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Pharmaceutical stock investors, this long white candlestick is too needed.
.
.
.
.
For investors in the A-share market, bitter medicine and medical treatment have been around for
a long time.
In the past year or so, the stock prices of Hengrui Pharmaceutical, the "first brother of innovative drugs", WuXi AppTec, and the "first brother of medical equipment" Mindray have fallen incessantly
.
Top 20 pharmaceutical stock market value in the first three quarters of 2022 (Reference source: Intranet)
On October 14, a long white candlestick made these investors cry
with joy.
Some stock friends even shouted: Dream back to 2020! On the same day, the biomedical and medical device sectors set off a rising
tide.
In particular, it is worth mentioning that medical devices have become the pioneer of rebound and have risen on the hot search list
.
Leading stock Mindray jumped 12%.
Small market capitalization stocks set off a 20% tide
of ups and downs.
The question is, how long can this wave of "taking medicine" last?
01 "Taking medicine market" reappears, Gülen "returns blood"
01 "Taking medicine market" reappears, Gülen "returns blood" On October 14, in anticipation of a 75 basis point interest rate hike by the Fed, US stocks had just experienced a thousand-point reversal, and investors were all expecting a legend
in the A-share market.
Live up to expectations! The three major indices of the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Small and Medium-sized Board and the ChiNext Board have gone all the way up after opening high
.
Pharmaceutical stocks rebounded
across the board.
On the list of gainers, medical devices, medical services, biological products, etc
.
topped the list.
Shenwan Pharmaceutical Bio Index recorded the largest intraday gain in 14 years
.
As the leading sector, medical devices rose by more than 9.
18%, medical services by more than 7.
71%, and CRO concepts by more than 7.
33%.
Leading enterprises with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan have become the main force
of this round of rebound.
Mindray, with a market value of more than 400 billion yuan, rose by 13.
64%, the largest one-day increase except the first day since listing
.
Hengrui Pharmaceutical and WuXi AppTec, with a market value of more than 200 billion yuan, have risen and stopped
successively.
In addition, dental leader Tongce Medical is happy to raise 10% of the limit, auxin leader Changchun high-tech board sealing was successful, and vaccine leader Zhifei Bio increased by more than 10%.
Small market capitalization medical stocks have set off a 20cm rising
tide.
As of the close, Dirui Medical, Howbo, Mike Biologics, Pumen Technology, Microelectrophysiology and other stocks are happy to raise 20% of the board
.
The entire pharmaceutical and medical sector rebounded violently, and investors who had been suffering for a long time could finally tell
each other.
Of course, this kind of market, for Gülen, a fund manager who has been bucking the trend in the past few quarters, is also a big "blood recovery"
.
As of the second quarter, among the top 10 stocks in the mixed position of CEIBS Healthcare managed by Gülen, the top 10 stocks with a single-day increase of more than 10% include Kanglong Chemical, Mindray Medical, Tigermed Pharmaceutical, WuXi AppTec, and Tongce Medical
.
Another pharmaceutical fund manager who has attracted much attention, Zhao Bei, whose ICBC Frontier Medical, holds more than 10% of the top 10 stocks, including Kanglong Chemical, Mindray, Medici, WuXi AppTec and so on
.
Since last year, because their holdings are too concentrated in the pharmaceutical sector, the two fund managers have not only been under great pressure, but also constantly increased their positions
against the trend.
Today's violent backlash may just be a reward
for the brave.
The reappearance of the A-share market "taking medicine" also made the once pharmaceutical more convinced that the market was fair
.
Especially for high-quality assets, it will fall when it rises more, and it will rise when it falls more, which is also a cycle
.
02 Why has medical become a "leading big brother"?
02 Why has medical become a "leading big brother"?
Pharmaceutical stocks soared, and the medical device sector made a big
contribution.
Why did the medical sector, which was once unwelcome, suddenly work again? At one time, Pharmaceutical believed that this was closely related to
policy-driven and good company performance.
