The upward trend of international oil prices has been established

after experiencing the 2008 market dive, the global oil market downturn has passed, the price bottom is basically completedIn the medium and long term, the international market oil prices will be dominated by volatility, driven by inflation, tight supply and speculative capitalTo this end, we must be safe, proactive and respond earlyafter experiencing a plunge in the 2008 market, the price of oil on the international market in February 2009 has reached $50/barrel, compared with the previous low of $34/barrel, an increase of more than 40%It should be said that the worst period of the global oil market has passed, the price bottom ingest is basically completedwhat will be the general trend of oil prices in the international market in the future? Overall analysis, although the world financial crisis is still spreading deeply, financial institutions and the real economy may still suffer a greater impact, resulting in a rapid recovery in oil demand, the near-term market situation may continue to run weakly, but from the medium to long-term perspective, driven by three major factors, the international market oil prices will be volatile upward adjustmentThis is a basic trend, some short-term negative factors can certainly affect market volatility, but can not reverse the situationthree factors to promote the oil price upwardpreliminary analysis, the future to promote the international market oil price volatility upward in three main factors:is inflationThis super-oil bull market began at more than $10/barrel in the late last century and early 2000 and rose to $147 a barrel in the first half of 2008One of the most important reasons is the sharp depreciation of the dollarExperts have roughly calculated that the average international market price of $97 per barrel in 2008 would be equivalent to $35 per barrel in 1980, excluding the depreciation of the dollarDuring that time, the dollar has lost at least half its valuecountries around the world are almost frantically injecting liquidity in order to save the market, reduce unemployment and solve the most pressing economic problemsThe side effects of this are enormous and are likely to lead to severe future inflation, with competing devaluations of currencies, led by the United States dollarIt remains to be seen that the Us government, in the past, will take steps to maintain the dollar's strong position in a sincere manner, given its core interest (the right to mint) Because the United States has accumulated large fiscal deficits and trade deficits, and must continue to rely on more fiscal deficits and huge debt to stimulate the economy More recently, the Fed announced a $300 billion bond purchase, the equivalent of a money-printing machine to "rescue the market" A substantial increase in the money supply could eventually lead to severe inflation In this context, the long-term sharp decline in the dollar is inevitable, and this is not something the US government is in control of At present, more and more safe-haven funds are beginning to pour into commodity markets, international oil prices are sure to rise strongly again the second is tight supply It should be said that at this stage, the global oil overcapacity is only a temporary situation, supply tight is the basic normal There are two reasons for this: first, china, India, Brazil and other large population countries into industrialization, the global oil demand is sustained Second, the current oil price downturn, close to the production costs of operation, will lead to insufficient investment in production capacity, and thus affect the future oil supply According to the information, oil investment in the Gulf states alone has fallen by $200 billion, with a contraction of nearly 20 per cent, and many planned oil and gas investment projects have been delayed for five years as a result of the impact of the world financial tsunami and the collapse in oil prices the IEA is concerned that it will affect oil prices in the coming years There is even a view that the world economy will be plunged into a new crisis in the future because of the shortage of oil, and that its scale and extent will exceed the crisis we are currently experiencing The third is speculative capital factor The role of speculative capital in driving up commodity prices cannot be ignored The concentration of speculative purchasefunds into the market can significantly amplify market demand and push prices far beyond the extreme required by genuine supply and demand This is what we commonly call a "speculative premium" for example, when oil prices peaked at $147 a barrel in 2008, the level of real supply and demand would never exceed $50 a barrel, excluding speculative purchases because in 2008 the world's real oil demand was just over 8 million barrels a day, but at the worst of the hype, 300 million barrels of crude oil were traded each day What is really "the elephant stepped into the bath", its speculative purchase volume, "speculative premium" can be seen as the high And with the gradual recovery of oil consumption in the future, as oil prices fall, the value of investment highlights, and "crazy capital injection sending excess liquidity, international capital will also come back, once again fueling the price of oil." "
due to these three factors, the future oil price is really likely to break through the previous high, see $100/barrel, or even $200/barrel higher to deal with high oil prices
　　There is little doubt that the era of low prices in the oil market is over The current price downturn is only a temporary situation in the context of the financial crisis, after the financial tsunami, the future oil prices will certainly return to the normal situation of tight prices To this end, we must be in a safe place, plan ahead and respond early first of all, the state should increase its reserves China is a country with a low level of oil resources per capita With the establishment of China's "world factory" status, the scale of processed exports gradually expanded, energy supply "bottleneck" on China's economic growth is also gradually enhanced At present, China's external dependence on oil has reached about 50%, it is expected that the dependence on imported oil (including natural gas) will increase in the future Therefore, we must take the current low-cost oil, natural gas, coal and other energy products as an excellent investment opportunity, large-scale reserve acquisitions, increase overseas resource acquisitions, and is the lower the price to buy To make a good strategy of resources to copy this game, China's huge foreign exchange reserves, especially the newly added foreign exchange, as much as possible into energy product reserves The second is that investors can do more strategically As mentioned above, the downward space of energy products such as oil and coal has been squeezed by the price of oil and coal prices after they have fallen to their current levels In this case, the risk of devaluation of its products is not great, but the preservation of value, appreciation potential is broad Of course, because the world financial crisis has not yet bottomed out, consumer demand in a short period of time difficult to recover quickly, the international market oil market may be at a low level of repeated shocks, such as the most pessimistic forecast is the oil price to see $30 / barrel, or even $25 / barrel, but even so, compared with the previous appeared $34 / barrel price, there is only a few dollars of falling space, bad not to go Therefore, the current period of time for market investors, should be the start of strategic buying a good time after experiencing the 2008 market dive, the global oil market downturn has passed, the price bottom is basically completed In the medium and long term, the international market oil prices will be dominated by volatility, driven by inflation, tight supply and speculative capital To this end, we must be safe, proactive and respond early after experiencing a plunge in the 2008 market, the price of oil on the international market in February 2009 has reached $50/barrel, compared with the previous low of $34/barrel, an increase of more than 40% It should be said that the worst period of the global oil market has passed, the price bottom ingest is basically completed what will be the general trend of oil prices in the international market in the future? Overall analysis, although the world financial crisis is still spreading deeply, financial institutions and the real economy may still suffer a greater impact, resulting in a rapid recovery in oil demand, the near-term market situation may continue to run weakly, but from the medium to long-term perspective, driven by three major factors, the international market oil prices will be volatile upward adjustment This is a basic trend, some short-term negative factors can certainly affect market volatility, but can not reverse the situation three factors to promote the oil price upward preliminary analysis, the future to promote the international market oil price volatility upward in three main factors: is inflation This super-oil bull market began at more than $10/barrel in the late last century and early 2000 and rose to $147 a barrel in the first half of 2008 One of the most important reasons is the sharp depreciation of the dollar Experts have roughly calculated that the average international market price of $97 per barrel in 2008 would be equivalent to $35 per barrel in 1980, excluding the depreciation of the dollar During that time, the dollar has lost at least half its value countries around the world are almost frantically injecting liquidity in order to save the market, reduce unemployment and solve the most pressing economic problems The side effects of this are enormous and are likely to lead to severe future inflation, with competing devaluations of currencies, led by the United States dollar It remains to be seen that the Us government, in the past, will take steps to maintain the dollar's strong position in a sincere manner, given its core interest (the right to mint) Because the United States has accumulated large fiscal deficits and trade deficits, and must continue to rely on more fiscal deficits and huge debt to stimulate the economy More recently, the Fed announced a $300 billion bond purchase, the equivalent of a money-printing machine to "rescue the market" A substantial increase in the money supply could eventually lead to severe inflation In this context, the long-term sharp decline in the dollar is inevitable, and this is not something the US government is in control of At present, more and more safe-haven funds are beginning to pour into commodity markets, international oil prices are sure to rise strongly again the second is tight supply It should be said that at this stage, the global oil overcapacity is only a temporary situation, supply tight is the basic normal There are two reasons for this: first, china, India, Brazil and other large population countries into industrialization, the global oil demand is sustained Second, the current oil price downturn, close to the production costs of operation, will lead to insufficient investment in production capacity, and thus affect the future oil supply According to the information, oil investment in the Gulf states alone has fallen by $200 billion, with a contraction of nearly 20 per cent, and many planned oil and gas investment projects have been delayed for five years as a result of the impact of the world financial tsunami and the collapse in oil prices the IEA is concerned that it will affect oil prices in the coming years There is even a view that the world economy will be plunged into a new crisis in the future because of the shortage of oil, and that its scale and extent will exceed the crisis we are currently experiencing The third is speculative capital factor The role of speculative capital in driving up commodity prices cannot be ignored The concentration of speculative purchasefunds into the market can significantly amplify market demand and push prices far beyond the extreme required by genuine supply and demand This is what we commonly call a "speculative premium" for example, when oil prices peaked at $147 a barrel in 2008, the level of real supply and demand would never exceed $50 a barrel, excluding speculative purchases because in 2008 the world's real oil demand was just over 8 million barrels a day, but at the worst of the hype, 300 million barrels of crude oil were traded each day What is really "the elephant stepped into the bath", its speculative purchase volume, "speculative premium" can be seen as the high And with the gradual recovery of oil consumption in the future, as oil prices fall, the value of investment highlights, and "crazy capital injection sending excess liquidity, international capital will also come back, once again fueling the price of oil." "
due to these three factors, the future oil price is really likely to break through the previous high, see $100/barrel, or even $200/barrel higher to deal with high oil prices
　　There is little doubt that the era of low prices in the oil market is over The current price downturn is only a temporary situation in the context of the financial crisis, after the financial tsunami, the future oil prices will certainly return to the normal situation of tight prices To this end, we must be in a safe place, plan ahead and respond early first of all, the state should increase its reserves China is a country with a low level of oil resources per capita With the establishment of China's "world factory" status, the scale of processed exports gradually expanded, energy supply "bottleneck" on China's economic growth is also gradually enhanced At present, China's external dependence on oil has reached about 50%, it is expected that the dependence on imported oil (including natural gas) will increase in the future Therefore, we must take the current low-cost oil, natural gas, coal and other energy products as an excellent investment opportunity, large-scale reserve acquisitions, increase overseas resource acquisitions, and is the lower the price to buy To make a good strategy of resources to copy this game, China's huge foreign exchange reserves, especially the newly added foreign exchange, as much as possible into energy product reserves The second is that investors can do more strategically As mentioned above, the downward space of energy products such as oil and coal has been squeezed by the price of oil and coal prices after they have fallen to their current levels In this case, the risk of devaluation of its products is not great, but the preservation of value, appreciation potential is broad Of course, because the world financial crisis has not yet bottomed out, consumer demand in a short period of time difficult to recover quickly, the international market oil market may be at a low level of repeated shocks, such as the most pessimistic forecast is the oil price to see $30 / barrel, or even $25 / barrel, but even so, compared with the previous appeared $34 / barrel price, there is only a few dollars of falling space, bad not to go Therefore, the current period of time for market investors, should be the start of strategic buying a good time (Chen Kexin)