The situation and Prospect of soybean market in the United States

Introduction: 1 US soybean production is higher than the market estimate: USDA estimated that US soybean production in November increased by 16 million bushels compared with the forecast in October This is higher than the industry's expected average Since 1950, 30 years have reported higher soybean yield in November than in October In 19 of these years, final soybean production was higher than that reported in November, with an average increase of 1.4% Based on this analysis, it is highly likely that the final output will increase 2 The highest record number of soybean export commitments: as of mid November, the number of US soybean export commitments was 577 million bushels, higher than 454 million bushels in the same period last year, the highest in 25 years The average export commitment for the same period was 374 million bushels The U.S Department of agriculture predicted in November that U.S soybean exports in 2001 / 02 were 980 million bushels the same as those in October, down 18 million bushels from 2000 / 01 According to the analysis of export commitments on November 15, it means that 59% of the annual export volume forecast has been ordered As of mid November, the average ratio of export commitments to annual exports was 49% Based on the periodicity of export commitments and annual export volume, the average soybean export sales volume in the same period is about 482 million bushels U.S soybean export commitments to 12 EU countries are 127 million bushels, 7 million bushels higher than the same period last year It is estimated that the EU purchased 250 million bushels of us soybeans in 2001 / 02, about 3 million bushels higher than last year The number of soybean export commitments to Mexico was 55 million bushels, 15 million bushels lower than the same period last year Soybean export commitments to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China were lower than the same period last year The four Asian countries are expected to account for 47% of U.S soybean exports Over the same period, the four countries accounted for an average of 34% of total annual purchases The figures for these export commitments are likely to be incorrect as 105 million bushels of export sales are registered as unknown Unknown land sales accounted for 32% of total sales and 18% of soybean export commitments The U.S Department of agriculture forecasts that soybean meal exports in 2001 / 02 will be 250000 tons higher than last month, to 7.65 million tons 50000 tons higher than the export volume in 2000 / 01 So far, soybean meal export commitments are lower than meeting USDA's target exports As of November 15, the number of soybean meal export commitments was 3.017 million tons It is 1254000 tons higher than the same period of last year, higher than the average value of 2215000 tons in the same period of 25 years During the same period, the average proportion of soybean meal export orders to the total annual volume was 35% This year's export commitments account for 39% of the USDA's target Based on the periodicity of the proportion of export commitments to total annual exports, the average of soybean meal export commitments so far is about 2.645 million tons In its November supply and demand report, the U.S Department of agriculture expected U.S soybean oil exports to be 2.45 billion pounds in 2001 / 02 It is unchanged from the forecast in October, but 71% higher than the export volume in 2000 / 01 As of November 15, soybean oil export commitments were 549 million pounds In the same period, the average proportion of soybean oil export orders to the annual total is about 25% This year's commitments account for 22% of the annual target exports Based on the periodicity of the proportion of export commitments to total annual exports, the average value of soybean oil export sales volume in the same period is about 612 million pounds It should be emphasized that soybean meal and soybean oil market year starts from October 1, one month later than soybean market year Therefore, the early soybean meal and soybean oil export data are relatively large But by mid January, the average soybean meal export order was 50% By mid February, the average number of soybean oil export commitments was 50% 3 The soybean stock in the United States increased, and the expected price fell: the U.S Department of agriculture slightly adjusted the balance of soybean supply and demand in 2001 / 02 Supply increased by 17 million bushels at the beginning of the period, but inventory is expected to increase by 10 million bushels at the end of the period Now the proportion of inventory / consumption is expected to be 13%, higher than last year's 9% Soybean futures fell as expected in the USDA supply and demand report In 2001 / 02, the recent soybean contract price showed seasonality Seasonality as a 20-year benchmark The average loss on buying a put option in March was 6 cents / bushel The average profit from buying put options in July was 9 cents / bushel Soybean storage costs include farm storage costs and commercial storage costs Interest cost is calculated based on current compound interest There is not much profit in storing soybeans Farm and commercial soybean stocks lost an average of about 13 cents per bushel through mid February But by the middle of June, the average farm soybean storage profit was 8 cents / bushel, while the commercial storage loss was 3 cents / bushel The price of december february contract soybean futures appears as a seasonal cyclical pattern, but the average price of March July contract is lower than expected This means futures prices may be too low relative to the latest USDA price forecast If the number of soybean export commitments keeps the highest record process, and the market crush volume in the first two months of the year is the second highest on record, then the soybean futures price may rise from the current price On the other hand, it is further estimated that soybean production in South America will increase In addition, if the export declines, the squeezing volume is lower than expected, or the market expects that the decline of soybean planting area in 2002 in the United States has not become a reality, the soybean price may weaken 4 The price of soybean futures in November often reached $6.50/bushel: many soybean producers are worried that the price of soybean in the next year will be as low as this year, and are considering the price strategy for 2002 soybean crops In December 2000, the U.S soybean futures contract in November 2002 reached $5.63/bushel The contract recently sold for $4.60 per bushel Since 1973, there is an 86% probability that the futures contract in November will break through the price of 6.50 USD / bushel There is a 62% probability that the price will exceed 7.0 USD / bushel Over the same period, there is a 14% probability that the final price of the November contract will be less than $4.75/bushel If the potential for the futures contract price to rise in November 2002 is about 6.0-6.5 USD / bushel, producers will wait until spring to make a decision when they price their expected soybean crops If producers plan to price between $6.0 - $6.50 per bushel for 25% - 30% of their expected soybeans, they can now consider buying September futures flat put options The purchase price of put option is between 5.60-6.0 USD / bushel (the average value is about 1.0-1.40 USD / bushel), and the premium price is kept at 7-9 cents / bushel Then by the time prices rise in the spring of next year, some crops can be sold out, but the September options purchased in the early winter can also be closed (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: