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The star anise scenery is no longer there, and the downward pressure has increased sharply!

 Last Update: 2022-10-19
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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In 2021, the star anise market created a new historical sky-high price
after breaking through the 100-yuan mark.
Stimulated by high prices, the production and management of star anise was gradually strengthened, and production capacity was quickly restored
to a large extent.
In 2022, due to the cooling and rainfall during the critical period of star anise growth, can the market usher in a new turnaround? In this issue, the big data platform of Tiandi Cloud Map Chinese medicine industry analyzes the market of this variety based on production and sales data
.
First, the market changes: affected by the import source, sales have slowed down Market situation: new production is still continuing, due to the impact of the increase in imported goods, buyers are cautious, the source of sales is based on actual demand, the holder is actively selling, the market is slightly pulling back, the current market eighty percent of dry water scalded star anise is priced at 53-56 yuan (kg price, the same below), and the price of dried water scalded star anise is 67-70 yuan
。 Origin information: new production continues, driven by demand, recently to the production area to see the increase of merchants, because of the impact of Vietnamese goods, the source of goods sales is not ideal, many merchants actively sell, the market has declined, the current production area fresh fruit star anise price 16-17 yuan, sulfur-free star anise spring fruit price of 50-52 yuan, sulfur-free red star anise price 60-62 yuan
。 2.
Production changes: low temperature and heavy rainfall during the production period, and the yield is significantly reduced Figure 1: Changes in temperature and rainfall in Nanning, Wuzhou and Baise from January to September 2022 From the perspective of temperature changes: the temperature in the first half of 2022 is generally lower than the same period
in 2021.
In the first half of 2022, the average temperature in Nanning, Wuzhou and Baise regions of Guangxi was 2.
2 degrees Celsius
lower than the same period in 2021.
Especially in February-April, the temperature is low during the critical stage of star anise's growth, resulting in higher flowering than usual for
most plants.
From the perspective of rainfall changes: the total amount of rainfall in the first half of 2022 is generally higher than the same period in
2021.
In the first half of 2022, the average rainfall in Nanning, Wuzhou and Baise increased by 59.
9mm
compared to the same period in 2021.
Especially during the pollination period of star anise from March to May, pollination is poor due to continuous heavy rainfall
.
Overall, due to low temperatures and continuous heavy rainfall in 2022, star anise has fallen heavily and pollinated poorly, and overall production capacity has declined
.
Third, historical prices: sky-high prices stimulate production management to strengthen Figure 2: 1988.
01-2022.
09 Star anise (red star anise) market changes From the perspective of market changes: the star anise market has gone through 3 stages: The first stage (1988-2001): due to the aging of plants and the decline in production capacity, star anise ushered in the first sky-high price
.
The price of star anise rose from the lowest 6.
5 yuan in 1990 to the highest of 100 yuan in 2001, an increase of 15.
67 times, with a compound growth rate of 26.
42%.

The first stage lasted 14 years, and under the first sky-high price stimulus, the production areas expanded the planting and production of star anise, laying the groundwork for the long volatile market behind
.
Phase II (2002-2021): Years of successive years of abnormal climate, coupled with the intensification of pests and diseases, star anise ushered in a second sky-high price
.
After the new production in 2001, star anise ushered in a cliff-like diving market, the price fell from 100 yuan to 30 yuan that year, and fell to the lowest 7.
5 yuan in 2006, the overall decline reached 92.
50%.

Because the price is lower than the agricultural price, the enthusiasm for production in various places has been seriously frustrated, and in the state of unmanaged, the fruit rate of star anise plants is extremely unstable, coupled with the repeated occurrence of abnormal weather, resulting in the market beginning to fluctuate upward
.
The price rose from the lowest 7.
5 yuan in 2006 to the highest 105 yuan in 2001, an increase of 13 times, with a compound growth rate of 27.
11%.

The second stage lasted 11 years, stimulated by the second sky-high price, all producing areas re-emphasized the planting and production of star anise, and at the same time, some star anise plants with serious decline in production capacity were replaced
by replacement.
The third stage (2022): The temperature is low and the rainfall continues during the critical growth period, and the star anise market ushers in a rapid rebound
.
In the first half of 2022, due to the impact of low temperature and rainfall, star anise's market price also increased from 55 yuan in January 2022 to 70 yuan in September 2022, an increase of 27.
27%.

