​The word "stable" in live pig production takes the lead, and industrial integration has developed into...

After experiencing the decline in production capacity after African swine fever and the rapid resumption of production in the industry in the past two years, the production capacity of live pigs has recovered in 2022 and there will be a phased surplus

According to industry analysis, "stable" has become the center of the development of the pig industry this year

The production capacity of live pigs has changed from "accelerating" to "stable"

On March 18, the "Notice on Further Doing a Good Job in the Production of Important Agricultural Products such as Grain and Soybeans" published on the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission showed that it is necessary to pay close attention to the study and judgment of the supply and demand situation of live pigs in the region and the evolution of the pig cycle, and timely take measures such as government procurement and storage.

The Beijing News reporter noticed that since 2020, live pigs have been mentioned in the Central No.

From "acceleration" to "protection" to "stable", Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, analyzed to the Beijing News reporter that the above-mentioned changes in terms reflect the changes in China's pig production capacity in the past three years

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of June 2021, the national live pig inventory reached 439 million, which had recovered to 99.

Zhu Zengyong told the Beijing News reporter that as "stability" mentioned in the Central Document No.

Periodic excess of pig production capacity

In March 2022, Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, pointed out in a media interview that by the end of 2021, there will be 449 million live pigs in the country, and these live pigs will be released one after another from January to June 2022

The phased excess of pork production capacity is also reflected in the price level.

Liu Tong, head of the Statistics Department of Xinfadi, mentioned in the analysis of the prices for the week from March 5th to 11th in Xinfadi, Beijing, that after the government introduced the "collection, storage and trust market" measures, the downward trend in the price of white striped pigs has been curbed.

On March 15, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it would start the third batch of central frozen pork reserves this year with relevant departments, and instruct all localities to speed up the procurement and storage

In the face of low pig prices and excess production capacity in the market, pig companies have also returned to a calm attitude towards capacity expansion

Muyuan Co.

Dongxing Securities analysts Cheng Shiyue and Meng Lin pointed out in the research report that the slaughter targets of a number of listed pig companies are mostly stable, and most of them have no plans for further rapid expansion of production capacity

Breeding sows are the "master switch" for pig production

In addition to the self-regulation of breeding enterprises, policy support is indispensable to stabilize pig production

Regarding how to stabilize the long-term support policy for live pig production, the "Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Live Pig Industry" mentioned that to stabilize the pig loan policy, banking financial institutions should accelerate the promotion of land management rights, breeding pens, large-scale breeding machinery and Live pig mortgage loans; improve policy insurance for live pigs, further promote live pig breeding insurance, and realize the guarantee of all farms (households); ) to implement forced liquidation,

Focusing on how to achieve stable production capacity, the "Implementation Plan for Production Capacity Control of Live Pigs (Interim)" pointed out that the ability to reproduce sows is the basis of live pig production and the "master switch" of market supply.
The production of piglets is guaranteed, and the market supply of live pigs and pork prices can remain relatively stable
.
The normal population of reproductive sows during the "14th Five-Year Plan" should be stable at about 41 million, and the minimum population should not be less than 37 million
.

At the same time, according to the production capacity regulation requirements of live pigs, changes in the number of reproductive sows should be divided into green (95%-105%, which belongs to normal fluctuations in production capacity), yellow (90%-95%), based on the proportion of the monthly inventory in the normal inventory.
% and 105%-110%, which are large fluctuations in production capacity) and red (below 90% or higher than 110%, which are excessive fluctuations in production capacity), and take corresponding control measures
.

Zhu Zengyong pointed out that these are also the differences between the policies of this round of pig cycles and previous pig cycles
.
The previous policy may have been more about "relying on the head with a headache, and treating the foot with a sore foot", but this round of pig cycle is to maintain the connection of land and financial support policies, and to seize the production capacity of reproductive sows under the market mechanism.
This core indicator, through authoritative, objective and fair early warning information, guides the steady transformation of production capacity to a basic balance of supply and demand, reduces the risk of farmers being forced to withdraw due to the broken capital chain, and enables them to adjust the production capacity within a reasonable range
.

