On the whole, the current global war epidemic still requires multiple methods to coexist, including strict prevention and control, testing, and vaccine prevention in daily life, as well as the combined use of small molecule drugs and neutralizing antibodies to truly build a strong barrier.

.

Reference report sources: Xinhua News Agency, 21 Economic Herald, DeepTech, China Times