The time for oil companies to hedge is ripe

Introduction: since July, CBOT soybean, South American soybean, domestic soybean, soybean meal futures and spot market often have reasonable price differences Based on this, oil and fat enterprises can use soybean and soybean meal futures to hedge a certain amount, so as to avoid risks, lock in production profits and get out of the loss predicament, It is no longer troubled by default and production suspension At present, CBOT soybean is generally in a downward trend The favorable weather makes investors believe in the huge increase of soybean production in the United States and South America in the future, and the contract fell all the way in the far month Farmers accelerated the sale of Chen beans, which caused the harbor base to continue to fall, and the market demand to be relatively low In addition, a large number of selling of funds and commercial hedging plates made the contract price continue to plummet in the near month Although the decline of CBOT soybeans has increased the discount in South America, the import cost of Chinese enterprises has always been at a low price in the later period It is worth noting that China's demand has always led to volatility risk in the US market, thus affecting the cost of soybean procurement in South America Domestic soybean meal futures and spot market prices show a significant departure, soybean meal futures have been in a downward trend in the near future, while spot market prices are relatively stable This is mainly because the domestic soybean meal futures price is more in line with the trend of CBOT soybean futures price, while the domestic soybean meal spot price is more in line with the domestic soybean inventory, the market consumption of soybean meal and the recovery of aquaculture In terms of futures, the bearish atmosphere of Liandou is strong, but the market shows a strong willingness to copy the bottom, and the futures price is lower than the spot price In terms of spot goods, the cost of imported soybeans arriving at the port in the later period tends to decrease, and the aquaculture industry is partially improved, but the domestic transportation is tight, and the effective arrival volume of imported soybeans in the far month may be insufficient, so the performance of soybean meal in some areas is relatively strong Feed enterprises are still bearish towards the future market, so at present, most of them adopt the purchase strategy of "buy it now, use it now", and there is no significant increase or decrease in the number of soybean meal produced by oil plants Aquaculture has stepped into the seasonal peak season of production, and the situation of soybean meal consumption should be improved However, due to the replacement of part of soybean meal consumption by rapeseed meal, the downward trend is estimated to be difficult to change in the short term At present, the spot soybean meal price continues to drop slightly to the first line of 2830 yuan / ton, and the soybean oil price is stable at the first line of 6350 yuan / ton Due to the implementation of high price contracts in the early stage, some oil plants still have a loss of about 600 yuan / ton; some oil plants have signed new contracts, although the discount and shipping fees have been increased recently, but the U.S market price has declined, so the squeeze profit of August shipping period can still be more than 300 yuan, which can be fully locked in soybean meal futures Different enterprises can adopt different hedging strategies First of all, large oil companies with no problem in capital are now purchasing cheaper South American soybeans for August shipment, and can sell part of the hedging on the September continuous meal contract at the same time According to the tracking calculation of the model, there has been a considerable profit in the late July of importing South American soybeans After the CBOT point price of the latest shipping date in August, July 26, the port duty paid price is 2859 yuan Then, according to the relatively stable soybean oil price, the conversion price of soybean meal is 2331 yuan / ton, which is 314 yuan lower than the contract price of soybean meal in September, which can be realized by selling the contract soybean meal in September If the price difference between the two markets is narrowed in a few days, or even the positions can be closed bilaterally, it is equivalent to completing an arbitrage transaction Secondly, at present, many oil companies with soybean meal inventory can transfer the risk by the way of spot to futures Now the soybean meal spot is higher than the futures Although there are differences in different regions, it is still around 200 yuan / ton in total The oil factory can consider to reduce the price of some stocks by 100 yuan, and buy the soybean meal futures in September at the same time, which not only reduces the storage cost and capital cost, but also avoids the risk of long-term and qualitative change of soybean meal storage in hot summer The later closing and conversion operation is also convenient In the future, if soybean meal price stops falling and rebounds, it will be good If it continues to fall, it will not be out of control because spot sales fall into a vicious circle Finally, due to the continuous collapse of the soybean contract in September, the price ratio between the soybean contract and the soybean meal contract in September is underestimated, so the oil factory can prepare for arbitrage and hedging According to the multi-year statistical model, the central price of the two contract basis is around 450 yuan, and the high price difference is around 700 yuan At present, it is in the low price difference area of 230 yuan Oil companies can buy September soybeans and sell September soymeal as arbitrage On the one hand, it's much cheaper to buy 2900 yuan / ton of soybeans in September than 3400 yuan / ton of port distribution price; on the other hand, the price of imported soybean meal will be lower in the future, and the price of spot soybean meal rising now may be flat by then; buying soybean and selling soybean meal are delivered in the same month, and there are certain time barriers in the process of spot operation, but spot enterprises can use inventory to process soybean meal delivery, Replenish soybean stocks after delivery In this way, if the price difference expands in the future, the profit will be used to close the position On the contrary, in addition to delivery, some soybean meal contracts can even be considered to move the position for long-term and partial period cash transfer operation.