The soybean price in 2003 will still rise

Introduction: Recently, Huang Xiao of R & D center of pioneer futures brokerage Co., Ltd thinks that the supply and demand situation of domestic soybean market in 2003 is not as tense as that in 2002, and the price may rise, but it will not be as rapid as that in 2002, and the range will be reduced accordingly According to LCE Huang Xiao, 2003 In, the soybean market of our country will present the following characteristics: LCE first, the soybean crushing design capacity continues to grow rapidly In recent years, the soybean crushing capacity of our country has gradually increased In particular, the price of soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil rose last year, and the squeezing profit of oil and fat squeezing enterprises rose, greatly stimulating the expansion of the squeezing industry At present, the daily primary pressing capacity of soybeans in China has reached 150000 tons, and the annual design processing capacity has reached 45 million tons In addition, a number of soybean processing projects in South China, East China, southwest, central China and Northeast China are under construction, reconstruction and expansion and have been approved The daily primary pressing capacity at the end of 2003 is expected to be close to 170000 tons, It will inevitably intensify the competition for raw materials among crushing enterprises LCE 2 is that soybean import is expected to reach a new high Regardless of the consumption prospect of soybean meal and soybean oil in the future and the market prospect of soybean meal export in China, the rapid expansion of processing capacity itself means that soybean processing volume will grow rapidly In the case of obvious shortage of domestic soybean supply capacity, The further growth of soybean import demand has taken on the trend of the general trend, and the actual import volume will continue to increase Regardless of the degree of leniency and strictness of China's future implementation of the GM policy, its restrictions on soybean import activities and import volume will eventually weaken, This is also in line with the macro-economic atmosphere after China's accession to the WTO At present, Brazil's soybean import problem is gradually being solved, and it is expected that the difficulty of South America's soybean import will not be too great LCE China's soybean import volume in 2002 / 03 will be at least 14 million tons, which is expected to be 1.5 million tons higher than the previous period, 3.6 million tons higher than the previous year, reaching the highest level in history , and will increase 800000 tons compared with the existing record of 13.24 million tons in 2000 / 01 According to the latest report of the U.S Department of agriculture, the actual demand for imported soybeans in 2002 / 03 will be far higher than 14 million tons, and it is expected to be about 15 million tons LCE will continue to expand rapidly in 2002 / 03 due to the primary extraction capacity of soybeans in China, which will drive the import of soybeans to a new high It is expected that the total consumption of soybean oil in this year will also show a significant growth trend, reaching more than 22 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons year on year, an increase of 1.8 million tons compared with the previous highest level of 20.2 million tons, the consumption of imported soybeans is expected to be 14 million tons, and the consumption of domestic soybeans is expected to be 8 million tons, The consumption of imported soybean oil is expected to account for 63% of the total amount of oil, and the consumption of domestic soybean oil is expected to fall to 37% of the total amount of oil, reaching the historical highest and lowest values respectively The rapid growth of the consumption of soybean oil in LCE 2002 / 03 will promote the production of soybean oil and soybean meal to increase to the historical highest level of 3.7 million tons and 17.24 million tons, 15% and 17.24 million tons respectively year on year 13% As the soybean oil import is expected to reach 1 million tons in this year, the new supply of soybean oil will reach 4.7 million tons, an increase of 31% year on year The growth of oil consumption and oil meal supply is obviously difficult to keep pace with the growth of oil meal consumption Unless the export volume increases substantially, the supply of soybean oil and soybean meal will show a surplus trend, The surplus of soybean oil will be more obvious The total consumption of soybean oil will reach a record high of 4 million tons, an increase of 7%, of which the consumption of domestic food is expected to reach 3.4 million tons, an increase of 6%; The total consumption of soybean meal will reach a historical highest level of nearly 17 million tons, an increase of 5%, of which the domestic feed consumption is expected to be 15.2 million tons, an increase of 5% LCE in summary, the total supply of soybean oil in 2002 / 03 will be significantly surplus, and the supply of soybean meal will be slightly surplus Considering the shortage of oil meal supply in 2001 / 02（ Imported soybean oil began to be concentrated in Hong Kong at the end of this year), the excess level of 2002 / 03 will be weakened, and the supply-demand relationship of soybean meal is expected to be generally balanced, but the soybean oil market will still be significantly oversupplied, which means that the price of soybean meal will be relatively stable in this year, and the price of soybean oil will have a large space to fall, There is a possibility of high inflation in the short and medium term, but the long-term pressure is great As for the futures market, at present, the term price of Liandou is still strong From the weekly chart, the term price is still possible to rise However, the term price on the monthly chart has been overbought, and there are callback requirements on the market Wave analysis shows that the current term price is in the fifth rising wave, The period price is close to the rising channel and on track Due to the weak support in fundamentals, it is less likely to rise sharply again The target position of the five wave upward is around 2778 yuan, and the later period price will have a large falling adjustment process, with the falling target position around 2450 yuan