The swine industry "takes a sharp turn", the state releases 3 changes, which will affect free-range households

With the full recovery of pig production capacity in China, coupled with the active and passive increase of pig slaughter weight by pig farmers, the supply of pork across the country has changed from a shortage of supply to an oversupply, and the price of pigs has also fallen, and the rate of decline has almost exceeded In the imagination of all pig farmers, the pig industry has turned from a huge profit to a loss

After the pig industry suffered losses, large and small pig farms have made corresponding adjustments.

Some experts worry that with the decline in pig prices, the enthusiasm of pig farmers to develop production has been frustrated, coupled with the tightening of environmental protection and insurance policies after production capacity is restored, the stagnant state of the pig market may be further magnified, and it has just recovered.

In order to maintain the current production capacity, the pig industry has come to a "swift turn".

Improve the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical regulation mechanism of pig production capacitytpA-，

The pig breeding cycle has always been a vicious circle that pig farmers cannot avoid.

Establishing a counter-cyclical regulation mechanism for pig production is to grasp the "master switch" of the production and market supply of reproductive sows, and set the monthly year-on-year change rate of reproductive sows plus or minus 5% and 10% as the control benchmark.

Recently, the "Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Pig Industry" jointly issued by the six departments recently pointed out that a countercyclical control mechanism should be established with the number of reproductive sows as the core indicator, and the control policies and measures should be improved and strengthened.

Although it seems to have a great relationship with large-scale pig farms, it is actually very helpful to individual farmers, because compared with the stable breeding of large-scale pig farms, the changes of individual farmers are more frequent, and the pig cycle is more important.

　　As soon as possible to integrate 43% of small-scale farmers into the process of agricultural modernizationtpA-，

　　Although the occurrence of non-pest disease and the operation of superimposed pig cycles have accelerated the large-scale process of pig breeding in China, as of the end of 2020, the number of pigs on large-scale pig farms with an annual output of more than 500 pigs accounted for the total number of pigs in the country.

　　To stabilize the national production capacity, first of all, we must stabilize the enthusiasm of individual farmers for breeding

　　Poor management can be achieved through the establishment of breeding cooperatives to gather scattered households and unify the original purchases of feed and veterinary drugs to strengthen management

　　Formulate implementation measures for pig production capacity controltpA-，

　　In 2019, in order to accelerate the recovery of live pig production capacity in China, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Three-Year Action Plan for Accelerating the Recovery and Development of Live Pig Production", which compacted the production capacity recovery target to governments at all levels.

　　The current goal of stabilizing production capacity can also refer to this method.

　　This also has a great impact on individual households.

　　Conclusion: Although we have repeatedly emphasized scale and intensification, the free-range households that are more suitable for China’s national conditions cannot disappear in a short time.

　　After the pig industry suffered losses, large and small pig farms have made corresponding adjustments.
Large-scale pig farms have stopped their expansion.
Pig farms that have not yet been built have been temporarily abandoned, and construction of pig farms that are already under construction has been temporarily suspended
.
Small and medium-sized pig farms have begun to eliminate low-capacity sows, and small-scale farmers will eliminate sows, reduce the stock, and directly abandon the heavier ones
.
Although the number of live pigs continued to increase in July, the number of fertile sows in July fell by 0.
5% compared to June, which was the first month-on-month decline since October 2019
.
tpA-，

　　Some experts worry that with the decline in pig prices, the enthusiasm of pig farmers to develop production has been frustrated, coupled with the tightening of environmental protection and insurance policies after production capacity is restored, the stagnant state of the pig market may be further magnified, and it has just recovered.
Production capacity will suffer a greater loss
.
What's more, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the disease, and the pig industry is very likely to be hit hard
.
tpA-，

　　In order to maintain the current production capacity, the pig industry has come to a "swift turn".
The task of "struggling the rivers and mountains" in the previous two years to quickly restore production capacity has been adjusted to "stabilizing the rivers and mountains" to stabilize pig production and ensure market supply
.
In order to cope with "stabilizing the rivers and mountains", the state has recently released three changes, and these changes all involve scattered-raising households.
What impact will they have on them?tpA-，

　　Improve the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical regulation mechanism of pig production capacitytpA-，

　　The pig breeding cycle has always been a vicious circle that pig farmers cannot avoid.
Pig prices have risen (like September 2019-March 2021), pig farmers have increased, and the number of pigs on hand and available for slaughter has increased significantly, and the supply of pork has exceeded demand.
It became an oversupply and prices fell.
As the price of pigs fell, pig farmers began to lose money, and some pig farms began to eliminate production capacity.
When the production capacity was eliminated to the extent that the supply of pork fell short of demand, the price of pigs began to rise again and entered the next cycle
.
Due to the existence of the pig cycle, the price of pigs has skyrocketed and plummeted.
"Pigs hurt farmers because pigs are cheap, and pigs hurt people.
" Regardless of whether they go up or down, there will always be an injured party.
The relatively reasonable price that it is not difficult for residents to eat meat is the key
.
The counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical regulation mechanism of pig production capacity is one of the most effective ways
.
tpA-，