The industry recommends guiding the integrated development of the industry

At the National Two Sessions in 2022, many deputies to the National People's Congress and members of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference also put forward more suggestions or proposals to stabilize production and supply from an industry perspective
.

Among them, Liu Hanyuan, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of the board of directors of Tongwei Group, suggested to encourage increased investment in pig breeding, breeding technology and technology, and comprehensively improve breeding efficiency through digitalization and intelligence; guide the integrated development of the pig industry, ensure pork food safety, and achieve The whole process of pork can be traced, and illegal acts such as water injection and drug injection in the slaughtering process and slaughtering of sick and dead pigs are severely cracked down, and the whole process of cold chain transportation of pork products is guided
.

Liu Yonghao, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the New Hope Group, pointed out in the proposal on "stabilizing the production capacity of live pigs, reducing cyclical fluctuations, and guiding the stable upgrading of the live pig industry" that it is possible to improve the traceability system of food raw materials and encourage agencies and units to purchase safe traceable meat, etc.
In this way, enterprises can be guided to open up the integrated industry chain of breeding-slaughtering-downstream food, and improve the ability of upstream breeding to resist risks
.

In addition, Liu Yonghao also believes that it can guide and support the R&D and innovation of processed pork products and broaden the consumption scenarios of pork, "such as the application of pork products in hot pot and barbecue catering formats, and the application of bacon in home breakfast and snack consumption scenarios
.
" Introducing advanced overseas pork Food processing technology, refine and improve pork storage and import and export control policies,
etc.

Qin Yinglin, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Muyuan Group, suggested that the production of live pigs should be stabilized by establishing a long-term subsidy mechanism for production and sales areas, and the formation of a long-term mechanism for compensation of production areas in sales areas should be promoted through resource and environmental compensation and cross-regional cooperation to establish breeding bases.
; Optimize the dynamic adjustment mechanism for live pigs to be transferred out of large counties, and support the development of live pig production and the construction of circulation infrastructure
.

In Qin Yinglin's view, establishing a long-term mechanism for compensating production areas for sales areas can not only ensure the supply of live pigs in the sales areas, but also stimulate the enthusiasm of the governments of pig production areas, focusing on supporting the development of the pig industry
.
The government of the production area drives the economic development of the production area by supporting the layout and development of the whole pig industry chain
.

Monitoring and early warning system scientifically guides breeding subjects

In addition to working hard in breeding, slaughtering and sales, improving the monitoring and early warning system of the whole pig industry chain will play a positive role in stabilizing pig production
.
In 2021, the pig product information platform jointly released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the National Bureau of Statistics will be launched on the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
.

Some practitioners in the pig industry told the Beijing News that they often check the above data on pig prices, costs, consumption, etc.
, as well as the important policies of various ministries and commissions on the pig industry, which are of great reference for work
.

Zhu Zengyong introduced to the Beijing News reporter that the monitoring of the entire industry chain of live pigs includes upstream feed, breeding pigs, breeding, and downstream slaughtering, processing, consumption and trade
.
In recent years, although the level of scale has been continuously improved, the main body of pig farming in China is still mainly small and medium-sized
.
However, it is often difficult for small and medium-sized breeding entities to accurately grasp production and market information.
In the end, the contradiction between small production and large market is transmitted to the fluctuation of pig prices
.
The government establishes a monitoring and early warning system for the entire industry chain, which can more systematically collect, organize, and release authoritative information on the industry chain.
Through information early warning, it can reasonably guide small and medium-sized farmers and aquaculture enterprises to objectively understand the current supply and demand situation, so as to allow farmers to make timely arrangements.
Production rhythm to prevent irrational exits
.

As for when China's pig supply and demand will enter a stable state, Zhu Zengyong said that this year's pork supply is still relatively abundant
.
At present, from the perspective of the production capacity of breeding sows, in the first half of 2022, the pork market may still show a phased situation of abundant supply, and the overall pig price is in a downward trend
.
The current pressure on the pork market should only be short-term, and without the impact of unexpected factors, "by the second half of this year, the supply and demand situation may turn to a basic balance, and 2023 will enter a new round of pig cycle
.
"