At present, star anise plants are generally still in their prime production period, although this year due to climate reasons led to a decline in domestic production capacity, but with the resumption of import and export trade, the import and supply of star anise to a certain extent alleviated the pressure
of insufficient raw material supply.
4.
Changes in income: higher than growers' expectations, considerable returns Figure 3: 2020.
01-2022.
09 Net income of star anise mu From the perspective of net income from mu yield: At present, the overall income is considerable, and the enthusiasm of growers in production and management is high
.
It takes 3 years for star anise to bear fruit from planting to fruit, followed by nearly 100 years of harvesting, of which the first 20 years are the peak fruiting period and the production capacity is large
.
From January to March 2020, due to the shortage of star anise, the net income of mu production increased, from 6440 yuan per mu to 19040 yuan, an increase of 195.
65%.

From April to October 2021, supply exceeded demand, and the net income of star anise mu began to retrace, falling from 19,040 yuan per mu to 6,440 yuan, a decrease of 66.
18%.

From November 2021 to September 2022, due to the rapid decline in the market and the impact of cooling rainfall in the first half of 2022, the net income of mu yield increased again with the market rebound, rising from 8120 yuan per mu to 11690 yuan, an increase of 43.
97%.

From January 2020 to September 2022, the average net income of star anise per mu was 10,920 yuan
.
At present, the net income of star anise mu is still higher than the average net income per mu, and in the past 3 years, the net income of star anise per mu is generally higher than the level of 6,000 yuan, compared with grain, fruits and vegetables and other cash crops, star anise because of its extensive management and considerable income, so that the production and management enthusiasm of growers in the production area continues to rise
.
5.
Changes in demand: export volume gradually declines, import volume steadily climbs Figure 4: 2022.
01-2022.
08 Changes in import and export trade of star anise From the perspective of exports: global inflation continues and international demand is weak
.
In the second quarter of 2022, the total export volume of star anise was 2396.
3 tons, down 1.
74%
from 2438.
80 tons in the first quarter.
From July to August 2022, the total export volume of star anise was only 1390.
7 tons, accounting for 58.
04% of the total export volume in the second quarter, and the overall performance was not optimistic
.
From the import situation: the epidemic situation eased, customs clearance trade returned to normal, and the import volume of star anise increased
.
In July 2022, as Vietnam star anise gradually entered the new production season, the tight supply situation in China was eased
to a certain extent.
Imports of star anise increased by 42.
86%
from 15.
4 tons in July to 22.
0 tons in August.
If there is no obvious outbreak of the global new crown epidemic in the later stage, the import volume of star anise will still maintain steady growth
.
VI.
Summary 1.
There is a quantity in the land area, and it is generally in the peak production period Under the stimulation of the first high price, star anise in each producing area ushered in an unprecedented large-scale production, because the peak production period of star anise is as long as 20 years, so the current plant growth in the production area is generally in the peak production period, as long as the management is strengthened, the overall production capacity can be quickly restored
.
2.
The global economy is weak, and the overall consumption of star anise has declined significantly The impact of the cold winter in the catering industry and global inflation on the spice category is far-reaching, and from 2018 to 2021, the overall social demand for star anise has shrunk by about
20%.
3.
Customs clearance trade resumes, and the contradiction between supply and demand can be eased The global new crown epidemic has been largely controlled, border trade of various countries has gradually resumed, supplemented by imported sources, and the tight supply and demand of star anise has been eased
.
In summary, the production and management of star anise will continue to be strengthened, and production will be quickly restored; The effective replenishment of imported resources and the obvious decline in domestic consumer demand have doubled the rebound pressure of star anise
.
Then, the next month will be a key turning point in the star anise market, once the production of new listings is significantly increased and sales are not smooth, people panic, and the variety may be greeted by a wave of "defeat like a mountain"
.
Unless there is a strong pull of demand recovery or strong capital intervention, it can curb its rapid decline
.

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