　　Establishing a counter-cyclical regulation mechanism for pig production is to grasp the "master switch" of the production and market supply of reproductive sows, and set the monthly year-on-year change rate of reproductive sows plus or minus 5% and 10% as the control benchmark.
Establish an automatic triggering regulation mechanism for abnormal changes, with the focus on avoiding an excessive drop in the stock of breeding sows that would bury hidden supply hazards
.
tpA-，

　　Recently, the "Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Pig Industry" jointly issued by the six departments recently pointed out that a countercyclical control mechanism should be established with the number of reproductive sows as the core indicator, and the control policies and measures should be improved and strengthened.
The "pig cycle" fluctuates
.
The specific implementation is to reduce the index tasks such as the number of breeding sows and the number of large-scale breeding farms (households) to all provinces, and each province will complete its own goals, and finally the national goal can be completed
.
tpA-，

　　Although it seems to have a great relationship with large-scale pig farms, it is actually very helpful to individual farmers, because compared with the stable breeding of large-scale pig farms, the changes of individual farmers are more frequent, and the pig cycle is more important.
The impact of individual farmers is even greater.
A large number of individual farmers are used to selling pigs at low prices.
Pigs are expensive to buy pigs.
They always enter when the price is high and exit when the price is low.
Although they have been busy for several years, they finally failed.
Make money
.
With this kind of regulation mechanism, free-range farmers can infer the number of live pigs available for slaughter in the next 10 months based on the specific stock of reproductive sows, and combined with the demand for pork consumption, they can calculate whether the supply of pigs is surplus or insufficient.
If there is a surplus, sows can be properly eliminated, and if there is a shortage, the stock can be increased appropriately.
In this way, the pig cycle can be steadily grasped, so as to ensure stable profits without loss
.
tpA-，

　　As soon as possible to integrate 43% of small-scale farmers into the process of agricultural modernizationtpA-，

　　Although the occurrence of non-pest disease and the operation of superimposed pig cycles have accelerated the large-scale process of pig breeding in China, as of the end of 2020, the number of pigs on large-scale pig farms with an annual output of more than 500 pigs accounted for the total number of pigs in the country.
57% of the pigs, which means that there are 43% of the pigs in the hands of scattered farmers, and the increase or decrease of this part of the pigs is the key to determining the increase or decrease of China’s production capacity
.
tpA-，

　　To stabilize the national production capacity, first of all, we must stabilize the enthusiasm of individual farmers for breeding
.
Compared with large-scale pig farms, the disadvantages of individual farmers are poor management, poor disease prevention and control capabilities, and poor risk resistance.
If you want to stabilize the production capacity of individual farmers, you need to be in the context of disadvantages
.
tpA-，

　　Poor management can be achieved through the establishment of breeding cooperatives to gather scattered households and unify the original purchases of feed and veterinary drugs to strengthen management
.
Poor anti-risk ability can use the form of "company + farmer" or the form of trusteeship to "bundle" scattered households with leading enterprises to enhance the ability of scattered households to resist risks
.
Poor disease prevention and control capabilities should strengthen the training of pig farmers and share breeding techniques
.
tpA-，

　　Formulate implementation measures for pig production capacity controltpA-，

　　In 2019, in order to accelerate the recovery of live pig production capacity in China, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Three-Year Action Plan for Accelerating the Recovery and Development of Live Pig Production", which compacted the production capacity recovery target to governments at all levels.
With the joint efforts of all regions, we completed the production capacity ahead of schedule.
The goal of recovery, the facts have proved that this kind of person responsible, data materialization, and sinking are very effective measures
.
tpA-，

　　The current goal of stabilizing production capacity can also refer to this method.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is beginning to formulate an implementation plan for the regulation of pig production capacity.
It will also clarify indicators such as the number of breeding sows and the number of large-scale pig farms
.
It also requires that areas where farm households suffer serious losses should promptly introduce policies such as temporary assistance subsidies and loan interest subsidies
.
tpA-，

　　This also has a great impact on individual households.
In order to stabilize production capacity, environmental protection, land use, insurance, and financial policies are expected to be continuously and stably implemented
.
In addition, the temporary assistance subsidy has been clarified.
In the face of the loss of pig prices, pig farmers have more confidence in continuing to raise pigs
.
tpA-，

　　Conclusion: Although we have repeatedly emphasized scale and intensification, the free-range households that are more suitable for China’s national conditions cannot disappear in a short time.
From the recent policy adjustments, the superiors are also aware of the importance of free-range households to the pig industry in China.
It is also believed that more favorable policies will be tilted towards our free-range households in the future
.
tpA-，