The trend of soybean market in the near future and its later analysis

Introduction: with the arrival of imported soybeans at various ports, there has been panic in the soybean market in recent years The domestic soybean market has ended the situation that the stock of soybean dealers is to be increased, and the market price has declined At this stage, the wait-and-see ingredients are mostly, and the purchase intention is not strong, resulting in the transaction in the soybean market is sparse, and the transaction volume is also significantly reduced Recently, the spot price of imported soybean in Tianjin Port has been significantly reduced, which is 2120-2140 yuan / ton, and the centralized transaction price is 2100-2120 yuan / ton, which is 100-180 yuan / ton lower than that in mid June There is no supply and quotation in domestic soybean market, while the small wholesale price in food processing soybean market is 2400 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than that in mid June; the quotation of imported soybean in Shandong ports is 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and the centralized transaction price is 2100 yuan / ton; the soybean prices in Henan and Shaanxi are basically the same However, the price of soybean for oil use in Heilongjiang Province is mostly 1940-1960 yuan / ton, an average decrease of 60 yuan / ton compared with that in the middle of June, while the price of edible soybean is relatively stable, around 2020 yuan / ton Soybean oil and soybean meal market lost the exciting momentum in the past, just entered the middle of June in the late market price showed a slow downward trend, in late June soybean oil and soybean meal market price showed a large decline ① The price of secondary soybean oil in Tianjin oil plant is higher than that in other regions, at 4800 yuan / ton, which is 80 yuan / ton lower than the previous price; the sales price of Northeast soybean oil in Tianjin is lower, which is 4620-4680 yuan / ton, which is 20-80 yuan / ton lower than the previous 4700 yuan / ton; the price of Heilongjiang soybean oil is 4600-4640 yuan / ton, which is 40 yuan / ton lower than the previous 4640-4680 yuan / ton; the price of Shandong soybean oil is about 4650 yuan / ton, which is 40 yuan / ton lower than the previous 4640-4680 yuan / ton In the early stage, 4680-4700 yuan / ton decreased by 30-50 yuan / ton ② The market of salad oil has changed a lot The price of salad oil in Tianjin oil factory has decreased from 5060-5100 yuan / ton in the early stage to 4920-4930 yuan / ton, while the price of salad oil produced in other areas of Tianjin market is 4850-4880 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan / ton The price of Heilongjiang salad oil is 4950 yuan / ton, with a decrease of about 100 yuan / ton compared with the middle of June The price of Shandong salad oil is 4950 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan / ton compared with the middle of June Right ③ Soybean meal Market: the price of soybean meal in Tianjin oil plant is 1900 yuan / ton, and that in foreign lands is 1840 yuan / ton, which is 50-100 yuan / ton lower than that in mid June; the price of Heilongjiang soybean meal is 1650-1670 yuan / ton, which is 120-160 yuan / ton lower than that in mid June; the current price of Shandong soybean meal is 1700-1720 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that in mid June The current trend of soybean and soybean oil market and the analysis of its later situation: first, the precedent of soybean import has been established, and a large number of imported soybeans will arrive in Hong Kong in succession Since the first ship of soybean unloading, at present, there are six ships confirmed to unload imported soybean at the port, namely, one ship in Dalian, one ship in Tianjin, one ship in Yantai, one ship in Zhangjiagang and two ships in Guangdong port Other ships coming to the port are: one ship from Rizhao Port, three ships from Lianyungang, two ships from Qingdao port, one ship from Qinhuangdao, one ship from Zhangjiagang and one ship from Fangcheng port The arrival dates are in late June and early July respectively Under the condition that the imported soybeans are being unloaded one after another and a large number of soybeans are about to arrive at the port, the psychological panic of dealers and crushing enterprises is directly reflected in the market, which makes the market atmosphere cool down rapidly, which is the main reason for the sharp decline in the prices of soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil Under the condition that the trend of soybean market is not optimistic, the number of oil factories that have not started much will be expanded again They will actively sell soybean oil and soybean meal and prepare to sell soybean products before the market fully falls back The decrease in the enthusiasm for soybean procurement is another reason for the fall in the prices of soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil The total number of soybean import licenses issued by AQSIQ in January June is estimated to be more than 6 million tons, and the licensing work is continuing recently It is expected that the licensing progress will reach a high level by the end of August this year This undoubtedly makes the trend of soybean and its products in the later stage tend to be depressed, which is largely influenced by the international market price 2 The reason for the sharp decline of soybean meal market price: the apparent cause of the sharp decline of soybean meal market is that soybean imports have been increasing, which has increased the psychological panic and pressure factors of the industry and reduced the market demand for soybean meal In fact, the soybean meal market has planted the seeds of a sharp drop in price early this year It can be judged and analyzed from the following aspects ① The cultivation is shrinking and the demand is insufficient At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of pigs died in Beijing and Tianjin due to No 5, which greatly reduced the number of pigs in the first half of this year In addition, in the first half of the year, the price of soybean meal and corn raw materials in the aquaculture industry was too high, basically in the situation of losing money, resulting in a decline in the enthusiasm for aquaculture, many farmers were deterred, and it was difficult to restore the scale of aquaculture In the first half of this year, facing China's accession to the WTO, foreign countries have adopted trade barriers to restrict and avoid the influx of domestic poultry series, so as to protect the interests of domestic breeders Thus, the whole aquaculture industry in China will shrink, and the demand for soybean meal will decrease ② Since the first and middle of June, China has entered the adjustment period of soybean meal First of all, the summer harvest affected the cultivation and purchase; second, the hot summer came, many breeding plants began to reduce the number of stocks For example, in the case of high breeding cost and inability to make money in the early stage, most of the fish are disposed of before and during the summer harvest, resulting in a better market for fish and a lower price for soybean meal And those who do not reduce the number of stocks are also trying to reduce the stock of raw materials These are the reasons for the decrease of soybean meal demand and price ③ The price of soybean meal and corn was very high in the previous period, which restricted the development of the breeding industry, making the breeding industry only use the substitute of soybean meal, not the quality of breeding, only the survival, not the speed ④ The flood disaster in the southern provinces of China's main breeding areas further reduced the demand for soybean meal With the gradual increase of imported soybeans and the gradual decrease of prices, the market price of soybean meal still has a certain space to decline When it comes to a certain price and period, the breeding industry in Beijing and Tianjin will recover at the same time under the favorable breeding situation, the flood disaster in the South will stop, the production will recover stably, the soybean meal demand will expand rapidly, and the price will rise steadily But in general, it depends on the quantity, price and policy of soybean import The demand for soybean meal should increase after the end of July 3 Soybean oil market analysis: in recent days, the price of edible oil in domestic grain and oil markets has declined to varying degrees The main reason is that the oil factories in Shandong, northeast and other regions respond sensitively to the psychological pressure of imported soybeans coming to Hong Kong in succession, which makes the soybean oil market price rise in the early stage of the reform under the condition that the soybean price has not changed much, showing a significant decline, and the market panic increases The author's view on the trend of soybean oil in the later stage is that the current arrival of imported soybean is not large, and the distribution situation is almost zero, almost all of them are for their own use At present, although the price of soybean oil has been sliding a lot, the current situation will force the soybean crushing plant to shut down After the consumption of soybean oil in the early stage, the quantity of soybean oil is not much, which will reduce the supply of soybean edible oil in the market in the near future Therefore, the short-term soybean oil market price should still have the opportunity of oscillation and recovery, and the later market price should be mainly adjusted below.