The spot price of soybean in China is difficult to rise before the end of the year

Introduction: since late September, soybean harvesting in China has started from south to north However, the purchase price of soybeans is not as high as expected, but lower than last year's price level As the market generally expects that soybean prices will not improve, the current farmers' soybean sales are relatively stable, and there is no reluctance to sell I think this kind of depressed price trend will continue, and it is expected to be difficult to improve by the end of the year First of all, from the perspective of domestic soybean supply, according to the estimation of the Ministry of agriculture, China's soybean output this year is about 15 million-15.5 million tons, basically the same as last year; this year, the number of imported soybeans in China will exceed any previous year, according to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, by the end of September, China has imported 11.1634 million tons of soybeans, a significant increase of 33.7% compared with the same period last year The import of soybeans from January to September this year has exceeded that of the whole year last year by 10.42 million tons According to the U.S Department of agriculture, China's soybean imports are expected to reach 14 million tons this year In this way, the annual soybean supply in China will reach 29 million tons Secondly, due to the increase of imports, China's soybean consumption this year shows a significant oversupply China's soybean crushing demand (17 million tons) and other uses (8 million tons), the total amount is about 25 million tons, which is significantly higher than the supply In June, China issued the regulations on the safety management of genetically modified organisms, but this only restricted the export of American soybeans to China, not the large export of South American soybeans to China From the perspective of July, August and September, China's soybean import has always been at a very high level The reason lies in the promulgation of the regulations, which leads to the market expectation that China's soybean supply will be reduced in the future, and it is generally believed that soybean prices will rise as a result, so many domestic traders are attracted to actively increase the import volume, among which there is a certain psychology of hoarding Results the promulgation of the "Regulations" was contrary to our wishes Soybean imports not only did not decrease, but increased significantly, which led to the low price of domestic soybean stocks before harvest Third, the international soybean supply has also exceeded the record, which has also put great pressure on the soybean price in China The USDA's October production report forecasts US soybean production of 2.907 billion bushels in 2001, which is 149 million bushels higher than that in 2000, creating a new record The global soybean production in 2001 / 02 market is expected to be 6638 million bushels, which is 275 million bushels higher than that in 2000 / 01 market Such a large increase in supply has led to the decline of soybean prices in the world Due to China's relatively low 3% tariff on imported soybeans, it is said that China's soybean market has fully integrated into the international soybean market When the international soybean price falls, the domestic soybean price inevitably falls At present, China is in the period of soybean harvesting, but with the settlement of the soybean trade dispute between China and the United States this week, the United States has already shipped two ships of soybeans to China, and this momentum will continue to develop So this has brought more pressure to the already depressed domestic soybean price According to the current situation, this year's soybean output is roughly the same as last year's, and the market price is not as good as previous years, so the enthusiasm of local farmers is not high Some farmers have said that if this situation can not be improved, then the planting area of soybean will be reduced next year To sum up, as supply and demand are the most critical factors determining the price, it is estimated that the low price trend of China's soybean will be difficult to change before the end of the year based on the analysis of the current supply and demand situation of the soybean market.