The soybean market of Heilongjiang Province will be vigorous in the near future

Introduction: the change of soybean price in Heilongjiang Province has always attracted the attention of the national grain market, especially after China's accession to the WTO, the trend of soybean market price in Heilongjiang Province has become the focus of the grain market According to the soybean market situation of 2001 / 2002 in Heilongjiang Province and the factors influencing the market price, the author makes the following analysis on the recent soybean market price trend: first, the soybean market situation of Heilongjiang Province at the present stage In 2002, the soybean planting area of Heilongjiang Province was 42.976 million mu, a decrease of 55000 Mu over the previous year, and the output is expected to reach nearly 5.1 million tons this year In recent years, with the advantage of "high quality and low price", the import volume of foreign soybeans has been increasing According to the latest statistics released by the customs, the import volume of soybeans in 1999 / 2000 was 10.42 million tons, and that in 2000 / 2001 was 13.24 million tons As a large number of imported soybeans flooded the domestic market, the price of domestic soybeans fell However, the soybean market in Heilongjiang Province has been greatly impacted by it Since the soybean was listed in October last year, the price has been in a low state Up to now, the purchase price has been at a low point of 1480 yuan / ton, a difference of 200 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2000 The price of the car board has been maintained at 1560-1640 yuan / ton Second, the factors that affect the market price of soybean in Heilongjiang Province 1 The implementation of transgenic rules will cause the reduction of the quantity of imported soybean in the short term The provisions on soybean import in the GM rules mainly include "if an overseas company exports agricultural genetically modified organisms to China as processing materials, it shall apply to the agricultural genetically modified organisms Management Office for the safety of agricultural genetically modified organisms, and the Ministry of Agriculture shall make a decision on approval or disapproval within 270 days from the date of application"; "import agricultural genetically modified organisms for production or use" For processing raw materials, the contract can only be signed after obtaining the safety certificate of agricultural genetically modified organisms issued by the Ministry of agriculture "That is to say, when overseas companies apply for the safety certificate and domestic importers obtain the import approval document, the import of soybeans will have uncertain factors and extend the import time, which will cause the shortage of imported soybeans in a short period of time Although some people think that the formal implementation of the detailed rules of genetically modified regulations will be on March 20, before this time, the willingness of traders to sign import contracts may increase, but it is said that this situation has been paid attention to by the relevant departments of the state, and there will be no sharp increase in the number of imported soybeans It can be predicted that the number of imported soybeans will decrease in the second quarter of this year 2 The improvement of people's consumption level will drive the increase of market demand for soybean Nowadays, people have higher and higher requirements for edible oil and bean based non-staple food, such as some refined barrel oil, which has good quality and is favored by consumers In the early stage of Spring Festival, it is also the peak season of consumption, and the purchase volume of residents will greatly increase Now, the price of edible oil in the market has risen by 20-30 yuan / ton, which will drive up the price of soybean Moreover, China's accession to the WTO has brought new opportunities to China's animal husbandry In particular, ASEAN and Hong Kong SAR have relaxed the restrictions on the import of local poultry products, further promoting the production and development of domestic animal husbandry In addition, due to the low price of imported soybeans and high oil yield, most of the southern pressing industry in recent years has imported soybeans as its production raw materials However, it is understood that at present, the soybean stored in domestic ports is being digested rapidly, and the recent soybean import contracts signed are not many Even if orders are placed from now on, they will arrive at the port at least three months later Then, some southern merchants will focus on the soybean market of Heilongjiang Province, the main soybean producing area, and carry out the "North Grain South transfer" under the condition of "far hydrolysis but near thirst" It can be seen from the above comprehensive factors that: with the increase of consumption, the market demand for soybeans has increased However, the implementation of the GM rules will suppress the import of soybeans in the first half of the year, and in the short term, "one increase and one decrease" will bring new opportunities to the soybean market Southern processing enterprises will pay more attention to the main soybean producing areas Therefore, as the main soybean producing areas, Heilongjiang soybean city will become the main soybean producing area The venue will be full of vitality The market price of soybean in our province will also rise in the near future.