First, policy assistance
.
.
Reviewing the trend of the medical sector, collective procurement is undoubtedly a factor
affecting the decline of stock prices.
However, the results of the third batch of high-value medical consumables show that there is a marginal warming signal
of policy.
A few days ago, according to CCTV news reports, the bidding conference for centralized procurement of spinal consumables was held
.
Southwest Securities believes that the results of orthopedic centralized procurement have landed, the sector has been exhausted in the short term, the policy side has tended to ease, and in the medium and long term, leading enterprises are expected to achieve steady growth
by exchanging price for volume.
When the centralized procurement policy picked up, the central bank and the health construction commission sent another large order
.
On September 28, the central bank's website released news that the People's Bank of China had set up a special reloan for renovation, with an amount of more than 200 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.
75%.
Health education has become one of the
areas supported by special refinancing policies.
Subsequently, the National Health and Construction Commission issued the "Notice of the National Health Commission on Carrying out Financial Subsidized Loans for the Renovation of Medical Equipment", proposing to implement a phased incentive policy for new loans for the purchase and renovation of medical institutions' equipment, with a central financial discount of 2.
5% and a term of 2 years
.
Some institutions believe that this move is expected to release the demand for hospital medical equipment procurement, ease the shortage of funds of medical institutions, help stimulate the procurement momentum of new hospitals and private hospitals, accelerate the domestic substitution of medical equipment, and comprehensively improve the diagnosis and treatment service capabilities
of domestic medical institutions.
For the medical device sector, a larger narrative may be unfolding
.
In May 2022, the "Opinions on Promoting Urbanization Construction with County Towns as an Important Carrier" was released, promoting the upgrading and transformation of county-level hospitals (including traditional Chinese medicine hospitals), and promoting the facilities and service capabilities of
tertiary hospitals.
At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Health Commission issued the "Work Plan for the Orderly Expansion of the Construction of National Regional Medical Centers", proposing to basically complete the nationwide planning and layout by the end of 2022, and strive to cover all provinces
in the country with the construction of national regional medical centers.
The completion of new medical infrastructure is the general trend
of national medical system construction.
Caixin Securities believes that its prosperity has spread from the infrastructure in the front to the back end of the industrial chain, benefiting related enterprises such as medical equipment and medical informatization
.
Second, the performance is good, and the valuation highlights the cost performance
.
.
The policy has helped provide medical device-related companies with the "wind" of the times, allowing investors to see the hope of
the sector.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, the performance of related companies has been good, which is also an important driver of the rebound of stock prices in this round of
sectors.
A few days ago, leading companies such as Mindray Medical and WuXi AppTec have released their third quarterly performance forecasts
.
Data shows that in the first three quarters, Mindray achieved revenue of 23.
3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%; The net profit was 8.
1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%.
For the performance of the "first brother of medical equipment", a friend laughed and said that "stable as a dog"
.
The performance of medical device leader Mindray continues to be stable, while the performance of CRO leader WuXi AppTec can be regarded as "against the sky"
.
In the first three quarters, WuXi AppTec expects to achieve revenue of 28.
39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.
87%, net profit of 7.
38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.
2%, and non-net profit of 6.
23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.
6%.
In a tall boom track, WuXi AppTec's performance slightly exceeded market expectations, highlighting the strong growth momentum
.
Under the high growth of performance, the valuation of the sector fell to dust
.
BOC Securities believes that from 2019 to 2020, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Bio Index doubled its growth, and the range valuation reached the historical extreme
.
Since the second half of 2021, the entire pharmaceutical sector has entered a period of adjustment, with an overall decline of about 50%, whether in time or space, and the adjustment is close to the end
.
The PE of the A-share pharmaceutical sector was 22.
8 times (TTM), which was already lower than the all-time low in January 2019
.
As the most certain direction of performance in the entire sector, medical devices led the rise, which seems reasonable
.
Of course, how long can this wave of "taking medicine" market rebound, once medicine will continue to pay attention
.
